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自 2022 年加密貨幣交易所 FTX 崩盤後暴跌以來,Solana 的 SOL 代幣已反彈 900%。
Solana's (CRYPTO: SOL) native token has rebounded an impressive 900% since plummeting in the aftermath of crypto exchange FTX’s 2022 collapse.
Solana(加密貨幣代碼:SOL)的原生代幣自 2022 年加密貨幣交易所 FTX 崩盤後暴跌以來,已經反彈了 900%,令人印象深刻。
Still, Standard Chartered Bank believes SOL could quadruple by the end of 2025.
儘管如此,渣打銀行認為 SOL 到 2025 年底可能會翻兩番。
At current prices, that would put SOL at $560, valuing the blockchain at $264 billion.
以目前的價格計算,SOL 的價格將為 560 美元,區塊鏈的估值為 2,640 億美元。
Here are three factors that could determine SOL’s price in the coming months.
以下三個因素可能決定 SOL 未來幾個月的價格。
The US election: Standard Chartered said its Solana price target is more justifiable if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House for a second term.
美國大選:渣打銀行表示,如果前總統川普重返白宮連任,其 Solana 目標價將更加合理。
A Trump administration “would be more supportive of the broader digital assets ecosystem than a Harris administration,” Standard Chartered global head of digital assets research Geoff Kendrick said in a recent report.
渣打銀行數位資產研究全球主管 Geoff Kendrick 在最近的一份報告中表示,川普政府「將比哈里斯政府更支持更廣泛的數位資產生態系統」。
“The introduction of a SOL ETF would also be more likely under a Trump presidency.”
“在川普擔任總統期間,推出 SOL ETF 的可能性也更大。”
Some investors speculate that a spot Solana exchange-traded fund could be next after the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Ethereum ETFs earlier this year.
一些投資者猜測,繼今年稍早美國證券交易委員會批准現貨以太坊 ETF 後,下一個可能是現貨 Solana 交易所交易基金。
Kendrick isn't bearish on SOL under a potential Kamala Harris administration, though. He forecasts that should the vice president win in November, SOL will still double in value.
不過,在卡馬拉哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 潛在政府領導下,肯德里克 (Kendrick) 並不看空 SOL。他預測,如果副總統在 11 月獲勝,SOL 的價值仍將翻倍。
New Solana tech: Another variable is whether Solana can successfully ramp-up the number of transactions it can handle.
新 Solana 技術:另一個變數是 Solana 能否成功增加其可處理的交易數量。
Firedancer, a new validator client being developed by Jump Crypto, is key. It aims to increase Solana’s theoretical throughput from 50,000 transactions per second to over 600,000.
Firedancer 是 Jump Crypto 開發的新驗證器用戶端,它是關鍵。其目標是將 Solana 的理論吞吐量從每秒 50,000 筆交易增加到 600,000 筆以上。
“Current price metrics will only prove sustainable, in our view, if Solana can achieve a 100-400x increase in throughput,” Standard Chartered said. “This would require Firedancer to be active.”
渣打銀行表示:“我們認為,只有 Solana 能夠實現吞吐量 100-400 倍的增長,當前的價格指標才會被證明是可持續的。” “這需要 Firedancer 處於活躍狀態。”
Solana handles around 3,200 transactions per second, according to data dashboard Solana Beach.
根據數據儀表板 Solana Beach 的數據,Solana 每秒處理約 3,200 筆交易。
There are, however, several risks. Building and launching Firedancer is a massive technical undertaking. A lot could go wrong.
然而,也存在一些風險。建置和啟動 Firedancer 是一項艱鉅的技術任務。很多事情都可能出錯。
And other newer blockchains like Sui (CRYPTO: SUI) and Aptos (CRYPTO: APT) already claim to offer higher transaction throughput than Solana.
其他較新的區塊鏈,如 Sui (CRYPTO: SUI) 和 Aptos (CRYPTO: APT) 已經聲稱提供比 Solana 更高的交易吞吐量。
More users: Building the infrastructure for higher throughput is only half the battle — Solana also needs to get more people using it.
更多用戶:建立更高吞吐量的基礎設施只是成功的一半 - Solana 還需要讓更多人使用它。
Standard Chartered said Solana needs to establish dominance across finance, something it could do via its recent Visa (NYSE:V) partnership.
渣打銀行表示,Solana 需要在金融領域建立主導地位,這可以透過最近與 Visa (NYSE:V) 的合作來實現。
It could also increase use through consumer apps like decentralized social media platforms and decentralized physical infrastructure networks, or DePINs.
它還可以透過去中心化社交媒體平台和去中心化實體基礎設施網路(DePIN)等消費者應用程式來增加使用。
Solana's market value is 250 times the fees it generates. Ethereum, the biggest smart contract network, has a multiple of 121.
Solana 的市場價值是其產生的費用的 250 倍。最大的智慧合約網路以太坊的倍數為 121。
This indicates that traders are betting on Solana's future use to justify its high valuation, according to Standard Chartered.
渣打銀行表示,這表明交易員正在押注 Solana 的未來用途,以證明其高估值是合理的。
“Solana is richly valued versus ETH on our market value/fee multiple framework (Solana trades at 250x fees versus ETH at 121x),” the report said.
報告指出:“在我們的市場價值/費用倍數框架上,與 ETH 相比,Solana 的估值很高(Solana 的交易費用為 250 倍,而 ETH 的交易費用為 121 倍)。”
“This either suggests that the market believes that Solana will achieve a much higher multiple on our measure or that Sol is overvalued on a relative basis.”
“這要么表明市場認為按照我們的衡量標準,Solana 將實現更高的倍數,要么表明 Solana 相對而言被高估了。”
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