预计比特币将激增：分析师预测减半事件后需求将激增 500%

Bitfinex 的分析师估计，最近的比特币减半将导致新币的每日供应量大幅减少，可能导致需求量是供应量的五倍。新 BTC 的日发行量预计将下降至 3000 万美元，而现货 ETF 的日均流入量目前超过 1.5 亿美元。这种供应紧张，加上矿商抛售的减少和投资者对其代币的托管增加，表明加密货币价格的看涨前景。

Bitcoin's Projected Supply-Demand Imbalance: Analysts Estimate 5-Fold Surge in Demand Post-Halving

比特币预计的供需失衡：分析师估计减半后需求将激增 5 倍

Bitfinex Analysts Forecast Dramatic Reduction in New Bitcoin Supply

Bitfinex 分析师预测新增比特币供应量将大幅减少

In a recent analysis, renowned cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex projected a significant decline in the daily supply of newly mined Bitcoin (BTC) following its recent halving event. According to their estimates, the daily issuance of new BTC could drop to approximately $30 million, a substantial decrease from the pre-halving average of around $60 million.

在最近的一项分析中，著名的加密货币交易所 Bitfinex 预计，在最近的减半事件之后，新开采的比特币 (BTC) 的每日供应量将大幅下降。根据他们的估计，新比特币的每日发行量可能会下降至约 3000 万美元，较减半前约 6000 万美元的平均水平大幅下降。

Halving Impact: Reduced Miner Rewards and Increased Issuance Scarcity

减半影响：矿工奖励减少，发行稀缺性增加

The Bitcoin halving, which occurred on April 15, 2024, halved the block reward paid to miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This reduction, coupled with an anticipated decrease in miner selling, is expected to lead to a marked decline in the daily issuance of new BTC.

2024 年 4 月 15 日发生的比特币减半将支付给矿工的区块奖励从 6.25 BTC 减半至 3.125 BTC。这种减少，再加上矿工抛售的预期减少，预计将导致新比特币的每日发行量显着下降。

ETF Demand Outpacing Supply

ETF 需求超过供应

Bitfinex analysts highlight the growing demand for Bitcoin evidenced by the substantial inflows into spot-based Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. The average daily inflows into these ETFs have exceeded $150 million, dwarfing the projected post-halving issuance rate.

Bitfinex 分析师强调，对比特币的需求不断增长，大量资金流入美国现货比特币 ETF 就证明了这一点。这些ETF的日均流入量已超过1.5亿美元，使减半后的预计发行率相形见绌。

Supply Squeeze Already Underway

供应紧缩已经开始

Data from Glassnode, a blockchain analytics firm, confirms that the supply squeeze has already begun. Since the halving, the daily issuance of new BTC has dropped to approximately 450 BTC, down from the pre-halving average of 900 BTC.

区块链分析公司 Glassnode 的数据证实，供应紧张已经开始。自减半以来，新增 BTC 的每日发行量已降至约 450 BTC，低于减半前的平均 900 BTC。

Reduced Miner Selling

矿工抛售减少

In the months leading up to the halving, miners actively sold their BTC holdings to fund equipment upgrades and ensure the sustainability of their operations. However, this trend is expected to slow down post-halving as miners have already depleted their inventory.

在减半前的几个月，矿商积极出售其持有的比特币，以资助设备升级并确保运营的可持续性。然而，由于矿商已经耗尽了库存，预计这一趋势将在减半后放缓。

Increased Direct Investor Custody

增加直接投资者托管

Bitfinex also notes a growing trend among investors to take direct custody of their BTC, further reducing the supply available on exchanges.

Bitfinex 还注意到，投资者直接托管 BTC 的趋势日益明显，这进一步减少了交易所的供应量。

Price Impact: Defying Pre-Halving Correction

价格影响：无视减半前的修正

Despite widespread expectations of a price correction post-halving, Bitcoin has instead exhibited a bullish trend, rising over 5% since the halving. This suggests that the market is absorbing the reduced supply and anticipates future price increases.

尽管人们普遍预期减半后价格会回调，但比特币却呈现出看涨趋势，自减半以来上涨了 5% 以上。这表明市场正在消化供应减少，并预计未来价格上涨。

Implications for Market Dynamics

对市场动态的影响

The projected supply-demand imbalance, with demand potentially exceeding supply by a factor of five, could have significant implications for the Bitcoin market. Reduced selling pressure from miners and increased investor demand could drive prices higher. However, it is important to note that these projections are based on current market conditions and may be subject to change.

预计供需失衡，需求可能超过供应五倍，可能会对比特币市场产生重大影响。矿商抛售压力的减轻和投资者需求的增加可能会推高价格。然而，值得注意的是，这些预测是基于当前的市场状况，可能会发生变化。

Conclusion

结论

Bitfinex's analysis suggests a significant shift in Bitcoin's supply dynamics post-halving. The reduced issuance and increased demand could lead to a supply squeeze and potentially drive prices higher. However, it remains to be seen how the market will evolve over time and whether the projections hold true.

Bitfinex 的分析表明，减半后比特币的供应动态发生了重大变化。发行量减少和需求增加可能导致供应紧张，并可能推高价格。然而，随着时间的推移，市场将如何演变以及预测是否属实还有待观察。