迹象表明比特币（BTC）可能已经达到其周期低

在残酷的2月消除了比特币市值的25％以上，迹象表明，BTC可能已经达到了其周期。

After a brutal February that wiped out over 25% of Bitcoin’s market cap, signs are emerging that BTC may have hit its cycle low.

在残酷的2月消除了比特币市值的25％以上，迹象表明，BTC可能已经达到了其周期。

Arthur Hayes, the influential market analyst who correctly predicted a drop below $80,000, now believes Bitcoin’s bottom is in—at $77,000.

有影响力的市场分析师亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）正确预测低于80,000美元的跌幅，现在认为比特币的底部为77,000美元。

According to Hayes, the next move is upward. But not everyone agrees.

根据海耶斯的说法，下一步是向上的。但是并不是每个人都同意。

Bitcoin to Rally, but Stocks May Bleed First

比特币进行集会，但股票可能会首先流血

In a recent post on X, Hayes argued that Bitcoin has already touched its price floor and is poised to rally again. Meanwhile, he warned that Wall Street’s troubles were far from over.

在最近关于X的文章中，海斯认为比特币已经触及了其价格底，并准备再次集会。同时，他警告说，华尔街的麻烦还没有结束。

The ongoing selloff in traditional markets, he suggested, could push Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to align with Donald Trump’s repeated calls for interest rate cuts.

他认为，传统市场中持续的抛售可能会推动美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）与唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）一再降低利率降低的呼吁。

Such a shift in monetary policy could inject new liquidity into the economy, reigniting capital flows into crypto and driving Bitcoin higher.

货币政策的这种转变可以将新的流动性注入经济，将资本流入加密货币并使比特币更高。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading above $85,000 after briefly dipping to $76,678 earlier this month. February was one of its worst-performing months in recent history, and March has largely seen sideways movement.

在撰写本文时，比特币在本月早些时候短暂降至76,678美元之后的交易额超过85,000美元。二月是最近历史上最糟糕的几个月之一，而三月在很大程度上看到了侧向运动。

Analysts Split on Whether Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is Over

分析师分析了比特币的公牛跑步

While Hayes sees a second leg of Bitcoin’s bull run ahead, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju isn’t convinced.

尽管海斯看到比特币的公牛奔跑的第二回合，但CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju并不相信。

On March 18, Young posted on X that his outlook had flipped from bullish to cautious in a matter of days. He cited on-chain data suggesting that Bitcoin’s upward momentum is fading, warning that the market may have already topped out.

3月18日，Young在X上张贴了他的前景在几天之内从看涨到谨慎。他引用了链上的数据，表明比特币的向上势头正在逐渐消失，警告说市场可能已经超越了。

His outlook? Bitcoin could spend the next 6-12 months moving sideways or even trending downward.

他的观点？比特币可以在接下来的6-12个月的侧面移动，甚至向下趋势。

Institutional demand also appears to be cooling.

机构需求似乎也在冷却。

Bitcoin ETFs, which once sparked fears of a supply crunch, have seen billions in outflows over the past month.

比特币ETF曾经引起了人们对供应紧缩的恐惧，在过去的一个月中，有数十亿美元的流出。

The market sentiment is in stark contrast to six months ago when traders worried there wouldn’t be enough BTC available on OTC desks.

与六个月前的交易者担心OTC办公桌上没有足够的BTC相比，市场情绪形成鲜明对比。

The Halving Factor: One More Bullish Wave?

减半因素：另外一波？

Despite the current uncertainty, historical patterns suggest Bitcoin’s bull cycle isn’t over just yet.

尽管目前存在不确定性，但历史模式表明，比特币的牛周尚未结束。

Previous market cycles show that Bitcoin tends to rally for about 18 months following a halving event. If that trend holds, the bull market could extend into the third quarter of 2025.

以前的市场周期表明，在减半事件后，比特币倾向于在大约18个月内集会。如果这种趋势成立，牛市可能会延伸到2025年的第三季度。

For now, Bitcoin remains just one breakout away from reclaiming its highs—whether that happens soon or much later is a battle still playing out.

就目前而言，比特币距离收回高点仅仅是一个突破 - 不久之后发生的是一场仍在进行的战斗。