RUNE 价格分析：市场波动中基础链整合到来

THORChain 的原生代币 RUNE 面临着巨大的阻力，在更广泛的市场波动中，过去一周下跌了 30%。该协议即将通过 THORNode v3.1.1 进行基础链集成，正值网络的关键时刻。

THORChain’s native token, RUNE, has experienced a significant decline of 30% over the past week, amidst broader market volatility. This price drop comes at a critical juncture as the protocol prepares for its upcoming Base Chain integration through THORNode v3.1.1

在更广泛的市场波动中，THORChain 的原生代币 RUNE 在过去一周大幅下跌 30%。此次价格下跌正值关键时刻，因为该协议正在为即将通过 THORNode v3.1.1 进行基础链集成做准备

As the protocol advances to its next technical milestone, investors and traders are keeping a close watch on key price levels and market indicators to assess potential trend reversals. Let’s delve into an analysis of the current market conditions and technical indicators to gain insights into RUNE’s price trajectory.

随着该协议迈向下一个技术里程碑，投资者和交易者正在密切关注关键价格水平和市场指标，以评估潜在的趋势逆转。让我们深入分析当前的市场状况和技术指标，以深入了解 RUNE 的价格轨迹。

Base Chain Integration: A New Chapter After Recent Struggles

基础链整合：近期奋斗后的新篇章

The recent THORChain v3.1.1 upgrade, while designed to enhance the protocol’s infrastructure, has coincided with a period of price decline. The token has struggled to maintain its previous trading range, dropping 29.5% over the past week. This downward pressure has persisted despite the upgrade’s technical improvements to the network.

最近的 THORChain v3.1.1 升级虽然旨在增强协议的基础设施，但恰逢价格下跌时期。该代币一直难以维持之前的交易区间，过去一周下跌了 29.5%。尽管升级对网络进行了技术改进，但这种下行压力仍然持续存在。

The protocol is now taking its next step forward with the Base Chain integration. THORNode v3.1.1 has successfully added Base to THORChain’s infrastructure, though swaps remain temporarily unavailable. The final piece of this integration puzzle is set for January 11th at 11:30 AM EST, when the router deployment will occur during the next network churn.

该协议现在正在通过基础链集成向前迈出下一步。 THORNode v3.1.1 已成功将 Base 添加到 THORChain 的基础设施中，但交换暂时不可用。此集成难题的最后一部分定于美国东部时间 1 月 11 日上午 11:30 进行，届时路由器部署将在下一次网络混乱期间进行。

Afterwards, this router activation will herald several new capabilities for THORChain users. The update will enable the creation of new ERC20 pools on Base and facilitate BASE.ETH swaps. Currently, the whitelist includes support for USDC and cbBTC tokens on the Base network. For new ERC20 pools to transition from staged to active status, a minimum of 10,000 RUNE is required.

此后，此路由器激活将为 THORChain 用户带来多项新功能。此次更新将支持在 Base 上创建新的 ERC20 池并促进 BASE.ETH 交换。目前，白名单包括对 Base 网络上 USDC 和 cbBTC 代币的支持。新的 ERC20 池要从暂存状态过渡到活跃状态，至少需要 10,000 个 RUNE。

The integration introduces a distinct churning mechanism, where pools and vaults operate on separate intervals. This design choice aims to enhance network stability and liquidity management. The Base Router has already been deployed and awaits registration during the next churn, after which it will begin processing deposits and outbound transactions. This expansion of THORChain’s cross-chain capabilities comes at a crucial time as the protocol seeks to rebuild momentum in the market.

该集成引入了一种独特的搅拌机制，其中池和金库按不同的时间间隔运行。这种设计选择旨在增强网络稳定性和流动性管理。基本路由器已经部署并等待下一次流失期间的注册，之后它将开始处理存款和出站交易。 THORChain 跨链功能的扩展正值该协议寻求重建市场动力的关键时刻。

Technical Analysis and Price Outlook

技术分析和价格展望

RUNE’s price action reveals a clear downtrend since late December 2024, with the token declining from around $5.80 to reach its current level of $3.51. This steady descent has formed a bearish channel, with each attempted recovery meeting resistance at lower levels.

RUNE 的价格走势显示出自 2024 年 12 月下旬以来明显的下降趋势，该代币从 5.80 美元左右下跌至目前的 3.51 美元水平。这种稳步下降形成了看跌通道，每次尝试复苏都会遇到较低水平的阻力。

The Bollinger Bands indicate increasing volatility, with the price consistently trading near the lower band. This positioning typically suggests oversold conditions, though in strong downtrends, prices can continue to follow the lower band for extended periods.

布林带表明波动性正在增加，价格一直在下轨附近交易。这种定位通常表明超卖状况，尽管在强劲的下跌趋势中，价格可能会在较长时间内继续跟随较低的区间。

The RSI currently reads 54.65, placing it within neutral territory and indicating balanced momentum despite the recent price decline. This neutral RSI reading suggests that while the price trend remains bearish, selling pressure may be easing. However, the persistent downward momentum in price action warrants caution.

RSI 目前为 54.65，处于中性区域，尽管最近价格下跌，但仍显示出平衡的势头。这一中性 RSI 读数表明，虽然价格趋势仍然看跌，但抛售压力可能正在缓解。然而，价格走势持续下行的势头值得谨慎对待。

Price support levels have formed around $3.28, coinciding with recent local lows. The token faces immediate resistance at $3.62, with stronger resistance zones established at $4.89 and $5.65. The 50-day moving average trending above current prices reinforces the bearish market structure.

价格支撑位形成于 3.28 美元左右，与近期局部低点一致。该代币面临 3.62 美元的直接阻力，更强的阻力区域为 4.89 美元和 5.65 美元。 50 日移动平均线趋势高于当前价格，强化了看跌的市场结构。

RUNE/USD Trading Chart. TradingView

卢恩/美元交易图表。交易视图

Trading volumes have remained consistent despite the price decline, indicating sustained market participation. However, the lack of significant buying pressure suggests traders are watching the Base Chain integration as a potential catalyst before making substantial moves.

尽管价格下跌，交易量仍保持稳定，表明市场参与持续。然而，缺乏重大的购买压力表明，交易者正在将基础链整合视为潜在的催化剂，然后再采取实质性行动。

For a sustained recovery, RUNE needs to first break above the immediate resistance at $3.62 and establish it as support. Until then, the technical structure remains bearish, with the upcoming Base Chain integration serving as a key fundamental event that could influence price direction.

为了持续复苏，RUNE 需要首先突破 3.62 美元的直接阻力位，并将其确立为支撑位。在此之前，技术结构仍然看跌，即将到来的 Base Chain 整合将成为可能影响价格走向的关键基本面事件。