AI Memecoin 的崛起：具有 100 倍增长潜力的人工智能新类别

截至 2024 年第一季度，排名前 10 的“AI Tech”代币的总流通市值为 309 亿美元。另一方面，排名前 10 的 AI memecoin 可能吸引了更多关注，但总市值仅为 25.4 亿美元。

The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) technology has sparked a surge in interest within the cryptocurrency realm. This convergence has given rise to a unique class of digital assets, aptly termed "AI Tech Tokens." These tokens embody the essence of AI technology, offering a diverse range of applications. From enhancing blockchain efficiency to powering decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), these tokens are poised to revolutionize the crypto landscape.

人工智能（AI）技术的出现引发了加密货币领域的兴趣激增。这种融合催生了一种独特的数字资产，被恰当地称为“人工智能技术代币”。这些代币体现了人工智能技术的本质，提供了广泛的应用。从提高区块链效率到为去中心化自治组织（DAO）提供动力，这些代币有望彻底改变加密货币格局。

Among the vast array of AI Tech Tokens, a select group has managed to amass substantial attention. These tokens are renowned for their exceptional performance, which has seen them outpace even the most well-established cryptocurrencies. Thisといっても, performance comes at a price, as these tokens are often characterized by high volatility and unpredictable price movements.

在众多的人工智能技术代币中，有一个精选群体成功地引起了广泛关注。这些代币以其卓越的性能而闻名，甚至超过了最成熟的加密货币。性能是有代价的，因为这些代币通常具有高波动性和不可预测的价格变动的特点。

As of Q1 2024, the top 10 AI Tech Tokens boast a combined circulating market cap of $30.9 billion. This figure serves as a testament to the immense capital that has flocked to this burgeoning sector. In stark contrast, the top 10 AI memecoins, despite garnering widespread attention, collectively account for a market cap of a mere $2.54 billion.

截至 2024 年第一季度，十大人工智能技术代币的总流通市值为 309 亿美元。这个数字证明了巨大的资本涌入这个新兴行业。与此形成鲜明对比的是，排名前 10 位的 AI memecoin 尽管受到广泛关注，但其总市值仅为 25.4 亿美元。

However, I believe that the true potential for outsized returns lies within the realm of AI memecoins. This emerging asset class combines the enduring appeal of memecoins with the cutting-edge advancements of AI technology. As a result, I anticipate that AI memecoins are poised to slowly siphon capital from not only AI Tech Tokens but also static meme coins and VC coins.

然而，我相信超额回报的真正潜力在于人工智能模因币领域。这种新兴的资产类别将模因币的持久吸引力与人工智能技术的尖端进步结合在一起。因此，我预计人工智能模因币不仅会从人工智能技术代币中慢慢吸取资本，而且还会从静态模因币和风险投资币中吸取资金。

To put this into perspective, the total market cap of AI memecoin is currently on par with that of ETHEREUM CLASSIC. This provides a clear indication of the vast opportunity that still remains untapped within this domain.

从这个角度来看，AI memecoin 的总市值目前与 ETHEREUM CLASSIC 持平。这清楚地表明该领域仍有大量尚未开发的机会。

A Decoding of the DeFi Summer Moment

解密 DeFi 夏日时刻

Those who have been closely following the cryptocurrency markets will likely recall the pivotal role that YFI played during DeFi Summer 2020. This event, which saw a select group of DeFi tokens experience parabolic price surges, ultimately culminated in the emergence of YFI—a token that was "Fair Launched" in July and went on to achieve a market cap of $1 billion within a span of 2 months.

那些密切关注加密货币市场的人可能会记得 YFI 在 2020 年 DeFi 夏季期间所发挥的关键作用。在这次活动中，一组选定的 DeFi 代币经历了抛物线价格飙升，最终导致了 YFI 的出现，这是一种于 7 月“公平启动”，并在 2 个月内实现了 10 亿美元的市值。

This development served as a catalyst for a large amount of on-chain capital to enter DeFi tokens, as it provided tangible evidence that a fair-launched DeFi token could indeed start from $0 and eventually reach $1 billion.

