预测市场预测 2025 年是加密货币充满希望的一年

Cointelegraph 回顾了 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 的预测市场，预测 2025 年是加密货币前景光明的一年。

Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, are indicating a promising outlook for cryptocurrencies in 2025. According to these platforms, traders anticipate record highs for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), along with a high likelihood of the United States approving several new crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Kalshi 和 Polymarket 等预测市场表明 2025 年加密货币前景光明。根据这些平台，交易员预计比特币 (BTC) 和以太币 (ETH) 价格将创历史新高，而且美国批准多项加密货币的可能性很高。新的加密货币交易所交易基金（ETF）并建立战略比特币储备。

Data from December 26 suggests that Kalshi users estimate a more than 60% chance for BTC and ETH to reach at least $125,000 and $5,000, respectively, by 2025. Polymarket traders predict a 50% probability for BTC to hit $120,000 by the end of March. For context, Bitcoin's current record high stands at roughly $108,300, while Ether's is around $4,720.

12 月 26 日的数据显示，Kalshi 用户估计，到 2025 年，BTC 和 ETH 的价格将分别达到至少 125,000 美元和 5,000 美元的可能性超过 60%。Polymarket 交易员预测 BTC 到 3 月底达到 120,000 美元的可能性为 50%。就背景而言，比特币当前的历史新高约为 108,300 美元，而以太币的价格约为 4,720 美元。

Traders on Polymarket also express optimism regarding regulatory approvals, predicting with a high probability that ETFs for XRP, Solana, and Litecoin will be approved by July 31. The odds are approximately 75%, 69%, and 51%, respectively, for these approvals. However, there is a lower, 22% probability for a Dogecoin ETF approval in the same time frame.

Polymarket 的交易员也对监管部门的批准表示乐观，他们预计 XRP、Solana 和 Litecoin 的 ETF 很有可能在 7 月 31 日之前获得批准。这些批准的几率分别约为 75%、69% 和 51% 。然而，狗狗币 ETF 在同一时间范围内获得批准的可能性较低，为 22%。

In terms of U.S. political developments, Kalshi users see a 59% likelihood of the future U.S. President Donald Trumpстіcreating a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, although Polymarket assigns only a 29% probability for this to occur within his first 100 days in office.

就美国政治发展而言，Kalshi 用户认为未来的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 有 59% 的可能性创建国家战略比特币储备，尽管 Polymarket 认为这种情况在他上任的头 100 天内发生的可能性只有 29%。

These prediction markets gained credibility during the build-up to the U.S. elections in November, with over $4 billion traded related to the presidential race. They accurately predicted not only Trump's election but also a sweep by his party in the House and Senate. Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts linked to specific events, with prices reacting dynamically to anticipated outcomes.

这些预测市场在 11 月份美国大选期间获得了可信度，与总统竞选相关的交易额超过 40 亿美元。他们不仅准确预测了特朗普的当选，还准确预测了他的政党在众议院和参议院的横扫。预测市场允许交易者买卖与特定事件相关的合约，价格对预期结果做出动态反应。

In contrast, more traditional futures markets, like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), predict more modest gains for cryptocurrencies by the first quarter of 2025. CME traders foresee BTC and ETH spot prices around $98,000 and $3,500, respectively, by March. This reflects increases from current prices of approximately $96,000 for BTC and $3,350 for ETH as of December 26, despite both cryptocurrencies experiencing a recent 4% drop.

相比之下，芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 等更传统的期货市场预计，到 2025 年第一季度，加密货币的涨幅将更为温和。CME 交易员预计，到 3 月份，BTC 和 ETH 现货价格将分别约为 98,000 美元和 3,500 美元。这反映出截至 12 月 26 日，BTC 和 ETH 的当前价格分别约为 96,000 美元和 3,350 美元，尽管这两种加密货币最近都下跌了 4%。

Futures are standardized agreements regarding the future buying or selling of an asset, which are commonly used for hedging strategies and speculative purposes.

期货是关于未来购买或出售资产的标准化协议，通常用于对冲策略和投机目的。