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美國宏觀經濟對比特幣的影響重新浮現,加密貨幣對政策制定者的發展做出了回應。
BitMex founder Arthur Hayes believes that rate cuts alone will not be sufficient to propel Bitcoin (BTC) above the crucial psychological level of $60,000.
BitMex 創辦人 Arthur Hayes 認為,僅靠降息不足以推動比特幣 (BTC) 突破 6 萬美元的關鍵心理水平。
Hayes challenges the assumption that lower interest rates automatically lead to higher value for riskier assets, such as Bitcoin. While Hayes acknowledges that rate cuts often negatively correlate with the value of risk-on assets, he argues that such cuts would primarily reduce the interest rate differential between currencies like the USD, GBP, EUR, and the Japanese yen, rather than significantly boosting Bitcoin’s value.
海耶斯挑戰了這樣的假設:較低的利率會自動導致比特幣等風險資產的價值更高。儘管海耶斯承認降息通常與風險資產的價值呈負相關,但他認為,這種降息主要會縮小美元、英鎊、歐元和日圓等貨幣之間的利差,而不是顯著提振比特幣的價格。
“The danger of the yen carry trade unwind will reappear and could derail the party..”
“日元套利交易解除的危險將再次出現,並可能使聚會脫軌。”
Carry trading occurs when traders short futures while simultaneously buying the underlying asset. They aim to profit from price differences between the spot and futures markets.
當交易者做空期貨同時買進標的資產時,就會發生套利交易。他們的目標是從現貨和期貨市場之間的價差中獲利。
Hayes suggests that if the yen strengthens, it could prompt traders to unwind their dollar-yen carry trade positions. He argues that while rate cuts might temporarily stabilize markets, they could also speed up the narrowing of the interest rate differential between the dollar and yen. This would, in turn, strengthen the yen further and lead to more unwinding of carry trade positions.
海耶斯表示,如果日圓走強,可能會促使交易員平倉美元兌日圓套利交易部位。他認為,雖然降息可能會暫時穩定市場,但也可能加速美元和日圓之間利差的縮小。反過來,這將進一步強化日圓並導致更多套利交易部位平倉。
“We have a battle between the positive vs. the negative forces. Given that the amount of global financial assets financed in yen is in the tens of trillions of dollars, I believe the negative market reaction of a rapid yen carry trade unwind due to a quickly strengthening yen will overwhelm any benefit to be had from minor USD, GBP, or EUR rate cuts. I believe that the witches and warlocks heading the Fed, BOE, and ECB recognize that they must be willing to ease and expand their balance sheets to counter the adverse effects of a strengthening yen,” the blog post read.
「我們正在積極與消極力量之間進行鬥爭。鑑於以日圓融資的全球金融資產數量達數十萬億美元,我相信日圓快速升值導致日圓套利交易迅速平倉所帶來的負面市場反應將壓倒小美元所帶來的任何好處,英鎊或歐元降息。我相信領導聯準會、英國央行和歐洲央行的巫師們認識到,他們必須願意放鬆和擴大資產負債表,以應對日圓升值的不利影響。
Hayes argues that to effectively stop the financial market’s struggles, more printed money and an expanding Fed balance sheet are needed. His comments came after Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, where Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in September. The Fed Chair noted increased confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to 2%.
海耶斯認為,為了有效阻止金融市場的困境,需要印更多的鈔票和擴大聯準會的資產負債表。他的評論是在傑羅姆鮑威爾在傑克遜霍爾研討會上發表講話之後發表的,鮑威爾在會上暗示可能在 9 月降息。聯準會主席指出,人們對通膨可持續達到 2% 的信心有所增強。
As BeInCrypto reported, experts attribute Powell’s speech as the catalyst for Bitcoin’s recent rally to $65,000. CoinShares noted that his remarks spurred capital inflows into digital assets.
根據 BeInCrypto 報導,專家將鮑威爾的演講視為比特幣近期漲至 65,000 美元的催化劑。 CoinShares 指出,他的言論刺激了資本流入數位資產。
The growing market capitalization of stablecoins has also been credited for Bitcoin’s surge. Matrixport highlighted an increase in stablecoin printing over the past weeks, suggesting that new money is entering the crypto market.
穩定幣市值的不斷增長也被認為是比特幣飆升的原因。 Matrixport 強調了過去幾週穩定幣印製量的增加,這表明新資金正在進入加密貨幣市場。
However, Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet, mentioned that the current economic environment still features high-interest rates. He believes a major Bitcoin breakout will only occur when the Fed starts cutting rates and market activity fully recovers.
不過,Bitget Wallet營運長Alvin Kan提到,當前的經濟環境仍以高利率為特徵。他認為,只有當聯準會開始降息並且市場活動完全恢復時,比特幣才會出現重大突破。
BeInCrypto data shows Bitcoin is trading for $59,780 at press time, down 0.37% since Thursday’s session opened.
BeInCrypto 數據顯示,截至發稿時,比特幣交易價格為 59,780 美元,自周四開盤以來下跌 0.37%。
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