现货比特币 ETF 资金流入量在减半前下降

现货比特币 ETF 最近的流入量有所下降，周四共流出 1.65 亿美元。在此之前，3 月中旬经历了一段时期的大量投资，该行业日均资金流入超过 10 亿美元。随着减半的临近，挖矿区块奖励将减少一半，人们猜测其对现货 ETF 需求的潜在影响，自 1 月份批准以来，现货 ETF 已吸引了 541 亿美元的管理资产。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Witness Declining Inflows Amidst Imminent Halving

现货比特币 ETF 在减半即将到来之际见证了资金流入下降

The spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recently witnessed a downturn in inflows, even turning negative at times. This comes as a stark contrast to mid-March, when investors flocked to ETFs, with the sector experiencing multiple daily inflows exceeding $1 billion.

现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）最近出现资金流入下降，甚至有时出现负值。这与 3 月中旬形成鲜明对比，当时投资者纷纷涌向 ETF，该行业日均资金流入超过 10 亿美元。

However, as the much-anticipated halving, where rewards for mining blocks will be slashed by half, draws near, experts ponder its potential impact on the demand for spot ETFs. Since their inception on January 10, these ETFs have accrued a significant $54.1 billion in assets under management, as per CoinGlass data.

然而，随着备受期待的减半（挖矿区块奖励将减少一半）的临近，专家们正在思考其对现货 ETF 需求的潜在影响。根据 CoinGlass 的数据，自 1 月 10 日成立以来，这些 ETF 的管理资产已累计达到 541 亿美元。

Historically, bitcoin halvings have served as catalysts for price surges within several months, owing in part to the reduced rate of new bitcoin supply. Consequently, such price highs have typically fueled increased demand.

从历史上看，比特币减半一直是几个月内价格飙升的催化剂，部分原因是新比特币供应量的减少。因此，如此高的价格通常会刺激需求的增加。

Nevertheless, Rune Bentien, general partner of Lyrik Ventures, believes this halving may unfold differently. In a Telegram message to Unchained, he emphasized that "the previous halvings have been in completely different [macro] environments, yet many seem to have forecasted a trajectory for this halving mirroring the previous ones."

尽管如此，Lyrik Ventures 的普通合伙人 Rune Bentien 认为，减半的情况可能会有所不同。在给 Unchained 的 Telegram 消息中，他强调“之前的减半是在完全不同的[宏观]环境中进行的，但许多人似乎预测了这次减半的轨迹与之前的情况一致。”

Bentien raises the possibility that bitcoin's price may not rise substantially post-halving due to substantial price gains already achieved as a result of strong ETF inflows.

Bentien 提出了一种可能性，即比特币价格在减半后可能不会大幅上涨，因为 ETF 的强劲流入已经导致价格大幅上涨。

On the other hand, downturns in BTC's price have historically had a limited impact on ETF outflows. This insight was highlighted in a recent research note by Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital's head of firmwide research, distributed to clients and counterparties.

另一方面，从历史上看，BTC 价格下跌对 ETF 流出的影响有限。 Galaxy Digital 全公司研究主管 Alex Thorn 在最近分发给客户和交易对手的一份研究报告中强调了这一见解。

According to Thorn, "aside from a few small outflows likely related to broader portfolio rebalancing, the only notable outflows continue to be from GBTC." While acknowledging that this trend may not persist, he expresses confidence that ETF buyers will maintain a "hodl" mentality, contributing to the long-term supply of bitcoin.

Thorn 表示，“除了可能与更广泛的投资组合再平衡相关的一些小额资金外流外，唯一值得注意的资金外流仍然来自 GBTC。”虽然他承认这种趋势可能不会持续下去，但他表示相信 ETF 买家将保持“hodl”心态，为比特币的长期供应做出贡献。

Bentien further anticipates that the sustained interest in US ETFs coupled with the heightened attention on BTC due to the halving could culminate in an explosion of demand for bitcoin ETFs.

Bentien 进一步预计，对美国 ETF 的持续兴趣，加上减半导致对 BTC 的高度关注，可能最终导致对比特币 ETF 的需求激增。

"Mainly due to the halving, I believe that the BTC ETF within the next 12 months will be the most successful ETF [sector] (in terms of growth in trading volume and total AUM) the world has seen," he proclaims.

“主要是由于减半，我相信未来 12 个月内 BTC ETF 将成为世界上最成功的 ETF [部门]（就交易量和总资产管理规模的增长而言），”他宣称。

The approaching halving introduces an element of uncertainty to the dynamics of spot bitcoin ETFs. While historical patterns suggest a potential surge in demand, the current macroeconomic climate and the influx of ETF inflows may alter this trajectory. It remains to be seen how these factors will interact and influence the future of spot bitcoin ETFs.

即将到来的减半给现货比特币 ETF 的动态带来了不确定性。虽然历史模式表明需求可能会激增，但当前的宏观经济环境和 ETF 资金的涌入可能会改变这一轨迹。这些因素将如何相互作用并影响现货比特币 ETF 的未来还有待观察。