跡象表明比特幣（BTC）可能已經達到其周期低

在殘酷的2月消除了比特幣市值的25％以上，跡象表明，BTC可能已經達到了其周期。

After a brutal February that wiped out over 25% of Bitcoin’s market cap, signs are emerging that BTC may have hit its cycle low.

在殘酷的2月消除了比特幣市值的25％以上，跡象表明，BTC可能已經達到了其周期。

Arthur Hayes, the influential market analyst who correctly predicted a drop below $80,000, now believes Bitcoin’s bottom is in—at $77,000.

有影響力的市場分析師亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）正確預測低於80,000美元的跌幅，現在認為比特幣的底部為77,000美元。

According to Hayes, the next move is upward. But not everyone agrees.

根據海耶斯的說法，下一步是向上的。但是並不是每個人都同意。

Bitcoin to Rally, but Stocks May Bleed First

比特幣進行集會，但股票可能會首先流血

In a recent post on X, Hayes argued that Bitcoin has already touched its price floor and is poised to rally again. Meanwhile, he warned that Wall Street’s troubles were far from over.

在最近關於X的文章中，海斯認為比特幣已經觸及了其價格底，並準備再次集會。同時，他警告說，華爾街的麻煩還沒有結束。

The ongoing selloff in traditional markets, he suggested, could push Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to align with Donald Trump’s repeated calls for interest rate cuts.

他認為，傳統市場中持續的拋售可能會推動美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）與唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）一再降低利率降低的呼籲。

Such a shift in monetary policy could inject new liquidity into the economy, reigniting capital flows into crypto and driving Bitcoin higher.

貨幣政策的這種轉變可以將新的流動性注入經濟，將資本流入加密貨幣並使比特幣更高。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading above $85,000 after briefly dipping to $76,678 earlier this month. February was one of its worst-performing months in recent history, and March has largely seen sideways movement.

在撰寫本文時，比特幣在本月早些時候短暫降至76,678美元之後的交易額超過85,000美元。二月是最近歷史上最糟糕的幾個月之一，而三月在很大程度上看到了側向運動。

Analysts Split on Whether Bitcoin’s Bull Run Is Over

分析師分析了比特幣的公牛跑步

While Hayes sees a second leg of Bitcoin’s bull run ahead, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju isn’t convinced.

儘管海斯看到比特幣的公牛奔跑的第二回合，但CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju並不相信。

On March 18, Young posted on X that his outlook had flipped from bullish to cautious in a matter of days. He cited on-chain data suggesting that Bitcoin’s upward momentum is fading, warning that the market may have already topped out.

3月18日，Young在X上張貼了他的前景在幾天之內從看漲到謹慎。他引用了鏈上的數據，表明比特幣的向上勢頭正在逐漸消失，警告說市場可能已經超越了。

His outlook? Bitcoin could spend the next 6-12 months moving sideways or even trending downward.

他的觀點？比特幣可以在接下來的6-12個月的側面移動，甚至向下趨勢。

Institutional demand also appears to be cooling.

機構需求似乎也在冷卻。

Bitcoin ETFs, which once sparked fears of a supply crunch, have seen billions in outflows over the past month.

比特幣ETF曾經引起了人們對供應緊縮的恐懼，在過去的一個月中，有數十億美元的流出。

The market sentiment is in stark contrast to six months ago when traders worried there wouldn’t be enough BTC available on OTC desks.

與六個月前的交易者擔心OTC辦公桌上沒有足夠的BTC相比，市場情緒形成鮮明對比。

The Halving Factor: One More Bullish Wave?

減半因素：另外一波？

Despite the current uncertainty, historical patterns suggest Bitcoin’s bull cycle isn’t over just yet.

儘管目前存在不確定性，但歷史模式表明，比特幣的牛週尚未結束。

Previous market cycles show that Bitcoin tends to rally for about 18 months following a halving event. If that trend holds, the bull market could extend into the third quarter of 2025.

以前的市場週期表明，在減半事件後，比特幣傾向於在大約18個月內集會。如果這種趨勢成立，牛市可能會延伸到2025年的第三季度。

For now, Bitcoin remains just one breakout away from reclaiming its highs—whether that happens soon or much later is a battle still playing out.

就目前而言，比特幣距離收回高點僅僅是一個突破 - 不久之後發生的是一場仍在進行的戰鬥。