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創紀錄數量的美元支持的穩定幣和大額比特幣(BTC)交易的激增可能構成更廣泛的比特幣上漲的基石
A record amount of dollar-pegged stablecoins and a spike in large bitcoin (BTC) transactions could set the stage for a broader BTC rally in the coming weeks, keeping the asset’s bullish October seasonality intact.
與美元掛鉤的穩定幣數量創歷史新高,比特幣 (BTC) 交易量激增,可能為未來幾週更廣泛的 BTC 反彈奠定基礎,從而保持該資產 10 月的看漲季節性。
Stablecoin liquidity has continued to grow to a record $169 billion in late September, data from CryptoQuant shows, indicating a 31% year-to-date (YTD) increase.
CryptoQuant 的數據顯示,穩定幣流動性在 9 月底繼續增長至創紀錄的 1,690 億美元,今年迄今 (YTD) 增長了 31%。
The dominant players remain Tether's USDT, whose market cap increased by $28 billion to nearly $120 billion with 71% of the market share, and Circle’s USDC, which recorded a market cap rise of $11 billion to $36 billion, a 44% increase YTD, with a 21% market share.
主導者仍然是Tether 的USDT,其市值增長了280 億美元,達到近1200 億美元,佔據71% 的市場份額;而Circle 的USDC,今年迄今市值增長了110 億美元,達到360 億美元,增長了44%, 21%的市佔率。
Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to offer price stability by being pegged to a reference asset, which could be fiat money like the US dollar, commodities like gold, or other cryptocurrencies. Each stablecoin is supposed to be backed by an equivalent amount of fiat currency held in reserve.
穩定幣是一種加密貨幣,旨在透過與參考資產掛鉤來提供價格穩定性,參考資產可以是美元等法定貨幣、黃金等大宗商品或其他加密貨幣。每個穩定幣都應該由等量的法定貨幣儲備來支持。
Stablecoins are typically issued against fiat deposits, meaning an increase in stablecoin supply is an increase in actual fiat money placed into the crypto ecosystem. Most crypto spot and futures trading are conducted against stablecoin pairs and an increase in the stablecoin liquidity signals a potential dry powder that can be deployed for crypto purchases.
穩定幣通常是針對法定存款發行的,這意味著穩定幣供應的增加意味著投入加密生態系統的實際法定貨幣的增加。大多數加密貨幣現貨和期貨交易都是針對穩定幣對進行的,穩定幣流動性的增加預示著可以用於加密貨幣購買的潛在乾粉。
Historic movements show a clear correlation between the number of stablecoins held on crypto exchanges, which has grown 20% this year, and higher bitcoin prices.
歷史走勢表明,加密貨幣交易所持有的穩定幣數量(今年增長了 20%)與比特幣價格上漲之間存在明顯的相關性。
“Larger balances of stablecoins on exchanges are positively correlated with higher bitcoin and crypto prices,” CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said. “Since January 2023, when the current bull cycle officially started, the total amount of USDT (ERC20) on exchanges went from $9.2 billion to $22.7 billion (+146%).”
CryptoQuant 研究主管 Julio Moreno 表示:“交易所上穩定幣餘額的增加與比特幣和加密貨幣價格的上漲呈正相關。” 「自 2023 年 1 月當前牛市週期正式開始以來,交易所的 USDT(ERC20)總金額從 92 億美元增至 227 億美元(+146%)。”
“Notably, these balances have grown by 20%, even as Bitcoin’s price has remained flat,” Moreno said.
「值得注意的是,儘管比特幣的價格保持平穩,但這些餘額增加了 20%,」莫雷諾說。
Bitcoin is down over 6% since the start of October, data shows, a month that has only twice ended in the red since 2013, chalking gains of as high as 60% and an average of 22% to make it the best for investor returns. Price jumps of as high as 16% generally appear after October 15, with the available stablecoin liquidity likely supporting a rise.
數據顯示,自 10 月初以來,比特幣已下跌超過 6%,自 2013 年以來,該月僅兩次出現虧損,漲幅高達 60%,平均漲幅為 22%,使其成為投資者回報最好的月份。 10 月 15 日之後,價格通常會出現高達 16% 的上漲,可用的穩定幣流動性可能會支撐價格上漲。
A key catalyst in the months ahead is the U.S. presidential election, which could set the tone for general monetary and crypto policies for the next four years.
未來幾個月的一個關鍵催化劑是美國總統大選,這可能為未來四年的整體貨幣和加密貨幣政策定下基調。
On-chain analytics firm Santiment reported a bump in whale transactions on the Bitcoin network, which has historically preceded a price surge. Whales are a colloquial term referring to large holders of any asset whose market moves can directly influence prices.
鏈上分析公司 Santiment 報告稱,比特幣網路上的鯨魚交易量大幅增加,這在歷史上是在價格飆升之前發生的。鯨魚是一個通俗術語,指的是市場走勢可以直接影響價格的任何資產的大持有者。
“Our metrics indicate a major spike in dormant activity on Bitcoin's network to pair with $37.4B in on-chain volume Tuesday, the most in 7 months,” Santiment said in an X post. “Historically, stagnant BTC moving back into regular circulation is a positive for future price movement.”
Santiment 在 X 貼文中表示:“我們的指標顯示,週二比特幣網路上的休眠活動大幅增加,鏈上交易量達到 37.4B 美元,為 7 個月以來的最高水平。” “從歷史上看,停滯的比特幣重新回歸正常流通對未來的價格走勢是有利的。”
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