短期比特币[BTC]持有人随着未实现的损失安装而感到热

短期比特币[BTC]持有人在未实现的损失上感觉到热量，这标志着该市场周期中的关键拐点。

Short-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders are feeling the heat as unrealized losses mount, marking a critical inflection point in this market cycle. However, despite all the pressure building up, history suggests that this may be a natural cooling phase within a broader bull trend.

短期比特币（BTC）持有人会感到热量作为未实现的损失架，这标志着该市场周期中的关键拐点。但是，尽管有所有压力，历史表明这可能是更广泛的牛趋势中的自然冷却阶段。

Bitcoin losses climb, but stay within historical range

比特币损失爬升，但保持在历史范围内

In fact, data from Glassnode revealed that the relative unrealized losses for short-term holders (STHs) may be nearing the +2 standard deviation level – A threshold historically associated with peak distress.

实际上，GlassNode的数据表明，短期持有人（STH）的相对未实现的损失可能接近+2标准偏差水平，这是与峰值遇险有关的阈值。

And yet, they remain within the upper bounds typically seen during bull markets, not yet breaching capitulation territory.

然而，它们仍然保持在牛市中通常看到的上限范围内，尚未违反投降领域。

Image: Glassnode

图像：玻璃节

The press time level of STH pain seemed to be notable too, with over $7 billion in realized losses recorded over the last 30 days.

STH痛苦的新闻时间水平似乎也是值得注意的，在过去的30天中，已实现的损失超过70亿美元。

While this figure is the highest realized loss event of the current cycle, it is significantly below the staggering $19.8 billion and $20.7 billion levels seen during the major drawdowns of May 2021 and June 2022.

尽管这一数字是当前周期中最高的损失事件，但在2021年5月和2022年6月的重大逐渐减值期间，它显着低于惊人的198亿美元和207亿美元的损失。

This means that while losses have been increasing, many investors are still exiting before extreme capitulation kicks in. In other words, short-term holders may be locking in modest losses, rather than enduring deeper drawdowns – A possible sign of broader market strength.

这意味着，尽管损失一直在增加，但许多投资者仍在极端投降之前退出。换句话说，短期持有人可能会陷入适度的损失，而不是忍受更深层的缩减，这可能是更广泛的市场实力的可能迹象。

Bitcoin’s price structure and risk zones

比特币的价格结构和风险区域

Bitcoin was trading at $84,322 at press time, with the crypto hovering just below its 50-day moving average of $85,141 and well beneath the 200-day moving average at $95,174.

发稿时，比特币的交易价格为84,322美元，加密货币徘徊在其50天的搬家平均水平低于85,141美元以下，远低于200天移动平均线，为95,174美元。

These levels form key resistance zones and may continue suppressing upward momentum. Especially if short-term holder sentiment remains weak.

这些水平形成关键阻力区，并可能继续抑制向上的动量。尤其是如果短期持有人的情绪仍然弱。

Image: TradingView

图像：TradingView

The Bollinger Bands also highlighted a tightening range, hinting at a likely breakout ahead.

布林乐队还强调了一个紧缩范围，暗示可能突破了。

However, with short-term holders under pressure, the bias could tilt bearish unless new demand enters the market.

但是，由于短期持有人在压力下，除非新需求进入市场，否则偏见可能会倾斜看跌。

What this means for Bitcoin’s trend

这对比特币的趋势意味着什么

The combination of rising unrealized and growing realized losses suggested elevated risk, particularly for those holding Bitcoin acquired at recent highs. However, the fact that these losses remain within historical bull market patterns is a sign that a macro reversal is not yet confirmed.

未实现的损失和越来越多的损失的结合表明风险升高，特别是对于那些在最近高点获得的比特币的人来说。但是，这些损失仍然存在于历史牛市模式之内，这表明尚未确认宏逆转。

If BTC can reclaim the $85,000-level and flip it into support, it could renew confidence among STHs. Conversely, failure to hold $83,000 could lead to more selling while testing lower supports near $80,000.

如果BTC可以收回85,000美元的级别并将其倒入支持，则可以在STH中更新信心。相反，如果不持有83,000美元，可能会导致更多销售，同时测试较低的支撑量接近80,000美元。

Overall, short-term pain is evident, but not yet extreme. As long as Bitcoin holds above key psychological levels and macro flows remain intact, this correction may serve more as a reset than a reversal.

总体而言，短期疼痛是显而易见的，但尚不极端。只要比特币的心理水平高于关键的心理水平和宏流程保持完整，这种校正就可以作为重置而不是逆转。