短期预测：随着比特币冲向 10 万美元里程碑，特朗普承诺让加密货币摆脱监管束缚

虽然股市正在缓慢地走向适度的近期回报，但比特币却刚刚度过了今年最好的月份之一，11 月份飙升了近 40%。

Bitcoin enjoyed a stellar month of November, surging nearly 40 percent as Donald Trump's return to the US presidency bodes well for the crypto world.

唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 重返美国总统宝座，比特币在 11 月份表现出色，飙升近 40%，这对加密世界来说是个好兆头。

Here's the kicker: Trump has a plan to federalize the 208,109 Bitcoins currently in federal custody, turning them into a strategic national Bitcoin stockpile. That's over 1 percent of the world's Bitcoin supply, currently valued at a jaw-dropping $20 billion.

关键在于：特朗普计划将目前联邦监管的 208,109 枚比特币联邦化，将它们转变为国家战略比特币储备。这占全球比特币供应量的 1% 以上，目前比特币价值高达 200 亿美元，令人瞠目结舌。

On the campaign trail, he's been positioning himself as the crypto industry's saviour, promising to bring it out of the shadows of unclear regulations and the SEC's heavy-handed enforcement antics under Chair Gary Gensler.

在竞选过程中，他一直将自己定位为加密货币行业的救世主，承诺将其带出监管不明确和美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler)领导下的严厉执法行为的阴影。

Crypto pundits are popping champagne bottles, predicting Bitcoin will soon hit the $100,000 milestone. Riding these tailwinds, Jefferies' Christopher Wood's global portfolio is easing up with a 10 percent allocation to Bitcoin ETFs.

加密货币专家们纷纷开香槟，预测比特币将很快达到 10 万美元的里程碑。乘着这些顺风车，杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 的克里斯托弗·伍德 (Christopher Wood) 的全球投资组合正在放松，将 10% 的配置分配给比特币 ETF。

His advice? Not to try and trade these positions, most particularly in the pension fund portfolio. Still, for those with a more tactical focus, Wood suggests cashing in some Bitcoins around the $150,000 mark since his base case is that the crypto will rally three times in this post-halving cycle since the trend has been for the capital gains on holding it to more than halve following each halving cycle. A halving cycle is where prices for Bitcoin correct to around half of its recent highs over a period of time following which it sees a retracement towards higher levels.

他的建议？不要尝试交易这些头寸，尤其是养老基金投资组合中的头寸。尽管如此，对于那些更注重战术的人来说，伍德建议在 15 万美元左右兑现一些比特币，因为他的基本情况是，在减半后的周期中，加密货币将上涨三倍，因为趋势是持有它的资本收益每个减半周期后减半以上。减半周期是指比特币价格在一段时间内回调至近期高点的一半左右，随后回撤至更高水平。

Bitcoin's halvings have a history of fueling massive gains. After the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin skyrocketed 90x in 12 months. The second halving in July 2016 saw a 30x jump in 18 months.

比特币减半历史上曾带来巨大收益。 2012 年 11 月第一次减半后，比特币在 12 个月内飙升了 90 倍。 2016 年 7 月的第二次减半在 18 个月内飙升了 30 倍。

The third halving in May 2020 brought a 7.5x rise in 11 months, eventually hitting a record $68,992 in November 2021, marking an 8x gain in 18 months. Since the most recent halving in April 2023, Bitcoin has already climbed 54 percent to a high of $98,450.

2020 年 5 月的第三次减半带来了 11 个月内上涨 7.5 倍，最终在 2021 年 11 月达到创纪录的 68,992 美元，18 个月内上涨了 8 倍。自 2023 年 4 月最近一次减半以来，比特币已上涨 54% 至 98,450 美元的高位。

With bullish trends in Bitcoin are now making it hard for investors to ignore it, Trump’s mainstreaming push is giving the crypto an undeniable spotlight. But hold your golden horses—Wood warns against swapping gold for Bitcoin just yet. Instead, think of it as your digital alternative worth a shot. One that is worth giving a try.

随着比特币的看涨趋势现在让投资者很难忽视它，特朗普的主流化推动使加密货币成为不可否认的焦点。但请把握好你的金马——伍德警告不要用黄金换比特币。相反，请将其视为值得一试的数字替代方案。值得一试的一个。