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如果竞选足够接近,2024 年总统选举的结果可能完全取决于一个摇摆州的结果——使该州成为一个“决定性”的转折点。
The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the latest polling averages. According to FiveThirtyEight's presidential election forecast, Harris wins in 57 out of 100 simulations, making it practically a coin-flip race.
2024 年总统竞选将十分激烈,在最新的民调平均值中,副总统卡马拉·哈里斯以微弱优势领先于前总统唐纳德·特朗普。根据 FiveThirtyEight 的总统选举预测,哈里斯在 100 次模拟中赢了 57 次,这实际上是一场抛硬币的竞赛。
The most critical swing states are all on a knife's edge in the polls. Based on the latest state polling averages, Harris leads by around 1 to 2 points in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump holds roughly a 1-point edge in Arizona and Georgia, while North Carolina is essentially tied.
最关键的摇摆州在民意调查中都处于危险边缘。根据最新的各州民意调查平均值,哈里斯在密歇根州、内华达州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州领先约 1 至 2 个百分点。特朗普在亚利桑那州和佐治亚州大约领先1分,而北卡罗来纳州则基本持平。
This group of battlegrounds is very likely to provide us with the eventual “tipping-point” state in the 2024 presidential election. If we line up each state (and the congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska) by how large the margin of victory is for the winner of that state — from most Democratic to most Republican, or vice versa — the tipping point is the contest that hands the Electoral College winner the clinching 270th electoral vote. That mark represents an outright majority of today's 538 total electoral votes, which is necessary for someone to win the presidential election.
这组战场很可能为我们提供2024年总统选举最终的“临界点”状态。如果我们将每个州(以及缅因州和内布拉斯加州的国会选区)按照该州获胜者的胜利差距有多大(从大多数民主党到大多数共和党,或反之亦然)进行排列,那么转折点就是胜出的比赛选举团获胜者赢得了第 270 张选举人票。这一标志代表了今天 538 张选举人票中的绝对多数,这是某人赢得总统选举所必需的。
Of course, each presidential election has a tipping point, regardless of whether it's a landslide, in which the tipping point is largely academic, or a nail-biter, in which we're closely monitoring that state as a potential decider of the outcome — as could well be the case this year.
当然,每次总统选举都有一个转折点,无论是压倒性的,其中转折点主要是学术性的,还是紧张的,我们正在密切监视该州作为结果的潜在决定者 -今年很可能就是这种情况。
Looking at FiveThirtyEight's forecast, the most likely tipping-point state across all scenarios for the 2024 election is Pennsylvania. In 18 out of 100 cases, the Keystone State provides the winning electoral votes for either Harris or Trump.* The next-most-likely tipping points are North Carolina, Michigan, Georgia, and Florida, each of which have around a 1 in 10 shot of filling that role. Beyond them, the remaining scenarios mostly involve Wisconsin, Arizona, Texas, Nevada, and Minnesota serving as the tipping point.
从 FiveThirtyEight 的预测来看,2024 年大选所有情景中最有可能成为临界点的州是宾夕法尼亚州。在 100 起案件中,有 18 起,基斯通州为哈里斯或特朗普提供了获胜的选举人票。*下一个最有可能的转折点是北卡罗来纳州、密歇根州、佐治亚州和佛罗里达州,每个州的概率约为十分之一。填补这个角色的镜头。除此之外,剩下的场景主要涉及威斯康星州、亚利桑那州、德克萨斯州、内华达州和明尼苏达州作为引爆点。
Even more notably, considering how close this election is, its outcome could rest entirely on which way the tipping-point state votes — making that state a “decisive” tipping point. As a result, the 2024 contest could join the short list of races absolutely decided by the outcome in that place — that is, contests in which neither candidate could win a majority in the Electoral College without capturing the tipping-point state.
