預計比特幣將激增：分析師預測減半事件後需求將激增 500%

Bitfinex 的分析師估計，最近的比特幣減半將導致新幣的每日供應量大幅減少，可能導致需求量是供應量的五倍。新 BTC 的日發行量預計將下降至 3,000 萬美元，而現貨 ETF 的日均流入量目前超過 1.5 億美元。這種供應緊張，加上礦商拋售的減少和投資者對其代幣的託管增加，顯示加密貨幣價格的看漲前景。

Bitcoin's Projected Supply-Demand Imbalance: Analysts Estimate 5-Fold Surge in Demand Post-Halving

比特幣預期的供需失衡：分析師估計減半後需求將激增 5 倍

Bitfinex Analysts Forecast Dramatic Reduction in New Bitcoin Supply

Bitfinex 分析師預測新增比特幣供應量將大幅減少

In a recent analysis, renowned cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex projected a significant decline in the daily supply of newly mined Bitcoin (BTC) following its recent halving event. According to their estimates, the daily issuance of new BTC could drop to approximately $30 million, a substantial decrease from the pre-halving average of around $60 million.

在最近的一項分析中，著名的加密貨幣交易所 Bitfinex 預計，在最近的減半事件之後，新開採的比特幣 (BTC) 的每日供應量將大幅下降。根據他們的估計，新比特幣的每日發行量可能會下降至約 3,000 萬美元，較減半前約 6,000 萬美元的平均水準大幅下降。

Halving Impact: Reduced Miner Rewards and Increased Issuance Scarcity

減半影響：礦工獎勵減少，發行稀缺性增加

The Bitcoin halving, which occurred on April 15, 2024, halved the block reward paid to miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This reduction, coupled with an anticipated decrease in miner selling, is expected to lead to a marked decline in the daily issuance of new BTC.

2024 年 4 月 15 日發生的比特幣減半將支付給礦工的區塊獎勵從 6.25 BTC 減半至 3.125 BTC。這種減少，再加上礦工拋售的預期減少，預計將導致新比特幣的每日發行量大幅下降。

ETF Demand Outpacing Supply

ETF 需求超過供應

Bitfinex analysts highlight the growing demand for Bitcoin evidenced by the substantial inflows into spot-based Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. The average daily inflows into these ETFs have exceeded $150 million, dwarfing the projected post-halving issuance rate.

Bitfinex 分析師強調，對比特幣的需求不斷增長，大量資金流入美國現貨比特幣 ETF 證明了這一點。這些ETF的日均流入量已超過1.5億美元，使減半後的預期發行率相形見絀。

Supply Squeeze Already Underway

供應緊縮已經開始

Data from Glassnode, a blockchain analytics firm, confirms that the supply squeeze has already begun. Since the halving, the daily issuance of new BTC has dropped to approximately 450 BTC, down from the pre-halving average of 900 BTC.

區塊鏈分析公司 Glassnode 的數據證實，供應緊張已經開始。自減半以來，新增 BTC 的每日發行量已降至約 450 BTC，低於減半前的平均 900 BTC。

Reduced Miner Selling

礦工拋售減少

In the months leading up to the halving, miners actively sold their BTC holdings to fund equipment upgrades and ensure the sustainability of their operations. However, this trend is expected to slow down post-halving as miners have already depleted their inventory.

在減半前的幾個月，礦商積極出售其持有的比特幣，以資助設備升級並確保營運的可持續性。然而，由於礦商已經耗盡了庫存，預計這一趨勢將在減半後放緩。

Increased Direct Investor Custody

增加直接投資者託管

Bitfinex also notes a growing trend among investors to take direct custody of their BTC, further reducing the supply available on exchanges.

Bitfinex 也注意到，投資者直接託管 BTC 的趨勢日益明顯，這進一步減少了交易所的供應量。

Price Impact: Defying Pre-Halving Correction

價格影響：無視減半前的修正

Despite widespread expectations of a price correction post-halving, Bitcoin has instead exhibited a bullish trend, rising over 5% since the halving. This suggests that the market is absorbing the reduced supply and anticipates future price increases.

儘管人們普遍預期減半後價格會回調，但比特幣卻呈現出看漲趨勢，自減半以來上漲了 5% 以上。這表明市場正在消化供應減少，並預計未來價格將上漲。

Implications for Market Dynamics

對市場動態的影響

The projected supply-demand imbalance, with demand potentially exceeding supply by a factor of five, could have significant implications for the Bitcoin market. Reduced selling pressure from miners and increased investor demand could drive prices higher. However, it is important to note that these projections are based on current market conditions and may be subject to change.

預期供需失衡，需求可能超過供應五倍，可能對比特幣市場產生重大影響。礦商拋售壓力的減輕和投資者需求的增加可能會推高價格。然而，值得注意的是，這些預測是基於當前的市場狀況，可能會發生變化。

Conclusion

結論

Bitfinex's analysis suggests a significant shift in Bitcoin's supply dynamics post-halving. The reduced issuance and increased demand could lead to a supply squeeze and potentially drive prices higher. However, it remains to be seen how the market will evolve over time and whether the projections hold true.

Bitfinex 的分析表明，減半後比特幣的供應動態發生了重大變化。發行量減少和需求增加可能導致供應緊張，並可能推高價格。然而，隨著時間的推移，市場將如何演變以及預測是否屬實還有待觀察。