預測市場 Kalshi 推出更多美國政治事件投注市場

這些合約涵蓋的結果包括當選總統唐納德·川普將如何為他的政府配備人員以及他在總統任期內是否會被彈劾。

Prediction marketplace Kalshi has rolled out more markets for betting on United States political events in a bid to keep engagement high after the Nov. 5 presidential election.

預測市場 Kalshi 推出了更多美國政治事件投注市場，以期在 11 月 5 日總統大選後保持較高的參與度。

The contracts cover outcomes ranging from how President-elect Donald Trump will staff his administration to whether he will be impeached during his presidency, according to regulatory filings with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

根據向美國商品期貨交易委員會提交的監管文件，這些合約涵蓋的結果包括當選總統唐納德·川普將如何為其政府配備人員，以及他在總統任期內是否會被彈劾。

Bettors flocked to political prediction platforms ahead of the US elections, with betting volumes tied to the presidential race nearing $4 billion as of election day on Nov. 5, according to a Cointelegraph analysis.

根據 Cointelegraph 的分析，在美國大選前，投注者紛紛湧向政治預測平台，截至 11 月 5 日選舉日，與總統競選相關的投注額接近 40 億美元。

Kalshi betting markets. Source: CFTC

卡爾希投注市場.資料來源：商品期貨交易委員會

Related: US presidential race bets near $4B on election day

相關：選舉日美國總統競選投注接近 4B 美元

Web3-native Polymarket was the venue of choice for bettors, garnering $3.3 billion in presidential betting volume, according to Polymarket’s website.

據 Polymarket 網站稱，Web3 原生 Polymarket 是投注者的首選場所，總統投注額達 33 億美元。

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But Kalshi, a US-based derivatives exchange, quickly gained traction after launching political event contracts on Oct. 7 following a landmark court win.

但總部位於美國的衍生性商品交易所 Kalshi 在取得具有里程碑意義的法庭勝利後於 10 月 7 日推出政治事件合約後迅速受到關注。

Its flagship market for betting on the US presidential election surpassed $250 million in trading volume as of Nov. 5.

截至 11 月 5 日，其美國總統大選投注旗艦市場的交易量超過 2.5 億美元。

On Oct. 28, Kalshi started taking deposits in USD Coin (USDC) , a popular stablecoin, in a bid to woo crypto-native users.

10 月 28 日，Kalshi 開始接受美元硬幣 (USDC)（一種流行的穩定幣）存款，以吸引加密貨幣原生用戶。

The prediction marketplace has also added contracts for betting on outcomes of elections outside of the US. They include bets on 2025 races in Canada and Ireland, CFTC filings showed.

預測市場也增加了對美國境外選舉結果投注的合約。 CFTC 文件顯示，其中包括對 2025 年加拿大和愛爾蘭比賽的投注。

Source: Tarek Mansour

資料來源：塔里克·曼蘇爾

In September, Kalshi prevailed against the CFTC in a lawsuit challenging the regulator’s decision to bar Kalshi from listing political event contracts.

9 月，Kalshi 在一場訴訟中勝訴 CFTC，該訴訟質疑監管機構禁止 Kalshi 列出政治事件合約的決定。

It marked the first time an election prediction market was permitted to operate in the US and paved the way for rival platforms to enter the fray.

這標誌著選舉預測市場首次獲准在美國運營，並為競爭對手平台加入競爭鋪平了道路。

On Oct. 28, cryptocurrency and stock trading platform Robinhood introduced contracts for certain users to bet on the outcome of the presidential election.

10 月 28 日，加密貨幣和股票交易平台 Robinhood 推出了供某些用戶押注總統選舉結果的合約。

Interactive Brokers also launched election betting markets in October.

盈透證券也在十月推出了選舉博彩市場。

The CFTC said the district court judge overseeing Kalshi’s lawsuit “erred at every turn” when it allowed the platform to list and trade election odds.

美國商品期貨交易委員會表示，負責監督卡爾希訴訟的地區法院法官在允許該平台列出和交易選舉賠率時「處處犯了錯誤」。

The agency said prediction markets such as Kalshi threaten the integrity of elections, but industry analysts say they often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls.

該機構表示，卡爾希等預測市場威脅到選舉的公正性，但產業分析師表示，它們往往比民調更準確地捕捉公眾情緒。

Political betting platforms, including Kalshi, consistently ascribed favorable odds to a Trump win.

包括卡爾希在內的政治博彩平台一直認為川普獲勝的賠率較高。

On Kalshi, Trump’s odds of winning hovered around 58% on Nov. 5 before polls closed. Harris conceded the presidency to Trump on Nov. 6.

在卡爾希，11 月 5 日投票結束前，川普獲勝的幾率徘徊在 58% 左右。 11 月 6 日，哈里斯將總統職位讓給了川普。

Magazine: Saylor falls for fake Trump news, Kraken restructures, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 27–Nov. 2

雜誌：塞勒陷入川普假新聞、Kraken 重組等：霍德勒文摘，10 月 27 日至 11 月 11 日2

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