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美国宏观经济对比特币的影响重新浮现,加密货币对政策制定者的发展做出了回应。
BitMex founder Arthur Hayes believes that rate cuts alone will not be sufficient to propel Bitcoin (BTC) above the crucial psychological level of $60,000.
BitMex 创始人 Arthur Hayes 认为,仅靠降息不足以推动比特币 (BTC) 突破 60,000 美元的关键心理水平。
Hayes challenges the assumption that lower interest rates automatically lead to higher value for riskier assets, such as Bitcoin. While Hayes acknowledges that rate cuts often negatively correlate with the value of risk-on assets, he argues that such cuts would primarily reduce the interest rate differential between currencies like the USD, GBP, EUR, and the Japanese yen, rather than significantly boosting Bitcoin’s value.
海耶斯挑战了这样的假设:较低的利率会自动导致比特币等风险资产的价值更高。尽管海耶斯承认降息通常与风险资产的价值呈负相关,但他认为,这种降息主要会缩小美元、英镑、欧元和日元等货币之间的利差,而不是显着提振比特币的价格。价值。
“The danger of the yen carry trade unwind will reappear and could derail the party..”
“日元套利交易解除的危险将再次出现,并可能使聚会脱轨。”
Carry trading occurs when traders short futures while simultaneously buying the underlying asset. They aim to profit from price differences between the spot and futures markets.
当交易者做空期货同时买入标的资产时,就会发生套利交易。他们的目标是从现货和期货市场之间的价差中获利。
Hayes suggests that if the yen strengthens, it could prompt traders to unwind their dollar-yen carry trade positions. He argues that while rate cuts might temporarily stabilize markets, they could also speed up the narrowing of the interest rate differential between the dollar and yen. This would, in turn, strengthen the yen further and lead to more unwinding of carry trade positions.
海耶斯表示,如果日元走强,可能会促使交易员平仓美元兑日元套利交易头寸。他认为,虽然降息可能暂时稳定市场,但也可能加速美元和日元之间利差的缩小。反过来,这将进一步强化日元并导致更多套利交易头寸平仓。
“We have a battle between the positive vs. the negative forces. Given that the amount of global financial assets financed in yen is in the tens of trillions of dollars, I believe the negative market reaction of a rapid yen carry trade unwind due to a quickly strengthening yen will overwhelm any benefit to be had from minor USD, GBP, or EUR rate cuts. I believe that the witches and warlocks heading the Fed, BOE, and ECB recognize that they must be willing to ease and expand their balance sheets to counter the adverse effects of a strengthening yen,” the blog post read.
“我们正在积极与消极力量之间进行斗争。鉴于以日元融资的全球金融资产数量达数十万亿美元,我相信日元快速升值导致日元套利交易迅速平仓所带来的负面市场反应将压倒小美元所带来的任何好处,英镑或欧元降息。我相信领导美联储、英国央行和欧洲央行的巫师们认识到,他们必须愿意放松和扩大资产负债表,以应对日元升值的不利影响。”
Hayes argues that to effectively stop the financial market’s struggles, more printed money and an expanding Fed balance sheet are needed. His comments came after Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, where Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in September. The Fed Chair noted increased confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to 2%.
海耶斯认为,为了有效阻止金融市场的困境,需要印更多的钞票和扩大美联储的资产负债表。他的评论是在杰罗姆·鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上发表讲话之后发表的,鲍威尔在会上暗示可能在 9 月份降息。美联储主席指出,人们对通胀可持续达到 2% 的信心有所增强。
As BeInCrypto reported, experts attribute Powell’s speech as the catalyst for Bitcoin’s recent rally to $65,000. CoinShares noted that his remarks spurred capital inflows into digital assets.
据 BeInCrypto 报道,专家将鲍威尔的讲话视为比特币近期涨至 65,000 美元的催化剂。 CoinShares 指出,他的言论刺激了资本流入数字资产。
The growing market capitalization of stablecoins has also been credited for Bitcoin’s surge. Matrixport highlighted an increase in stablecoin printing over the past weeks, suggesting that new money is entering the crypto market.
稳定币市值的不断增长也被认为是比特币飙升的原因。 Matrixport 强调了过去几周稳定币印刷量的增加,这表明新资金正在进入加密货币市场。
However, Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet, mentioned that the current economic environment still features high-interest rates. He believes a major Bitcoin breakout will only occur when the Fed starts cutting rates and market activity fully recovers.
不过,Bitget Wallet首席运营官Alvin Kan提到,当前的经济环境仍然以高利率为特征。他认为,只有当美联储开始降息并且市场活动完全恢复时,比特币才会出现重大突破。
BeInCrypto data shows Bitcoin is trading for $59,780 at press time, down 0.37% since Thursday’s session opened.
BeInCrypto 数据显示,截至发稿时,比特币交易价格为 59,780 美元,自周四开盘以来下跌 0.37%。
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