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如果競選足夠接近,2024 年總統選舉的結果可能完全取決於一個搖擺州的結果——使該州成為一個「決定性」的轉折點。
The 2024 presidential race is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the latest polling averages. According to FiveThirtyEight's presidential election forecast, Harris wins in 57 out of 100 simulations, making it practically a coin-flip race.
2024 年總統競選將十分激烈,在最新的民調平均值中,副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯以微弱優勢領先前總統唐納德·特朗普。根據 FiveThirtyEight 的總統選舉預測,哈里斯在 100 次模擬中贏了 57 次,這實際上是一場拋硬幣的競賽。
The most critical swing states are all on a knife's edge in the polls. Based on the latest state polling averages, Harris leads by around 1 to 2 points in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump holds roughly a 1-point edge in Arizona and Georgia, while North Carolina is essentially tied.
最關鍵的搖擺州在民調中都處於危險邊緣。根據最新的各州民調平均值,哈里斯在密西根州、內華達州、賓州和威斯康辛州領先約 1 至 2 個百分點。川普在亞利桑那州和喬治亞州大約領先1分,而北卡羅來納州則基本持平。
This group of battlegrounds is very likely to provide us with the eventual “tipping-point” state in the 2024 presidential election. If we line up each state (and the congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska) by how large the margin of victory is for the winner of that state — from most Democratic to most Republican, or vice versa — the tipping point is the contest that hands the Electoral College winner the clinching 270th electoral vote. That mark represents an outright majority of today's 538 total electoral votes, which is necessary for someone to win the presidential election.
這群戰場很可能為我們提供2024年總統大選最終的「臨界點」狀態。如果我們將每個州(以及緬因州和內布拉斯加州的國會選區)按照該州獲勝者的勝利差距有多大(從大多數民主黨到大多數共和黨,或反之亦然)進行排列,那麼轉捩點就是勝出的比賽選舉團獲勝者贏得了第 270 張選舉人票。這個標誌代表了今天 538 張選舉人票中的絕對多數,這是某人贏得總統選舉所必需的。
Of course, each presidential election has a tipping point, regardless of whether it's a landslide, in which the tipping point is largely academic, or a nail-biter, in which we're closely monitoring that state as a potential decider of the outcome — as could well be the case this year.
當然,每次總統選舉都有一個轉折點,無論是壓倒性的,其中轉折點主要是學術性的,還是緊張的,我們正在密切監視該州作為結果的潛在決定者 -今年很可能就是這種情況。
Looking at FiveThirtyEight's forecast, the most likely tipping-point state across all scenarios for the 2024 election is Pennsylvania. In 18 out of 100 cases, the Keystone State provides the winning electoral votes for either Harris or Trump.* The next-most-likely tipping points are North Carolina, Michigan, Georgia, and Florida, each of which have around a 1 in 10 shot of filling that role. Beyond them, the remaining scenarios mostly involve Wisconsin, Arizona, Texas, Nevada, and Minnesota serving as the tipping point.
從 FiveThirtyEight 的預測來看,2024 年大選所有情境中最有可能成為臨界點的州是賓州。在100 起案件中,有18 起,基斯通州為哈里斯或川普提供了獲勝的選舉人票。每個州的機率約為十分之一。除此之外,剩下的場景主要涉及威斯康辛州、亞利桑那州、德克薩斯州、內華達州和明尼蘇達州作為引爆點。
Even more notably, considering how close this election is, its outcome could rest entirely on which way the tipping-point state votes — making that state a “decisive” tipping point. As a result, the 2024 contest could join the short list of races absolutely decided by the outcome in that place — that is, contests in which neither candidate could win a majority in the Electoral College without capturing the tipping-point state.
