隨著通膨和情緒轉變，風險資產接近修正邊緣

10X Research 創辦人 Markus Thielen 表示，由於意外且持續的通膨，風險資產正處於價格大幅調整的邊緣。目前債券市場預期降息幅度將減少，10年期公債殖利率已超過4.50%，可能預示風險資產將迎來關鍵轉折點。

Risk Assets Teeter on Precipice of Correction Amidst Inflationary Pressures and Shifting Market Sentiment

在通膨壓力和市場情緒轉變的背景下，風險資產在調整的懸崖上搖搖欲墜

Investors and market analysts are expressing growing concern over the precarious position of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as they face the prospect of a significant price correction. The primary catalyst driving this concern is the unexpected and persistent inflation that has gripped the global economy.

投資者和市場分析師對包括加密貨幣在內的風險資產的不穩定狀況表示越來越擔憂，因為他們面臨價格大幅調整的前景。引發這種擔憂的主要催化劑是困擾全球經濟的意外且持續的通貨膨脹。

Markus Thielen, the founder of 10X Research, recently issued a note to clients warning of the impending tipping point for risk assets. He emphasized that the bond market's current projections of less than three interest rate cuts and the surge in 10-year Treasury Yields surpassing 4.50% have created a potentially perilous situation.

10X Research 創辦人 Markus Thielen 最近向客戶發布了一份報告，警告風險資產即將迎來臨界點。他強調，債券市場目前預計降息次數將少於三次，10年期公債殖利率飆升至超過4.50%，造成了潛在的危險局面。

Thielen elaborated, "Most of this 2023/2024 bitcoin rally was fueled by market expectations of interest rate cuts. However, this narrative is facing serious scrutiny now, especially with the drying up of inflows into spot exchange-traded funds."

Thielen 闡述道，“2023/2024 年比特幣上漲大部分是由市場降息預期推動的。然而，這種說法現在正面臨嚴格審查，特別是在現貨交易所交易基金資金流入枯竭的情況下。”

Data from CMEGroup corroborates this shift in market sentiment. Traders have recently scaled back their pricing for 25 basis point Fed rate cuts this year from six to less than three. This adjustment reflects a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance on monetary policy to combat inflation.

芝商所的數據證實了市場情緒的這種轉變。交易商最近將聯準會今年降息 25 個基點的定價從 6 個基點下調至不到 3 個基點。這項調整反映了人們越來越多的共識，即聯準會將在貨幣政策上維持鷹派立場以應對通膨。

Historically, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have exhibited a high correlation to the broader risk asset market. When risk appetite is high, cryptocurrencies often surge in value. Conversely, when risk aversion sets in, cryptocurrencies tend to experience sharp declines.

從歷史上看，比特幣和其他加密貨幣與更廣泛的風險資產市場表現出高度相關性。當風險偏好高時，加密貨幣的價值通常會飆升。相反，當風險厭惡情緒出現時，加密貨幣往往會急劇下跌。

The current inflationary environment has prompted a reassessment of risk appetites among investors. As central banks around the world adopt more aggressive monetary policies to tame inflation, the cost of borrowing increases, which can stifle economic growth and dampen investor sentiment.

目前的通膨環境促使投資者重新評估風險偏好。隨著世界各國央行採取更激進的貨幣政策來抑制通膨，借貸成本上升，這可能會抑制經濟成長並打擊投資者情緒。

Moreover, the persistent inflation erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies, making it less attractive to hold riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. Investors may prefer to allocate their funds to safer havens, such as gold or bonds, during periods of uncertainty and market volatility.

此外，持續的通貨膨脹侵蝕了法定貨幣的購買力，使得持有加密貨幣等風險較高的資產的吸引力降低。在不確定性和市場波動期間，投資者可能更願意將資金配置到更安全的避風港，例如黃金或債券。

The diminishing inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a further indication of waning demand for cryptocurrencies. These ETFs provide investors with exposure to the price movements of cryptocurrencies without the need to hold them directly. Since the start of the year, nearly $12 billion has flowed into these investment vehicles. However, the bulk of these inflows occurred in the first quarter, and the pace has slowed significantly in recent months. The 5-day average of net inflows into spot ETFs has dropped to zero.

流入現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）的資金減少進一步顯示加密貨幣的需求減弱。這些 ETF 為投資者提供了了解加密貨幣價格變動的機會，而無需直接持有它們。自今年年初以來，已有近 120 億美元流入這些投資工具。然而，大部分資金流入發生在第一季度，且近幾個月流入速度明顯放緩。現貨ETF的5天平均淨流入已降至零。

The confluence of factors suggests a heightened risk of a significant correction in cryptocurrency prices. Markus Thielen's warning serves as a timely reminder for investors to exercise caution and manage their exposure to risk assets accordingly.

多種因素的綜合表明，加密貨幣價格大幅調整的風險加大。馬庫斯·蒂倫的警告及時提醒投資者謹慎行事，並相應地管理其風險資產敞口。