Polymarket更好地相信我们美联储将在5月之前结束定量收紧计划（QT）计划

Polymarket的更好的人认为，现在可以肯定的是，美国美联储将在今年5月之前降低其定量收紧（QT）计划

According to betting odds on Polymarket, there’s a 100% probability that the US Federal Reserve will stop its quantitative tightening (QT) program by April 30, 2024.

根据对Polymarket的赌注赔率，美国美联储将在2024年4月30日之前停止其定量收紧计划（QT）计划100％。

The wager, titled “Will Fed end QT before May?,” has more than $6.2 million in cumulative trading volume. By March 14, it had attracted 1,638 unique betters.

赌注的标题为“将在5月之前终结QT？”，累计交易量超过620万美元。到3月14日，它吸引了1,638个独特的好处。

Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market that lets users wager on real-world events. It rose to prominence during the 2024 US presidential election cycle, where it accurately predicted the ascent of Donald Trump.

Polymarket是一个基于加密货币的预测市场，使用户可以在现实世界中投入下注。在2024年美国总统选举周期中，它的出色表现得以准确地预测唐纳德·特朗普的上升。

Polymarket users have assigned a 100% probability that the Fed will end quantitative tightening in the coming months. Source: Polymarket

Polymarket用户分配了100％的概率，即美联储在未来几个月内结束定量收紧。资料来源：Polymarket

Quantitative tightening is a monetary policy tool used by the Fed to draw money out of the economy by letting the bonds on its balance sheet mature. It’s the opposite of quantitative easing or the balance sheet expansion that the central bank embarked on following the 2008 financial crisis.

定量收紧是美联储用来使资产负债表上的债券成熟的债券用来从经济中抽出货币的货币政策工具。这是量化宽松或中央银行在2008年金融危机之后开始的资产负债表扩展的对立面。

The Fed’s current QT regime has been ongoing since June 2022 as a complement to other inflation-reducing policies. In addition to raising short-term interest rates, the Fed uses QT to raise long-term rates and drain excess liquidity from the market.

自2022年6月以来，美联储目前的QT政权一直在进行，作为对其他减少通货膨胀政策的补充。除了提高短期利率外，美联储还利用QT提高长期利率并消耗市场流动性。

Although the start of QT didn’t prevent stocks and crypto prices from rallying — these markets are coming off back-to-back years of impressive growth — it has become a bottleneck due to the recent macroeconomic shocks stemming from the Trump administration.

尽管QT的开始并不能阻止股票和加密价格集会 - 这些市场正在背靠背的增长后期增长 - 由于最近来自特朗普政府引起的宏观经济冲击，它已成为瓶颈。

This was predicted in 2022 by Cambridge Associates senior investment director TJ Scavone, who said the negative side effects of QT would be felt once “something breaks”:

剑桥大学高级投资总监TJ Scavone在2022年预测这一点，他说，一旦“某些事情破裂”，就会感觉到QT的负面影响：

“The question isn’t whether the Fed can pivot quickly. The question is what will break first to force the Fed’s hand.”

“问题不是美联储是否可以迅速转移。问题是什么将首先突然迫使美联储的手。”

QT and crypto

QT和加密

Crypto’s strong correlation with traditional markets exposed the asset class to extreme volatility in February. By March, the S&P 500 Index was officially in correction territory — and Bitcoin (BTC) was down roughly 30% from its January peak.

加密与传统市场的密切相关性在2月将资产类别暴露于极端波动。到3月，标准普尔500指数已正式在更正领域中 - 比特币（BTC）比1月份的峰值下降了约30％。

The growing belief that the Fed is ready to wind down QT is seen by many as a bullish catalyst for crypto, as more liquidity will eventually trickle down into risk assets. Combined with rate cuts in the second half of the year, there may be enough policy drivers to reverse the crypto market’s multimonth downtrend.

