現貨比特幣 ETF 引發供應衝擊風險

由於美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的需求激增遠遠超出預期，全球最大的加密貨幣可能面臨供應衝擊的風險。

As the dust settles on a tumultuous December in the crypto markets, fresh data reveals a fascinating tale of surging demand for Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States, a phenomenon that could herald the impending arrival of a BTC supply shock.

隨著加密貨幣市場動盪的 12 月塵埃落定，最新數據揭示了美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 需求激增的迷人故事，這一現象可能預示著 BTC 供應衝擊即將到來。

According to the latest report from Blockchain.com, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs acquired an impressive 51,500 BTC in December. In stark contrast, BTC miners brought a mere 13,850 coins into the market during this same period. This striking disparity highlights the immense scale of the demand disparity, with ETFs alone purchasing nearly four times the amount of BTC generated and supplied by miners that month.

根據 Blockchain.com 的最新報告，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 在 12 月購買了令人印象深刻的 51,500 BTC。與此形成鮮明對比的是，同期 BTC 礦工僅向市場投放了 13,850 個比特幣。這種驚人的差異凸顯了需求差異的巨大規模，僅 ETF 就購買了當月礦商生產和供應的 BTC 數量的近四倍。

This surging demand for ETFs was nothing short of extraordinary, outpacing the available supply by an astonishing 272%, as reported by Blockworks. This massive increase in demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs has raised concerns about a potential BTC supply shock, with some analysts predicting that it could be on the horizon.

根據 Blockworks 報導，對 ETF 的需求激增簡直是非同尋常，其供應量超出了驚人的 272%。對現貨比特幣 ETF 的需求大幅增加引發了人們對潛在的 BTC 供應衝擊的擔憂，一些分析師預測這種情況可能即將發生。

Crypto analyst Lark Davis announced earlier in December that “a massive supply shock is coming,” basing this alarming forecast on the significant accumulation of BTC from US Spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the time, Davis reported that BTC ETFs had purchased an astonishing 21,423 BTC, while miners had only managed to produce around 3,150 BTC over the same period.

加密貨幣分析師 Lark Davis 在 12 月初宣布，“大規模的供應衝擊即將到來”，這一令人震驚的預測是基於美國現貨比特幣 ETF 中 BTC 的大量積累。當時，戴維斯報告稱，BTC ETF 已購買了驚人的 21,423 枚 BTC，而同期礦商僅生產了約 3,150 枚 BTC。

The analyst also highlighted the impressive holdings of BTC ETFs, with around 1,311,579 BTC in their coffers as of December 17, 2024. This vast quantity, valued at $139 billion, constitutes a substantial 6.24% of BTC's total supply of 19.8 million. Given this staggering figure, Davis anticipates that during peak bull market phases, Spot Bitcoin ETFs could hold 10-20% of BTC’s total supply, raising more concerns about a major supply shock.

這位分析師也強調了BTC ETF 的持有量，截至2024 年12 月17 日，其金庫中約有1,311,579 枚BTC。 %。鑑於這個驚人的數字，戴維斯預計，在牛市高峰階段，現貨比特幣 ETF 可能持有 BTC 總供應量的 10-20%，這引發了人們對重大供應衝擊的更多擔憂。

Data from Glassnode reveals that Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $4.63 billion in December, nearly doubling their 2024 monthly average of $2.77 billion. Interestingly, Glassnode reports that the surge in Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows was concentrated in the first half of the month, with outflows being recorded in the second half, except for December 26.

Glassnode 的數據顯示，12 月現貨比特幣 ETF 淨流入總額為 46.3 億美元，幾乎是 2024 年月均值 27.7 億美元的兩倍。有趣的是，Glassnode 報告稱，現貨比特幣 ETF 流入的激增集中在上半月，而流出則出現在下半年（12 月 26 日除外）。

Unsurprisingly, the timing of this surge and subsequent decline in Bitcoin ETF inflows aligns with BTC’s price movements in December. At the beginning of the month, BTC experienced upward momentum, skyrocketing to a new all-time high (ATH) above $108,000 on December 17, fueled by the bull market hype and soaring demand. However, following this peak, BTC’s price saw a sharp decline, a drop that coincided with the timing of significant outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, as reported by Glassnode.

不出所料，比特幣 ETF 流入量激增和隨後下降的時間與 12 月 BTC 的價格走勢一致。本月初，在多頭炒作和需求飆升的推動下，BTC出現上漲勢頭，於12月17日飆升至108,000美元以上的歷史新高（ATH）。然而，據 Glassnode 報導，在這一高峰之後，比特幣的價格急劇下跌，這一下跌恰逢現貨比特幣 ETF 大量資金流出的時間。

Despite the surge in demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs in December, new data shows that investors have extended their accumulation trend into January 2025. On January 3, investors purchased over $900 million worth of BTC through Spot Bitcoin ETFs. More recently, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs acquired an additional 9,500 BTC, valued at over $966 million at the current market price

儘管12月現貨比特幣ETF的需求激增，但新數據顯示投資者已將增持趨勢延續至2025年1月。 。最近，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 又購買了 9,500 枚 BTC，以當前市場價格計算價值超過 9.66 億美元