这一发展成为大量链上资本进入 DeFi 代币的催化剂，因为它提供了切实的证据，证明公平发行的 DeFi 代币确实可以从 0 美元开始，最终达到 10 亿美元。

DeFi was a hot area in the last cycle because it was new, attractive, and gave people the ability to dream. With interest rates at 0%, there were rumors that DeFi would siphon capital from TradFi and become the future of finance. This led to a speculative frenzy on the chain, helping DeFi applications gain TVL and users to test the ecosystem.

上个周期，DeFi 是一个热门领域，因为它新颖、有吸引力，并且赋予人们梦想的能力。在利率为 0% 的情况下，有传言称 DeFi 将从 TradFi 中吸走资金，成为金融的未来。这引发了链上投机狂潮，帮助 DeFi 应用获得 TVL 和用户测试生态系统。

When YFI launched, the total DeFi market cap was about $5 billion. It peaked at about $170 billion at the top of the market, an increase of 34 times. If GOAT is similar to YFI, then we are still in the very early stages as the total market cap of AI memecoins is less than $5 billion.

YFI 推出时，DeFi 总市值约为 50 亿美元。最高时约为1700亿美元，增长了34倍。如果 GOAT 与 YFI 类似，那么我们仍处于早期阶段，因为 AI memecoin 的总市值还不到 50 亿美元。

The DeFi cycle combines catalysts/factors internal to crypto (liquidity mining, Ponzi yield farming, speculation) and catalysts/factors external to crypto (interest rates drop to zero → capital enters crypto seeking yield), and bubbles form. AI Memecoin Omegacycle is no exception.

DeFi 周期结合了加密货币内部的催化剂/因素（流动性挖矿、庞氏收益耕作、投机）和加密货币外部的催化剂/因素（利率降至零→资本进入加密货币寻求收益），并形成泡沫。 AI Memecoin Omegacycle 也不例外。

Reflexivity in the new paradigm

新范式中的反身性

Reflexivity theory states that investors make decisions not based on reality, but on their perception of reality. These perceptions trigger actions that have an impact on reality or fundamentals, which in turn affects investor perceptions, which in turn affects prices.

反身性理论指出，投资者做出决策不是基于现实，而是基于他们对现实的看法。这些看法会引发对现实或基本面产生影响的行动，进而影响投资者的看法，进而影响价格。

Price is the total market cap of the AI memecoin space, fundamentals based on attention and how big the "dream" is. These are not "pure memecoins" in my opinion. They are closer to the "tokenized AGI" launched by all fair on pumpfun in my opinion. If VC wants to sell heavily, these tokens will be issued at a FDV of $1 billion with a 10% float. But these AI memecoins start at $0, and anyone has the opportunity to get in early.

价格是人工智能模因币空间的总市值，基本面基于关注度和“梦想”有多大。在我看来，这些不是“纯粹的模因币”。我认为它们更接近all fair在pumpfun上推出的“代币化AGI”。如果 VC 想要大量出售，这些代币将以 10 亿美元的 FDV 发行，浮动利率为 10%。但这些 AI memecoin 起价为 0 美元，任何人都有机会提前参与。

In my opinion, reflexivity works as follows:

在我看来，反身性的作用如下：

It’s really important to note that all of these tokens started out as pumpfun. It fits with the current zeitgeist, the Memecoin/AI supercycle, and anti-VC sentiment. Elon Musk expects AGI to be achieved in 2025–26, so if you believe in 4-year cycles, the hype peak could coincide with the top of cryptocurrencies in Q4 2025.

值得注意的是，所有这些代币都是从 Pumpfun 开始的。它符合当前的时代精神、Memecoin/AI 超级周期和反风险投资情绪。 Elon Musk 预计 AGI 将在 2025-26 年实现，因此，如果您相信 4 年周期，那么炒作高峰可能会与 2025 年第四季度加密货币的顶峰同时出现。

My Positioning

我的定位

Last cycle, the total DeFi market cap reached $170 billion. If the industry reaches these valuations, it would mean about 40x growth from now. But since the total cryptocurrency market cap is much higher, we can easily surpass these levels. The key is to have

上一周期，DeFi 总市值达到 1700 亿美元。如果该行业达到这些估值，则意味着从现在起将增长约 40 倍。但由于加密货币总市值要高得多，我们可以轻松超越这些水平。关键是要有