更值得注意的是,考慮到這次選舉的比分有多接近,其結果可能完全取決於臨界點州的投票方式——使該州成為「決定性」的臨界點。因此,2024 年的競選可能會加入完全由當地結果決定的競選候選名單中——也就是說,在這些競選中,任何一位候選人都無法在不佔領臨界點狀態的情況下贏得選舉團多數席位。
Critically, Pennsylvania's importance remains paramount in the smaller number of scenarios involving a decisive tipping-point state — which make up slightly more than 1 in 8 scenarios in FiveThirtyEight's presidential forecast. Now, thinking probabilistically, an event that has around a 1 in 8 chance of happening isn't terribly likely to happen, but remains highly plausible. For instance, it's about the same chance as flipping a coin three times and getting three heads in a row!
至關重要的是,在涉及決定性臨界點國家的少數情景中,賓州的重要性仍然至關重要——在 FiveThirtyEight 的總統預測中,這種情況僅佔八分之一多一點。現在,從機率角度思考,發生機率約為八分之一的事件發生的可能性並不大,但仍然非常有可能發生。例如,拋硬幣三次並連續出現三個正面的機會大約相同!
Among these more select cases, Pennsylvania has around a 17 in 100 shot of being the tipping point, followed by Michigan at about 14 in 100, North Carolina at 13 in 100, and Georgia at 11 in 100. The potential nail-biting involved in these scenarios could permanently damage your cuticles. Just consider that the vote count in Pennsylvania may be slow because election law prevents officials from beginning to process mail ballots before 7 a.m. on Election Day. And in Georgia, Republicans on the state election board have implemented rules to force cumbersome — and slower, more error-prone — hand counts of all votes at each precinct to check if the total matches the machine count, although those changes face a legal challenge to their implementation.
在這些更精選的案例中,賓州大約有十分之 17 的幾率成為臨界點,其次是密西根州,大約是十分之 14,北卡羅來納州是十分之 13,喬治亞州是十分之 11。可能會永久損害您的角質層。試想一下,賓州的計票速度可能會很慢,因為選舉法禁止官員在選舉日上午 7 點前開始處理郵寄選票。在喬治亞州,州選舉委員會的共和黨人實施了規定,強制對每個選區的所有選票進行繁瑣且更慢、更容易出錯的手工清點,以檢查總數是否與機器計數相符,儘管這些變化面臨法律挑戰到他們的實施。
Regardless of the pace of the count, however, the campaigns and their allies well know how essential these states, especially Pennsylvania, are to winning in November. As of mid-September, Harris and pro-Harris groups had reserved about $76 million in ads in the Keystone State through Election Day, based on a recent analysis by AdImpact, compared with around $61 million by Trump and pro-Trump outfits. That combined total of nearly $137 million accounted for more than one-quarter of all ad bookings in the seven leading swing states, with (appropriately) Michigan the next-closest, with just shy of one-fifth (about $97 million combined). Pennsylvania has also hosted more presidential campaign events than any other state, per data from VoteHub, again followed by Michigan.
然而,無論計票速度如何,競選團隊及其盟友都清楚這些州,尤其是賓州,對於 11 月的勝利有多重要。根據AdImpact 最近的分析,截至9 月中旬,哈里斯和支持哈里斯的團體在選舉日之前在基斯通州預留了約7600 萬美元的廣告,而川普和支持川普的團體預留了約6100 萬美元。總金額接近 1.37 億美元,佔七個主要搖擺州所有廣告預訂的四分之一以上,(適當地)密西根州位居第二,略低於五分之一(總計約 9700 萬美元)。根據 VoteHub 的數據,賓州舉辦的總統競選活動也比其他州都多,其次是密西根州。
That Pennsylvania, Michigan, or another key swing state could prove singularly decisive has positioned 2024 to potentially join a rare group of elections whose outcome rested solely on the tipping-point state. That's been true of just seven of the 39 presidential elections
賓州、密西根州或另一個關鍵搖擺州可能具有非凡的決定性,這使得 2024 年有可能加入一組罕見的選舉,其結果完全取決於臨界點州。 39 次總統大選中只有 7 次是這樣的
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