預測市場預測 2025 年是加密貨幣充滿希望的一年

Cointelegraph 回顧了 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 的預測市場，預測 2025 年是加密貨幣前景光明的一年。

Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, are indicating a promising outlook for cryptocurrencies in 2025. According to these platforms, traders anticipate record highs for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), along with a high likelihood of the United States approving several new crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Kalshi 和Polymarket 等預測市場顯示2025 年加密貨幣前景光明。 。

Data from December 26 suggests that Kalshi users estimate a more than 60% chance for BTC and ETH to reach at least $125,000 and $5,000, respectively, by 2025. Polymarket traders predict a 50% probability for BTC to hit $120,000 by the end of March. For context, Bitcoin's current record high stands at roughly $108,300, while Ether's is around $4,720.

12 月26 日的數據顯示，Kalshi 用戶估計BTC 和ETH 到2025 年有超過60% 的可能性分別達到至少125,000 美元和5,000 美元。 。就背景而言，比特幣目前的歷史新高約為 108,300 美元，而以太幣的價格約為 4,720 美元。

Traders on Polymarket also express optimism regarding regulatory approvals, predicting with a high probability that ETFs for XRP, Solana, and Litecoin will be approved by July 31. The odds are approximately 75%, 69%, and 51%, respectively, for these approvals. However, there is a lower, 22% probability for a Dogecoin ETF approval in the same time frame.

Polymarket 的交易員也對監管部門的批准表示樂觀，他們預計 XRP、Solana 和 Litecoin 的 ETF 很有可能在 7 月 31 日之前獲得批准。然而，狗狗幣 ETF 在同一時間範圍內獲得批准的可能性較低，為 22%。

In terms of U.S. political developments, Kalshi users see a 59% likelihood of the future U.S. President Donald Trumpстіcreating a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, although Polymarket assigns only a 29% probability for this to occur within his first 100 days in office.

就美國政治發展而言，Kalshi 用戶認為未來的美國總統唐納德·川普(Donald Trump) 有59% 的可能性創建國家戰略比特幣儲備，儘管Polymarket 認為這種情況在他上任的頭100 天內發生的可能性只有29%。

These prediction markets gained credibility during the build-up to the U.S. elections in November, with over $4 billion traded related to the presidential race. They accurately predicted not only Trump's election but also a sweep by his party in the House and Senate. Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts linked to specific events, with prices reacting dynamically to anticipated outcomes.

這些預測市場在 11 月美國大選前夕獲得了可信度，與總統競選相關的交易額超過 40 億美元。他們不僅準確預測了川普的當選，還準確預測了他的政黨在眾議院和參議院的橫掃。預測市場允許交易者買賣與特定事件相關的合約，價格對預期結果做出動態反應。

In contrast, more traditional futures markets, like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), predict more modest gains for cryptocurrencies by the first quarter of 2025. CME traders foresee BTC and ETH spot prices around $98,000 and $3,500, respectively, by March. This reflects increases from current prices of approximately $96,000 for BTC and $3,350 for ETH as of December 26, despite both cryptocurrencies experiencing a recent 4% drop.

相較之下，芝加哥商品交易所(CME) 等較傳統的期貨市場預計，到2025 年第一季度，加密貨幣的漲幅將更為溫和。將分別約為98,000 美元和3,500 美元。這反映出截至 12 月 26 日，BTC 和 ETH 的當前價格分別約為 96,000 美元和 3,350 美元，儘管這兩種加密貨幣最近都下跌了 4%。

Futures are standardized agreements regarding the future buying or selling of an asset, which are commonly used for hedging strategies and speculative purposes.

期貨是關於未來購買或出售資產的標準化協議，通常用於對沖策略和投機目的。