更值得注意的是,考虑到这次选举的比分有多接近,其结果可能完全取决于临界点州的投票方式——使该州成为“决定性”的临界点。因此,2024 年的竞选可能会加入完全由当地结果决定的竞选候选名单中——也就是说,在这些竞选中,任何一位候选人都无法在不占领临界点状态的情况下赢得选举团多数席位。
Critically, Pennsylvania's importance remains paramount in the smaller number of scenarios involving a decisive tipping-point state — which make up slightly more than 1 in 8 scenarios in FiveThirtyEight's presidential forecast. Now, thinking probabilistically, an event that has around a 1 in 8 chance of happening isn't terribly likely to happen, but remains highly plausible. For instance, it's about the same chance as flipping a coin three times and getting three heads in a row!
至关重要的是,在涉及决定性临界点国家的少数情景中,宾夕法尼亚州的重要性仍然至关重要——在 FiveThirtyEight 的总统预测中,这种情况仅占八分之一多一点。现在,从概率角度思考,发生概率约为八分之一的事件发生的可能性并不大,但仍然非常有可能发生。例如,抛硬币三次并连续出现三个正面的机会大约相同!
Among these more select cases, Pennsylvania has around a 17 in 100 shot of being the tipping point, followed by Michigan at about 14 in 100, North Carolina at 13 in 100, and Georgia at 11 in 100. The potential nail-biting involved in these scenarios could permanently damage your cuticles. Just consider that the vote count in Pennsylvania may be slow because election law prevents officials from beginning to process mail ballots before 7 a.m. on Election Day. And in Georgia, Republicans on the state election board have implemented rules to force cumbersome — and slower, more error-prone — hand counts of all votes at each precinct to check if the total matches the machine count, although those changes face a legal challenge to their implementation.
在这些更精选的案例中,宾夕法尼亚州大约有十分之 17 的几率成为临界点,其次是密歇根州,大约是十分之 14,北卡罗来纳州是十分之 13,佐治亚州是十分之 11。这些情况可能会永久损害您的角质层。试想一下,宾夕法尼亚州的计票速度可能会很慢,因为选举法禁止官员在选举日上午 7 点之前开始处理邮寄选票。在佐治亚州,州选举委员会的共和党人实施了规定,强制对每个选区的所有选票进行繁琐且更慢、更容易出错的手工清点,以检查总数是否与机器计数相符,尽管这些变化面临法律挑战到他们的实施。
Regardless of the pace of the count, however, the campaigns and their allies well know how essential these states, especially Pennsylvania, are to winning in November. As of mid-September, Harris and pro-Harris groups had reserved about $76 million in ads in the Keystone State through Election Day, based on a recent analysis by AdImpact, compared with around $61 million by Trump and pro-Trump outfits. That combined total of nearly $137 million accounted for more than one-quarter of all ad bookings in the seven leading swing states, with (appropriately) Michigan the next-closest, with just shy of one-fifth (about $97 million combined). Pennsylvania has also hosted more presidential campaign events than any other state, per data from VoteHub, again followed by Michigan.
然而,无论计票速度如何,竞选团队及其盟友都清楚这些州,尤其是宾夕法尼亚州,对于 11 月的胜利有多么重要。根据 AdImpact 最近的分析,截至 9 月中旬,哈里斯和支持哈里斯的团体在选举日之前在基斯通州预留了约 7600 万美元的广告,而特朗普和支持特朗普的团体预留了约 6100 万美元。总金额接近 1.37 亿美元,占七个主要摇摆州所有广告预订的四分之一以上,(适当地)密歇根州位居第二,略低于五分之一(总计约 9700 万美元)。根据 VoteHub 的数据,宾夕法尼亚州举办的总统竞选活动也比其他任何州都多,其次是密歇根州。
That Pennsylvania, Michigan, or another key swing state could prove singularly decisive has positioned 2024 to potentially join a rare group of elections whose outcome rested solely on the tipping-point state. That's been true of just seven of the 39 presidential elections
宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州或另一个关键摇摆州可能具有非凡的决定性,这使得 2024 年有可能加入一组罕见的选举,其结果完全取决于临界点州。 39 次总统选举中只有 7 次是这样的
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