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创纪录数量的美元支持的稳定币和大额比特币(BTC)交易的激增可能构成更广泛的比特币上涨的基石
A record amount of dollar-pegged stablecoins and a spike in large bitcoin (BTC) transactions could set the stage for a broader BTC rally in the coming weeks, keeping the asset’s bullish October seasonality intact.
与美元挂钩的稳定币数量创历史新高,比特币 (BTC) 交易量激增,可能为未来几周更广泛的 BTC 反弹奠定基础,从而保持该资产 10 月份的看涨季节性。
Stablecoin liquidity has continued to grow to a record $169 billion in late September, data from CryptoQuant shows, indicating a 31% year-to-date (YTD) increase.
CryptoQuant 的数据显示,稳定币流动性在 9 月底继续增长至创纪录的 1690 亿美元,今年迄今 (YTD) 增长了 31%。
The dominant players remain Tether's USDT, whose market cap increased by $28 billion to nearly $120 billion with 71% of the market share, and Circle’s USDC, which recorded a market cap rise of $11 billion to $36 billion, a 44% increase YTD, with a 21% market share.
主导者仍然是 Tether 的 USDT,其市值增长了 280 亿美元,达到近 1200 亿美元,占据 71% 的市场份额;而 Circle 的 USDC,今年迄今市值增长了 110 亿美元,达到 360 亿美元,增长了 44%, 21%的市场份额。
Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to offer price stability by being pegged to a reference asset, which could be fiat money like the US dollar, commodities like gold, or other cryptocurrencies. Each stablecoin is supposed to be backed by an equivalent amount of fiat currency held in reserve.
稳定币是一种加密货币,旨在通过与参考资产挂钩来提供价格稳定性,参考资产可以是美元等法定货币、黄金等大宗商品或其他加密货币。每个稳定币都应该由等量的法定货币储备支持。
Stablecoins are typically issued against fiat deposits, meaning an increase in stablecoin supply is an increase in actual fiat money placed into the crypto ecosystem. Most crypto spot and futures trading are conducted against stablecoin pairs and an increase in the stablecoin liquidity signals a potential dry powder that can be deployed for crypto purchases.
稳定币通常是针对法定存款发行的,这意味着稳定币供应的增加意味着投入加密生态系统的实际法定货币的增加。大多数加密货币现货和期货交易都是针对稳定币对进行的,稳定币流动性的增加预示着可以用于加密货币购买的潜在干粉。
Historic movements show a clear correlation between the number of stablecoins held on crypto exchanges, which has grown 20% this year, and higher bitcoin prices.
历史走势表明,加密货币交易所持有的稳定币数量(今年增长了 20%)与比特币价格上涨之间存在明显的相关性。
“Larger balances of stablecoins on exchanges are positively correlated with higher bitcoin and crypto prices,” CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said. “Since January 2023, when the current bull cycle officially started, the total amount of USDT (ERC20) on exchanges went from $9.2 billion to $22.7 billion (+146%).”
CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 表示:“交易所上稳定币余额的增加与比特币和加密货币价格的上涨呈正相关。” “自 2023 年 1 月当前牛市周期正式开始以来,交易所的 USDT(ERC20)总金额从 92 亿美元增至 227 亿美元(+146%)。”
“Notably, these balances have grown by 20%, even as Bitcoin’s price has remained flat,” Moreno said.
“值得注意的是,尽管比特币的价格保持平稳,但这些余额增长了 20%,”莫雷诺说。
Bitcoin is down over 6% since the start of October, data shows, a month that has only twice ended in the red since 2013, chalking gains of as high as 60% and an average of 22% to make it the best for investor returns. Price jumps of as high as 16% generally appear after October 15, with the available stablecoin liquidity likely supporting a rise.
数据显示,自 10 月初以来,比特币已下跌超过 6%,自 2013 年以来,该月仅两次出现亏损,涨幅高达 60%,平均涨幅为 22%,使其成为投资者回报最好的月份。 10 月 15 日之后,价格通常会出现高达 16% 的上涨,可用的稳定币流动性可能会支撑价格上涨。
A key catalyst in the months ahead is the U.S. presidential election, which could set the tone for general monetary and crypto policies for the next four years.
未来几个月的一个关键催化剂是美国总统大选,这可能为未来四年的总体货币和加密货币政策定下基调。
On-chain analytics firm Santiment reported a bump in whale transactions on the Bitcoin network, which has historically preceded a price surge. Whales are a colloquial term referring to large holders of any asset whose market moves can directly influence prices.
链上分析公司 Santiment 报告称,比特币网络上的鲸鱼交易量大幅增加,这在历史上是在价格飙升之前发生的。鲸鱼是一个通俗术语,指的是市场走势可以直接影响价格的任何资产的大持有者。
“Our metrics indicate a major spike in dormant activity on Bitcoin's network to pair with $37.4B in on-chain volume Tuesday, the most in 7 months,” Santiment said in an X post. “Historically, stagnant BTC moving back into regular circulation is a positive for future price movement.”
Santiment 在 X 帖子中表示:“我们的指标显示,周二比特币网络上的休眠活动大幅增加,链上交易量达到 37.4B 美元,为 7 个月以来的最高水平。” “从历史上看,停滞的比特币重新回归正常流通对未来的价格走势是有利的。”
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