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自 2022 年加密货币交易所 FTX 崩溃后暴跌以来,Solana 的 SOL 代币已反弹 900%。
Solana's (CRYPTO: SOL) native token has rebounded an impressive 900% since plummeting in the aftermath of crypto exchange FTX’s 2022 collapse.
Solana(加密货币代码:SOL)的原生代币自 2022 年加密货币交易所 FTX 崩溃后暴跌以来,已经反弹了 900%,令人印象深刻。
Still, Standard Chartered Bank believes SOL could quadruple by the end of 2025.
尽管如此,渣打银行认为 SOL 到 2025 年底可能会翻两番。
At current prices, that would put SOL at $560, valuing the blockchain at $264 billion.
按照目前的价格计算,SOL 的价格将为 560 美元,区块链的估值为 2640 亿美元。
Here are three factors that could determine SOL’s price in the coming months.
以下三个因素可能决定 SOL 未来几个月的价格。
The US election: Standard Chartered said its Solana price target is more justifiable if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House for a second term.
美国大选:渣打银行表示,如果前总统唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫连任,其 Solana 价格目标将更加合理。
A Trump administration “would be more supportive of the broader digital assets ecosystem than a Harris administration,” Standard Chartered global head of digital assets research Geoff Kendrick said in a recent report.
渣打银行数字资产研究全球主管 Geoff Kendrick 在最近的一份报告中表示,特朗普政府“将比哈里斯政府更支持更广泛的数字资产生态系统”。
“The introduction of a SOL ETF would also be more likely under a Trump presidency.”
“在特朗普担任总统期间,推出 SOL ETF 的可能性也更大。”
Some investors speculate that a spot Solana exchange-traded fund could be next after the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Ethereum ETFs earlier this year.
一些投资者猜测,继今年早些时候美国证券交易委员会批准现货以太坊 ETF 后,下一个可能是现货 Solana 交易所交易基金。
Kendrick isn't bearish on SOL under a potential Kamala Harris administration, though. He forecasts that should the vice president win in November, SOL will still double in value.
不过,在卡马拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 潜在政府领导下,肯德里克 (Kendrick) 并不看空 SOL。他预测,如果副总统在 11 月获胜,SOL 的价值仍将翻倍。
New Solana tech: Another variable is whether Solana can successfully ramp-up the number of transactions it can handle.
新 Solana 技术:另一个变量是 Solana 能否成功增加其可处理的交易数量。
Firedancer, a new validator client being developed by Jump Crypto, is key. It aims to increase Solana’s theoretical throughput from 50,000 transactions per second to over 600,000.
Firedancer 是 Jump Crypto 开发的新验证器客户端,它是关键。其目标是将 Solana 的理论吞吐量从每秒 50,000 笔交易增加到 600,000 笔以上。
“Current price metrics will only prove sustainable, in our view, if Solana can achieve a 100-400x increase in throughput,” Standard Chartered said. “This would require Firedancer to be active.”
渣打银行表示:“我们认为,只有 Solana 能够实现吞吐量 100-400 倍的增长,当前的价格指标才会被证明是可持续的。” “这需要 Firedancer 处于活跃状态。”
Solana handles around 3,200 transactions per second, according to data dashboard Solana Beach.
根据数据仪表板 Solana Beach 的数据,Solana 每秒处理约 3,200 笔交易。
There are, however, several risks. Building and launching Firedancer is a massive technical undertaking. A lot could go wrong.
然而,也存在一些风险。构建和启动 Firedancer 是一项艰巨的技术任务。很多事情都可能出错。
And other newer blockchains like Sui (CRYPTO: SUI) and Aptos (CRYPTO: APT) already claim to offer higher transaction throughput than Solana.
其他较新的区块链,如 Sui (CRYPTO: SUI) 和 Aptos (CRYPTO: APT) 已经声称提供比 Solana 更高的交易吞吐量。
More users: Building the infrastructure for higher throughput is only half the battle — Solana also needs to get more people using it.
更多用户:构建更高吞吐量的基础设施只是成功的一半 - Solana 还需要让更多人使用它。
Standard Chartered said Solana needs to establish dominance across finance, something it could do via its recent Visa (NYSE:V) partnership.
渣打银行表示,Solana 需要在金融领域建立主导地位,这可以通过最近与 Visa (NYSE:V) 的合作来实现。
It could also increase use through consumer apps like decentralized social media platforms and decentralized physical infrastructure networks, or DePINs.
它还可以通过去中心化社交媒体平台和去中心化物理基础设施网络(DePIN)等消费者应用程序来增加使用。
Solana's market value is 250 times the fees it generates. Ethereum, the biggest smart contract network, has a multiple of 121.
Solana 的市场价值是其产生的费用的 250 倍。最大的智能合约网络以太坊的倍数为 121。
This indicates that traders are betting on Solana's future use to justify its high valuation, according to Standard Chartered.
渣打银行表示,这表明交易员正在押注 Solana 的未来用途,以证明其高估值是合理的。
“Solana is richly valued versus ETH on our market value/fee multiple framework (Solana trades at 250x fees versus ETH at 121x),” the report said.
报告称:“在我们的市场价值/费用倍数框架上,与 ETH 相比,Solana 的估值很高(Solana 的交易费用为 250 倍,而 ETH 的交易费用为 121 倍)。”
“This either suggests that the market believes that Solana will achieve a much higher multiple on our measure or that Sol is overvalued on a relative basis.”
“这要么表明市场认为按照我们的衡量标准,Solana 将实现更高的倍数,要么表明 Solana 相对而言被高估了。”
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