短期比特幣[BTC]持有人隨著未實現的損失安裝而感到熱

短期比特幣[BTC]持有人在未實現的損失上感覺到熱量，這標誌著該市場週期中的關鍵拐點。

Short-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders are feeling the heat as unrealized losses mount, marking a critical inflection point in this market cycle. However, despite all the pressure building up, history suggests that this may be a natural cooling phase within a broader bull trend.

短期比特幣（BTC）持有人會感到熱量作為未實現的損失架，這標誌著該市場週期中的關鍵拐點。但是，儘管有所有壓力，歷史表明這可能是更廣泛的牛趨勢中的自然冷卻階段。

Bitcoin losses climb, but stay within historical range

比特幣損失爬升，但保持在歷史範圍內

In fact, data from Glassnode revealed that the relative unrealized losses for short-term holders (STHs) may be nearing the +2 standard deviation level – A threshold historically associated with peak distress.

實際上，GlassNode的數據表明，短期持有人（STH）的相對未實現的損失可能接近+2標準偏差水平，這是與峰值遇險有關的閾值。

And yet, they remain within the upper bounds typically seen during bull markets, not yet breaching capitulation territory.

然而，它們仍然保持在牛市中通常看到的上限範圍內，尚未違反投降領域。

Image: Glassnode

圖像：玻璃節

The press time level of STH pain seemed to be notable too, with over $7 billion in realized losses recorded over the last 30 days.

STH痛苦的新聞時間水平似乎也是值得注意的，在過去的30天中，已實現的損失超過70億美元。

While this figure is the highest realized loss event of the current cycle, it is significantly below the staggering $19.8 billion and $20.7 billion levels seen during the major drawdowns of May 2021 and June 2022.

儘管這一數字是當前週期中最高的損失事件，但在2021年5月和2022年6月的重大逐漸減值期間，它顯著低於驚人的198億美元和207億美元的損失。

This means that while losses have been increasing, many investors are still exiting before extreme capitulation kicks in. In other words, short-term holders may be locking in modest losses, rather than enduring deeper drawdowns – A possible sign of broader market strength.

這意味著，儘管損失一直在增加，但許多投資者仍在極端投降之前退出。換句話說，短期持有人可能會陷入適度的損失，而不是忍受更深層的縮減，這可能是更廣泛的市場實力的可能跡象。

Bitcoin’s price structure and risk zones

比特幣的價格結構和風險區域

Bitcoin was trading at $84,322 at press time, with the crypto hovering just below its 50-day moving average of $85,141 and well beneath the 200-day moving average at $95,174.

發稿時，比特幣的交易價格為84,322美元，加密貨幣徘徊在其50天的搬家平均水平低於85,141美元以下，遠低於200天移動平均線，為95,174美元。

These levels form key resistance zones and may continue suppressing upward momentum. Especially if short-term holder sentiment remains weak.

這些水平形成關鍵阻力區，並可能繼續抑制向上的動量。尤其是如果短期持有人的情緒仍然弱。

Image: TradingView

圖像：TradingView

The Bollinger Bands also highlighted a tightening range, hinting at a likely breakout ahead.

布林樂隊還強調了一個緊縮範圍，暗示可能突破了。

However, with short-term holders under pressure, the bias could tilt bearish unless new demand enters the market.

但是，由於短期持有人在壓力下，除非新需求進入市場，否則偏見可能會傾斜看跌。

What this means for Bitcoin’s trend

這對比特幣的趨勢意味著什麼

The combination of rising unrealized and growing realized losses suggested elevated risk, particularly for those holding Bitcoin acquired at recent highs. However, the fact that these losses remain within historical bull market patterns is a sign that a macro reversal is not yet confirmed.

未實現的損失和越來越多的損失的結合表明風險升高，特別是對於那些在最近高點獲得的比特幣的人來說。但是，這些損失仍然存在於歷史牛市模式之內，這表明尚未確認宏逆轉。

If BTC can reclaim the $85,000-level and flip it into support, it could renew confidence among STHs. Conversely, failure to hold $83,000 could lead to more selling while testing lower supports near $80,000.

如果BTC可以收回85,000美元的級別並將其倒入支持，則可以在STH中更新信心。相反，如果不持有83,000美元，可能會導致更多銷售，同時測試較低的支撐量接近80,000美元。

Overall, short-term pain is evident, but not yet extreme. As long as Bitcoin holds above key psychological levels and macro flows remain intact, this correction may serve more as a reset than a reversal.

總體而言，短期疼痛是顯而易見的，但尚不極端。只要比特幣的心理水平高於關鍵的心理水平和宏流程保持完整，這種校正就可以作為重置而不是逆轉。