越来越多的信念，即美联储准备降低QT，这被许多人视为代表加密的看涨催化剂，因为更多的流动性最终会滴入风险资产中。结合下半年的降低速度，可能有足够的政策驱动因素扭转加密货币市场的多个月下降趋势。

This general playbook is supported by crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, who believes the end of QT will be followed by a broad market rally.

该通用剧本得到了加密分析师本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）的支持，他认为QT的结束将得到广泛的市场集会。

According to the minutes of the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting, some officials were concerned about balance sheet reductions impacting the government’s debt ceiling debate.

根据一月份联邦公开市场委员会会议的纪要，一些官员担心减少资产负债表，影响政府的债务上限辩论。

The persistence of inflation above the Fed’s 2% target was also a concern among officials. However, the lack of substantial employment weakness despite the central bank’s seven consecutive rate hikes was viewed positively.

在美联储2％的目标之上，通货膨胀的持续存在也是官员的关注点。但是，尽管中央银行连续七次加息，但缺乏实质性就业弱点。

According to the summary of economic projections, officials anticipate the U.S. economy to grow by 0.5% in 2024 and maintain an unemployment rate of 4.6% by the end of the year.

根据经济预测摘要，官员们预计，2024年，美国经济将增长0.5％，并在今年年底之前保持失业率为4.6％。

During the last two crypto market cycles, Bitcoin’s peak coincided with the top of the business cycle, as expressed by the manufacturing PMI.

在过去两个加密市场周期中，比特币的峰值与制造业PMI表示的商业周期的顶部相吻合。

As of March, the U.S. Manufacturing PMI has been in expansion mode for two consecutive months, marking a turning point after more than two years of contraction.

截至3月，美国制造PMI连续两个月一直处于扩展模式，这标志着两年多的收缩后的转折点。

This shift in the PMI trend is usually a lagging indicator, suggesting that the downturn in the business cycle may have already bottomed out.

PMI趋势的这种转变通常是一个滞后指标，这表明商业周期的低迷可能已经触底了。

After a period of turbulence in February, cryptocurrency prices have remained relatively stable in March.

经过一段时间2月的动荡，三月的加密货币价格保持相对稳定。

If the manufacturing PMI continues to rise in the coming months, it could potentially coincide with a new bull market high for Bitcoin, which aligns with the historical pattern observed during previous cycles.

如果制造PMI在未来几个月内继续增加，它可能与比特币的新牛市高度相吻合，该市场与以前的周期中观察到的历史模式相吻合。

If the PMI remains in expansionary territory for two consecutive quarters, it would technically indicate that the U.S. economy has entered a recession. However, if the PMI rebounds quickly from the downturn, it could indicate that the recession was mild and short-lived.

如果PMI连续两个季度仍在扩展领域，这将在技术上表明美国经济已经进入了经济衰退。但是，如果PMI从经济低迷中迅速反弹，则可能表明经济衰退是温和而短暂的。

Moreover, if the Fed pivots its monetary policy stance by cutting interest rates later this year, it could further support a recovery in crypto prices.

此外，如果美联储今年晚些时候降低利率通过降低利率，它可以进一步支持加密价格的回收率。

Overall, the current economic indicators and policy trends suggest that the worst of the macroeconomic downturn may be behind and a recovery is on the horizon.

总体而言，当前的经济指标和政策趋势表明，宏观经济低迷的最差可能落后，并且正在恢复。

This analysis suggests that the crypto market could experience a rebound in the second half of 2024, which aligns with the common prediction among crypto analysts.

该分析表明，加密货币市场可能会在2024年下半年经历反弹，这与加密分析师之间的共同预测一致。

However, it’s important to note that there are still uncertainties regarding the timing and magnitude of the Fed’s policy pivots, which could influence the market’s recovery trajectory.

但是，重要的是要注意，关于美联储政策枢纽的时机和幅度仍然存在不确定性，这可能会影响市场的恢复轨迹。

According to a recent report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by

根据美国劳工统计局的最新报告，消费者价格指数（CPI）上升