Solana（Sol）价格预测：什么是在倾斜，接下来是在哪里？

加密货币市场对波动并不陌生，索拉纳（Sol）（Sol）最近感觉到了一个显着的价格下跌。当投资者和发烧友争先恐后地理解最新的低迷时期，问题比比皆是：是什么驱动了这种倾向，索拉纳下一步在哪里？

Solana (SOL) has been making waves in the cryptocurrency world with its recent price dip. As investors try to understand what's causing this downturn and where Solana might be headed next, here's a closer look at the factors influencing its recent price movements and what might be in store for this high-speed blockchain contender.

Solana（Sol）最近以其最近的价格下跌在加密货币世界中浪潮。当投资者试图了解导致这种衰退的原因以及接下来的索拉纳可能会前进的地方，这仔细研究了影响其最近价格变动的因素以及这个高速区块链竞争者可能正在存储的因素。

Solana is a Layer 1 blockchain platform known for its speed and scalability, capable of handling thousands of transactions per second with low fees. It uses a unique architecture designed to process up to 65,000 TPS at peak capacity. Unlike older blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum (pre-merge), Solana employs a Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism combined with Proof of History (PoH). PoH timestamps transactions to create a verifiable order of events, helping the network maintain speed and efficiency without compromising security.

Solana是一个以其速度和可扩展性而闻名的1层区块链平台，能够以低费用处理数千笔交易。它使用独特的体系结构，旨在以峰值容量处理多达65,000 TP。与比特币或以太坊（预合并）等较旧的区块链不同，Solana采用了股份证明（POS）共识机制，结合了历史证明（POH）。 POH时间戳交易以创建可验证的事件顺序，从而帮助网络保持速度和效率而不会损害安全性。

Solana is also known for its memecoin ecosystem, which serves as a benchmark for its impact compared to other blockchains, along with significant development in areas like DePIN, AI, and Gaming.

Solana还以其MEMECOIN生态系统而闻名，该系统与其他区块链相比是其影响的基准，以及诸如Depin，AI和游戏等领域的重大发展。

The largest Memecoin Launchpad in the crypto market on the Solana system, Pump.fun, is starting to build their own AMM Liquidity Pools. This might be the reason why this Launchpad wants to collect fees from LPs independently, rather than using other DeFi protocols like Raydium, which is causing the value of the $RAY token to drop significantly today, reaching 30.5%.

Pump.Fun的Crypto市场上最大的Memecoin Launchpad开始建立自己的AMM流动性池。这可能就是为什么该发射台希望独立从LPS收取费用，而不是使用其他Defi协议（例如Raydium）的原因，Raydium（导致$ ray令牌的价值今天都大幅下降，达到30.5％。

According to on-chain data from Arkham, pump.fun tends to quickly liquidate SOL acquired from memecoin transaction fees on centralized exchanges (CEXs). The move towards self-managed AMM liquidity pools could increase the fee revenue generated from memecoin creation, enabling the project to sell even more SOL.

根据来自Arkham的链链数据，Pump.Fun倾向于快速清算从集中式交易所（CEXS）上的Memecoin交易费用获得的SOL。向自我管理的AMM流动性池迈进的转变可能会增加Memecoin创建产生的费用收入，从而使该项目能够出售更多的SOL。

This led to a negative reaction in the $SOL price (a 6.2% decrease), and data from DeFiLlama also shows a significant decline in capital inflow recently. Leading platforms, including Jupiter, Meteora, Kamino, and Marinade, experienced substantial decreases in Total Value Locked (TVL) over the past month.

这导致$ SOL价格的负面反应（下降6.2％），而Defillama的数据最近也显示出资本流入的大幅下降。在过去的一个月中，包括木星，Meteora，Kamino和Marinade在内的领先平台的总价值锁定（TVL）的大幅下降。

The depreciation of SOL and its ecosystem also comes amid indications that investment fund and market maker Wintermute sold $SOL, with the token value exceeding $17 million.

SOL及其生态系统的贬值也出现在迹象表明投资基金和市政机构Wintermute出售$ SOL，代币价值超过1700万美元。

Despite these predominantly negative factors, it's important to note that Solana remains a significant source of liquidity within the broader market. The $TRUMP token, a PolitiFi asset pegged to the U.S. presidential figure, reached an all-time high on January 9th. This token, operating within the Solana ecosystem, catalyzed an upward trend across the entire blockchain's ecosystem. According to a survey by NFTevening, 14% of Americans acquired $TRUMP. This highlights the potential for cryptocurrency to appeal to a broad audience and, given a powerful enough catalyst, for the extensive Solana ecosystem, including SOL, to still show strong growth.

尽管这些主要是负面因素，但重要的是要注意，索拉纳仍然是更广泛的市场中的重要流动性来源。 $ trump token是一项与美国总统数字挂钩的政治资产，在1月9日达到了历史最高水平。在Solana生态系统中运行的这个令牌，在整个区块链的生态系统中催化了向上的趋势。根据Nfteinging的一项调查，有14％的美国人收购了特朗普$。这凸显了加密货币吸引广泛受众的潜力，并鉴于有足够强大的催化剂，包括SOL在内的广泛的Solana生态系统仍然表现出强劲的增长。

11.2 million $SOL, from the FTX bankruptcy auction, are set to unlock on January 3rd, which is about $2.06 billion. This event is expected to bring significant volatility to the $SOL market leading up to the unlock date. In the past, during similar token unlocks from the FTX bankruptcy proceedings, investment funds engaged in dip-buying strategies, which led to a consistent accumulation of the token.

来自FTX破产拍卖的1120万美元的SOL定于1月3日解锁，约为20.6亿美元。预计该活动将为$ SOL市场带来重大波动，直到解锁日期。过去，在从FTX破产程序中释放类似的代币时，投资基金从事销售策略，从而导致了代币的一致积累。

Regarding the short-term outlook, $SOL is likely to establish a support floor within the $128-$134 range. However, as mentioned earlier, a powerful catalyst, like the $TRUMP case, could lead to a remarkably robust recovery. According to Bitwise Europe, the valuation of $SOL has the potential to reach above $2,000. The $SOL price prediction for the first half of 2025 suggests a possible return to the $250 mark.

关于短期前景，$ SOL可能会在$ 128- $ 134范围内建立一个支撑楼。但是，如前所述，像$ trump案一样，强大的催化剂可能会导致强劲的恢复。根据Bitwise Europe的数据，$ SOL的估值有可能达到2,000美元以上。 2025年上半年的$ SOL价格预测表明，可能会返回250美元。