预测市场 Kalshi 推出更多美国政治事件投注市场

这些合同涵盖的结果包括当选总统唐纳德·特朗普将如何为他的政府配备人员以及他在总统任期内是否会被弹劾。

Prediction marketplace Kalshi has rolled out more markets for betting on United States political events in a bid to keep engagement high after the Nov. 5 presidential election.

预测市场 Kalshi 推出了更多美国政治事件投注市场，以期在 11 月 5 日总统大选后保持较高的参与度。

The contracts cover outcomes ranging from how President-elect Donald Trump will staff his administration to whether he will be impeached during his presidency, according to regulatory filings with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

根据向美国商品期货交易委员会提交的监管文件，这些合同涵盖的结果包括当选总统唐纳德·特朗普将如何为其政府配备人员，以及他在总统任期内是否会被弹劾。

Bettors flocked to political prediction platforms ahead of the US elections, with betting volumes tied to the presidential race nearing $4 billion as of election day on Nov. 5, according to a Cointelegraph analysis.

根据 Cointelegraph 的分析，在美国大选前，投注者纷纷涌向政治预测平台，截至 11 月 5 日选举日，与总统竞选相关的投注额接近 40 亿美元。

Kalshi betting markets. Source: CFTC

卡尔希投注市场.资料来源：商品期货交易委员会

Related: US presidential race bets near $4B on election day

相关：选举日美国总统竞选投注接近 4B 美元

Web3-native Polymarket was the venue of choice for bettors, garnering $3.3 billion in presidential betting volume, according to Polymarket’s website.

据 Polymarket 网站称，Web3 原生 Polymarket 是投注者的首选场所，总统投注额达 33 亿美元。

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But Kalshi, a US-based derivatives exchange, quickly gained traction after launching political event contracts on Oct. 7 following a landmark court win.

但总部位于美国的衍生品交易所 Kalshi 在取得具有里程碑意义的法庭胜利后于 10 月 7 日推出政治事件合约后迅速受到关注。

Its flagship market for betting on the US presidential election surpassed $250 million in trading volume as of Nov. 5.

截至 11 月 5 日，其美国总统大选投注旗舰市场的交易量超过 2.5 亿美元。

On Oct. 28, Kalshi started taking deposits in USD Coin (USDC) , a popular stablecoin, in a bid to woo crypto-native users.

10 月 28 日，Kalshi 开始接受美元硬币 (USDC)（一种流行的稳定币）存款，以吸引加密货币原生用户。

The prediction marketplace has also added contracts for betting on outcomes of elections outside of the US. They include bets on 2025 races in Canada and Ireland, CFTC filings showed.

预测市场还增加了对美国境外选举结果进行投注的合同。 CFTC 文件显示，其中包括对 2025 年加拿大和爱尔兰比赛的投注。

Source: Tarek Mansour

资料来源：塔里克·曼苏尔

In September, Kalshi prevailed against the CFTC in a lawsuit challenging the regulator’s decision to bar Kalshi from listing political event contracts.

9 月，Kalshi 在一场诉讼中胜诉 CFTC，该诉讼质疑监管机构禁止 Kalshi 列出政治事件合约的决定。

It marked the first time an election prediction market was permitted to operate in the US and paved the way for rival platforms to enter the fray.

这标志着选举预测市场首次获准在美国运营，并为竞争对手平台加入竞争铺平了道路。

On Oct. 28, cryptocurrency and stock trading platform Robinhood introduced contracts for certain users to bet on the outcome of the presidential election.

10 月 28 日，加密货币和股票交易平台 Robinhood 推出了供某些用户押注总统选举结果的合约。

Interactive Brokers also launched election betting markets in October.

盈透证券还在十月份推出了选举博彩市场。

The CFTC said the district court judge overseeing Kalshi’s lawsuit “erred at every turn” when it allowed the platform to list and trade election odds.

美国商品期货交易委员会表示，负责监督卡尔希诉讼的地区法院法官在允许该平台列出和交易选举赔率时“处处犯了错误”。

The agency said prediction markets such as Kalshi threaten the integrity of elections, but industry analysts say they often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls.

该机构表示，卡尔希等预测市场威胁到选举的公正性，但行业分析师表示，它们往往比民意调查更准确地捕捉公众情绪。

Political betting platforms, including Kalshi, consistently ascribed favorable odds to a Trump win.

包括卡尔希在内的政治博彩平台一直认为特朗普获胜的赔率较高。

On Kalshi, Trump’s odds of winning hovered around 58% on Nov. 5 before polls closed. Harris conceded the presidency to Trump on Nov. 6.

在卡尔希，11 月 5 日投票结束前，特朗普获胜的几率徘徊在 58% 左右。 11 月 6 日，哈里斯将总统职位让给了特朗普。

Magazine: Saylor falls for fake Trump news, Kraken restructures, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 27–Nov. 2

杂志：塞勒陷入特朗普假新闻、Kraken 重组等：霍德勒文摘，10 月 27 日至 11 月 11 日2

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