Prediction Markets Forecast a Promising Year for Cryptocurrencies in 2025

Cointelegraph has reviewed prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, which forecast a promising year for cryptocurrencies in 2025.

Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, are indicating a promising outlook for cryptocurrencies in 2025. According to these platforms, traders anticipate record highs for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), along with a high likelihood of the United States approving several new crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Data from December 26 suggests that Kalshi users estimate a more than 60% chance for BTC and ETH to reach at least $125,000 and $5,000, respectively, by 2025. Polymarket traders predict a 50% probability for BTC to hit $120,000 by the end of March. For context, Bitcoin's current record high stands at roughly $108,300, while Ether's is around $4,720.

Traders on Polymarket also express optimism regarding regulatory approvals, predicting with a high probability that ETFs for XRP, Solana, and Litecoin will be approved by July 31. The odds are approximately 75%, 69%, and 51%, respectively, for these approvals. However, there is a lower, 22% probability for a Dogecoin ETF approval in the same time frame.

In terms of U.S. political developments, Kalshi users see a 59% likelihood of the future U.S. President Donald Trumpстіcreating a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, although Polymarket assigns only a 29% probability for this to occur within his first 100 days in office.

These prediction markets gained credibility during the build-up to the U.S. elections in November, with over $4 billion traded related to the presidential race. They accurately predicted not only Trump's election but also a sweep by his party in the House and Senate. Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts linked to specific events, with prices reacting dynamically to anticipated outcomes.

In contrast, more traditional futures markets, like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), predict more modest gains for cryptocurrencies by the first quarter of 2025. CME traders foresee BTC and ETH spot prices around $98,000 and $3,500, respectively, by March. This reflects increases from current prices of approximately $96,000 for BTC and $3,350 for ETH as of December 26, despite both cryptocurrencies experiencing a recent 4% drop.

Futures are standardized agreements regarding the future buying or selling of an asset, which are commonly used for hedging strategies and speculative purposes.