现货比特币 ETF 引发供应冲击风险

由于美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的需求激增远远超出预期，全球最大的加密货币可能面临供应冲击的风险。

As the dust settles on a tumultuous December in the crypto markets, fresh data reveals a fascinating tale of surging demand for Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States, a phenomenon that could herald the impending arrival of a BTC supply shock.

随着加密货币市场动荡的 12 月尘埃落定，最新数据揭示了美国现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 需求激增的迷人故事，这一现象可能预示着 BTC 供应冲击即将到来。

According to the latest report from Blockchain.com, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs acquired an impressive 51,500 BTC in December. In stark contrast, BTC miners brought a mere 13,850 coins into the market during this same period. This striking disparity highlights the immense scale of the demand disparity, with ETFs alone purchasing nearly four times the amount of BTC generated and supplied by miners that month.

根据 Blockchain.com 的最新报告，美国现货比特币 ETF 在 12 月份购买了令人印象深刻的 51,500 BTC。与此形成鲜明对比的是，同期 BTC 矿工仅向市场投放了 13,850 个比特币。这种惊人的差异凸显了需求差异的巨大规模，仅 ETF 就购买了当月矿商生产和供应的 BTC 数量的近四倍。

This surging demand for ETFs was nothing short of extraordinary, outpacing the available supply by an astonishing 272%, as reported by Blockworks. This massive increase in demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs has raised concerns about a potential BTC supply shock, with some analysts predicting that it could be on the horizon.

据 Blockworks 报道，对 ETF 的需求激增简直是非同寻常，其供应量超出了惊人的 272%。对现货比特币 ETF 的需求大幅增加引发了人们对潜在的 BTC 供应冲击的担忧，一些分析师预测这种情况可能即将发生。

Crypto analyst Lark Davis announced earlier in December that “a massive supply shock is coming,” basing this alarming forecast on the significant accumulation of BTC from US Spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the time, Davis reported that BTC ETFs had purchased an astonishing 21,423 BTC, while miners had only managed to produce around 3,150 BTC over the same period.

加密货币分析师 Lark Davis 在 12 月初宣布，“大规模的供应冲击即将到来”，这一令人震惊的预测是基于美国现货比特币 ETF 中 BTC 的大量积累。当时，戴维斯报告称，BTC ETF 已购买了惊人的 21,423 枚 BTC，而同期矿商仅生产了约 3,150 枚 BTC。

The analyst also highlighted the impressive holdings of BTC ETFs, with around 1,311,579 BTC in their coffers as of December 17, 2024. This vast quantity, valued at $139 billion, constitutes a substantial 6.24% of BTC's total supply of 19.8 million. Given this staggering figure, Davis anticipates that during peak bull market phases, Spot Bitcoin ETFs could hold 10-20% of BTC’s total supply, raising more concerns about a major supply shock.

这位分析师还强调了 BTC ETF 的持有量，截至 2024 年 12 月 17 日，其金库中约有 1,311,579 枚 BTC。这一数量庞大，价值 1,390 亿美元，占 BTC 总供应量 1,980 万的 6.24%。鉴于这一惊人的数字，戴维斯预计，在牛市高峰阶段，现货比特币 ETF 可能持有 BTC 总供应量的 10-20%，这引发了人们对重大供应冲击的更多担忧。

Data from Glassnode reveals that Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $4.63 billion in December, nearly doubling their 2024 monthly average of $2.77 billion. Interestingly, Glassnode reports that the surge in Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows was concentrated in the first half of the month, with outflows being recorded in the second half, except for December 26.

Glassnode 的数据显示，12 月份现货比特币 ETF 净流入总额为 46.3 亿美元，几乎是 2024 年月均值 27.7 亿美元的两倍。有趣的是，Glassnode 报告称，现货比特币 ETF 流入的激增集中在上半月，而流出则出现在下半年（12 月 26 日除外）。

Unsurprisingly, the timing of this surge and subsequent decline in Bitcoin ETF inflows aligns with BTC’s price movements in December. At the beginning of the month, BTC experienced upward momentum, skyrocketing to a new all-time high (ATH) above $108,000 on December 17, fueled by the bull market hype and soaring demand. However, following this peak, BTC’s price saw a sharp decline, a drop that coincided with the timing of significant outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, as reported by Glassnode.

不出所料，比特币 ETF 流入量激增和随后下降的时间与 12 月份 BTC 的价格走势一致。本月初，在牛市炒作和需求飙升的推动下，BTC出现上涨势头，于12月17日飙升至108,000美元以上的历史新高（ATH）。然而，据 Glassnode 报道，在这一峰值之后，比特币的价格急剧下跌，这一下跌恰逢现货比特币 ETF 大量资金流出的时间。

Despite the surge in demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs in December, new data shows that investors have extended their accumulation trend into January 2025. On January 3, investors purchased over $900 million worth of BTC through Spot Bitcoin ETFs. More recently, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs acquired an additional 9,500 BTC, valued at over $966 million at the current market price

尽管12月现货比特币ETF的需求激增，但新数据显示，投资者已将增持趋势延续至2025年1月。1月3日，投资者通过现货比特币ETF购买了价值超过9亿美元的BTC。最近，美国现货比特币 ETF 又购买了 9,500 枚 BTC，按当前市场价格计算价值超过 9.66 亿美元