随着通胀和情绪转变，风险资产接近修正边缘

10X Research 创始人马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 表示，由于意外且持续的通胀，风险资产正处于价格大幅调整的边缘。目前债券市场预计降息幅度将减少，10年期国债收益率已超过4.50%，这可能预示着风险资产将迎来关键转折点。

Risk Assets Teeter on Precipice of Correction Amidst Inflationary Pressures and Shifting Market Sentiment

在通胀压力和市场情绪转变的背景下，风险资产在调整的悬崖上摇摇欲坠

Investors and market analysts are expressing growing concern over the precarious position of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as they face the prospect of a significant price correction. The primary catalyst driving this concern is the unexpected and persistent inflation that has gripped the global economy.

投资者和市场分析师对包括加密货币在内的风险资产的不稳定状况表示越来越担忧，因为他们面临价格大幅调整的前景。引发这种担忧的主要催化剂是困扰全球经济的意外且持续的通货膨胀。

Markus Thielen, the founder of 10X Research, recently issued a note to clients warning of the impending tipping point for risk assets. He emphasized that the bond market's current projections of less than three interest rate cuts and the surge in 10-year Treasury Yields surpassing 4.50% have created a potentially perilous situation.

10X Research 创始人马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 最近向客户发布了一份报告，警告风险资产即将迎来临界点。他强调，债券市场目前预计降息次数将少于三次，而10年期国债收益率飙升至超过4.50%，造成了潜在的危险局面。

Thielen elaborated, "Most of this 2023/2024 bitcoin rally was fueled by market expectations of interest rate cuts. However, this narrative is facing serious scrutiny now, especially with the drying up of inflows into spot exchange-traded funds."

Thielen 阐述道，“2023/2024 年比特币上涨大部分是由市场降息预期推动的。然而，这种说法现在正面临严格审查，特别是在现货交易所交易基金资金流入枯竭的情况下。”

Data from CMEGroup corroborates this shift in market sentiment. Traders have recently scaled back their pricing for 25 basis point Fed rate cuts this year from six to less than three. This adjustment reflects a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance on monetary policy to combat inflation.

芝商所的数据证实了市场情绪的这种转变。交易商最近将美联储今年降息 25 个基点的定价从 6 个基点下调至不到 3 个基点。此次调整反映了人们越来越多的共识，即美联储将在货币政策上维持鹰派立场以应对通胀。

Historically, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have exhibited a high correlation to the broader risk asset market. When risk appetite is high, cryptocurrencies often surge in value. Conversely, when risk aversion sets in, cryptocurrencies tend to experience sharp declines.

从历史上看，比特币和其他加密货币与更广泛的风险资产市场表现出高度相关性。当风险偏好高时，加密货币的价值通常会飙升。相反，当风险厌恶情绪出现时，加密货币往往会急剧下跌。

The current inflationary environment has prompted a reassessment of risk appetites among investors. As central banks around the world adopt more aggressive monetary policies to tame inflation, the cost of borrowing increases, which can stifle economic growth and dampen investor sentiment.

当前的通胀环境促使投资者重新评估风险偏好。随着世界各国央行采取更激进的货币政策来抑制通胀，借贷成本上升，这可能会抑制经济增长并打击投资者情绪。

Moreover, the persistent inflation erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies, making it less attractive to hold riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. Investors may prefer to allocate their funds to safer havens, such as gold or bonds, during periods of uncertainty and market volatility.

此外，持续的通货膨胀侵蚀了法定货币的购买力，使得持有加密货币等风险较高的资产的吸引力降低。在不确定性和市场波动期间，投资者可能更愿意将资金配置到更安全的避风港，例如黄金或债券。

The diminishing inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a further indication of waning demand for cryptocurrencies. These ETFs provide investors with exposure to the price movements of cryptocurrencies without the need to hold them directly. Since the start of the year, nearly $12 billion has flowed into these investment vehicles. However, the bulk of these inflows occurred in the first quarter, and the pace has slowed significantly in recent months. The 5-day average of net inflows into spot ETFs has dropped to zero.

流入现货交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金减少进一步表明对加密货币的需求减弱。这些 ETF 为投资者提供了了解加密货币价格变动的机会，而无需直接持有它们。自今年年初以来，已有近 120 亿美元流入这些投资工具。然而，大部分资金流入发生在第一季度，且近几个月流入速度明显放缓。现货ETF的5天平均净流入已降至零。

The confluence of factors suggests a heightened risk of a significant correction in cryptocurrency prices. Markus Thielen's warning serves as a timely reminder for investors to exercise caution and manage their exposure to risk assets accordingly.

多种因素的综合表明，加密货币价格大幅调整的风险加大。马库斯·蒂伦的警告及时提醒投资者谨慎行事，并相应地管理其风险资产敞口。