Signs Emerge That Bitcoin (BTC) May Have Hit Its Cycle Low

After a brutal February that wiped out over 25% of Bitcoin's market cap, signs are emerging that BTC may have hit its cycle low.

After a brutal February that wiped out over 25% of Bitcoin’s market cap, signs are emerging that BTC may have hit its cycle low.

Arthur Hayes, the influential market analyst who correctly predicted a drop below $80,000, now believes Bitcoin’s bottom is in—at $77,000.

According to Hayes, the next move is upward. But not everyone agrees.

Bitcoin to Rally, but Stocks May Bleed First

In a recent post on X, Hayes argued that Bitcoin has already touched its price floor and is poised to rally again. Meanwhile, he warned that Wall Street’s troubles were far from over.

The ongoing selloff in traditional markets, he suggested, could push Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to align with Donald Trump’s repeated calls for interest rate cuts.

The ongoing selloff in traditional markets, he suggested, could push Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to align with Donald Trump’s repeated calls for interest rate cuts.

Such a shift in monetary policy could inject new liquidity into the economy, reigniting capital flows into crypto and driving Bitcoin higher.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading above $85,000 after briefly dipping to $76,678 earlier this month. February was one of its worst-performing months in recent history, and March has largely seen sideways movement.

Analysts Split on Whether Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is Over

While Hayes sees a second leg of Bitcoin’s bull run ahead, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju isn’t convinced.

On March 18, Young posted on X that his outlook had flipped from bullish to cautious in a matter of days. He cited on-chain data suggesting that Bitcoin’s upward momentum is fading, warning that the market may have already topped out.

His outlook? Bitcoin could spend the next 6-12 months moving sideways or even trending downward.

Institutional demand also appears to be cooling.

Bitcoin ETFs, which once sparked fears of a supply crunch, have seen billions in outflows over the past month.

Bitcoin ETFs, which once sparked fears of a supply crunch, have seen billions in outflows over the past month.

The market sentiment is in stark contrast to six months ago when traders worried there wouldn’t be enough BTC available on OTC desks.

The Halving Factor: One More Bullish Wave?

Despite the current uncertainty, historical patterns suggest Bitcoin’s bull cycle isn’t over just yet.

Previous market cycles show that Bitcoin tends to rally for about 18 months following a halving event. If that trend holds, the bull market could extend into the third quarter of 2025.

For now, Bitcoin remains just one breakout away from reclaiming its highs—whether that happens soon or much later is a battle still playing out.