Solana（Sol）價格預測：什麼是在傾斜，接下來是在哪裡？

加密貨幣市場對波動並不陌生，索拉納（Sol）（Sol）最近感覺到了一個顯著的價格下跌。當投資者和發燒友爭先恐後地理解最新的低迷時期，問題比比皆是：是什麼驅動了這種傾向，索拉納下一步在哪裡？

Solana (SOL) has been making waves in the cryptocurrency world with its recent price dip. As investors try to understand what's causing this downturn and where Solana might be headed next, here's a closer look at the factors influencing its recent price movements and what might be in store for this high-speed blockchain contender.

Solana（Sol）最近以其最近的價格下跌在加密貨幣世界中浪潮。當投資者試圖了解導致這種衰退的原因以及接下來的索拉納可能會前進的地方，這仔細研究了影響其最近價格變動的因素以及這個高速區塊鏈競爭者可能正在存儲的因素。

Solana is a Layer 1 blockchain platform known for its speed and scalability, capable of handling thousands of transactions per second with low fees. It uses a unique architecture designed to process up to 65,000 TPS at peak capacity. Unlike older blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum (pre-merge), Solana employs a Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism combined with Proof of History (PoH). PoH timestamps transactions to create a verifiable order of events, helping the network maintain speed and efficiency without compromising security.

Solana是一個以其速度和可擴展性而聞名的1層區塊鏈平台，能夠以低費用處理數千筆交易。它使用獨特的體系結構，旨在以峰值容量處理多達65,000 TP。與比特幣或以太坊（預合併）等較舊的區塊鏈不同，Solana採用了股份證明（POS）共識機制，結合了歷史證明（POH）。 POH時間戳交易以創建可驗證的事件順序，從而幫助網絡保持速度和效率而不會損害安全性。

Solana is also known for its memecoin ecosystem, which serves as a benchmark for its impact compared to other blockchains, along with significant development in areas like DePIN, AI, and Gaming.

Solana還以其MEMECOIN生態系統而聞名，該系統與其他區塊鏈相比是其影響的基準，以及諸如Depin，AI和遊戲等領域的重大發展。

The largest Memecoin Launchpad in the crypto market on the Solana system, Pump.fun, is starting to build their own AMM Liquidity Pools. This might be the reason why this Launchpad wants to collect fees from LPs independently, rather than using other DeFi protocols like Raydium, which is causing the value of the $RAY token to drop significantly today, reaching 30.5%.

Pump.Fun的Crypto市場上最大的Memecoin Launchpad開始建立自己的AMM流動性池。這可能就是為什麼該發射台希望獨立從LPS收取費用，而不是使用其他Defi協議（例如Raydium）的原因，Raydium（導致$ ray令牌的價值今天都大幅下降，達到30.5％。

According to on-chain data from Arkham, pump.fun tends to quickly liquidate SOL acquired from memecoin transaction fees on centralized exchanges (CEXs). The move towards self-managed AMM liquidity pools could increase the fee revenue generated from memecoin creation, enabling the project to sell even more SOL.

根據來自Arkham的鍊鍊數據，Pump.Fun傾向於快速清算從集中式交易所（CEXS）上的Memecoin交易費用獲得的SOL。向自我管理的AMM流動性池邁進的轉變可能會增加Memecoin創建產生的費用收入，從而使該項目能夠出售更多的SOL。

This led to a negative reaction in the $SOL price (a 6.2% decrease), and data from DeFiLlama also shows a significant decline in capital inflow recently. Leading platforms, including Jupiter, Meteora, Kamino, and Marinade, experienced substantial decreases in Total Value Locked (TVL) over the past month.

這導致$ SOL價格的負面反應（下降6.2％），而Defillama的數據最近也顯示出資本流入的大幅下降。在過去的一個月中，包括木星，Meteora，Kamino和Marinade在內的領先平台的總價值鎖定（TVL）的大幅下降。

The depreciation of SOL and its ecosystem also comes amid indications that investment fund and market maker Wintermute sold $SOL, with the token value exceeding $17 million.

SOL及其生態系統的貶值也出現在跡象表明投資基金和市政機構Wintermute出售$ SOL，代幣價值超過1700萬美元。

Despite these predominantly negative factors, it's important to note that Solana remains a significant source of liquidity within the broader market. The $TRUMP token, a PolitiFi asset pegged to the U.S. presidential figure, reached an all-time high on January 9th. This token, operating within the Solana ecosystem, catalyzed an upward trend across the entire blockchain's ecosystem. According to a survey by NFTevening, 14% of Americans acquired $TRUMP. This highlights the potential for cryptocurrency to appeal to a broad audience and, given a powerful enough catalyst, for the extensive Solana ecosystem, including SOL, to still show strong growth.

儘管這些主要是負面因素，但重要的是要注意，索拉納仍然是更廣泛的市場中的重要流動性來源。 $ trump token是一項與美國總統數字掛鉤的政治資產，在1月9日達到了歷史最高水平。在Solana生態系統中運行的這個令牌，在整個區塊鏈的生態系統中催化了向上的趨勢。根據Nfteinging的一項調查，有14％的美國人收購了特朗普$。這凸顯了加密貨幣吸引廣泛受眾的潛力，並鑑於有足夠強大的催化劑，包括SOL在內的廣泛的Solana生態系統仍然表現出強勁的增長。

11.2 million $SOL, from the FTX bankruptcy auction, are set to unlock on January 3rd, which is about $2.06 billion. This event is expected to bring significant volatility to the $SOL market leading up to the unlock date. In the past, during similar token unlocks from the FTX bankruptcy proceedings, investment funds engaged in dip-buying strategies, which led to a consistent accumulation of the token.

來自FTX破產拍賣的1120萬美元的SOL定於1月3日解鎖，約為20.6億美元。預計該活動將為$ SOL市場帶來重大波動，直到解鎖日期。過去，在從FTX破產程序中釋放類似的代幣時，投資基金從事銷售策略，從而導致了代幣的一致積累。

Regarding the short-term outlook, $SOL is likely to establish a support floor within the $128-$134 range. However, as mentioned earlier, a powerful catalyst, like the $TRUMP case, could lead to a remarkably robust recovery. According to Bitwise Europe, the valuation of $SOL has the potential to reach above $2,000. The $SOL price prediction for the first half of 2025 suggests a possible return to the $250 mark.

關於短期前景，$ SOL可能會在$ 128- $ 134範圍內建立一個支撐樓。但是，如前所述，像$ trump案一樣，強大的催化劑可能會導致強勁的恢復。根據Bitwise Europe的數據，$ SOL的估值有可能達到2,000美元以上。 2025年上半年的$ SOL價格預測表明，可能會返回250美元。