Polymarket更好地相信我們美聯儲將在5月之前結束定量收緊計劃（QT）計劃

Polymarket的更好的人認為，現在可以肯定的是，美國美聯儲將在今年5月之前降低其定量收緊（QT）計劃

According to betting odds on Polymarket, there’s a 100% probability that the US Federal Reserve will stop its quantitative tightening (QT) program by April 30, 2024.

根據對Polymarket的賭注賠率，美國美聯儲將在2024年4月30日之前停止其定量收緊計劃（QT）計劃100％。

The wager, titled “Will Fed end QT before May?,” has more than $6.2 million in cumulative trading volume. By March 14, it had attracted 1,638 unique betters.

賭注的標題為“將在5月之前終結QT？”，累計交易量超過620萬美元。到3月14日，它吸引了1,638個獨特的好處。

Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market that lets users wager on real-world events. It rose to prominence during the 2024 US presidential election cycle, where it accurately predicted the ascent of Donald Trump.

Polymarket是一個基於加密貨幣的預測市場，使用戶可以在現實世界中投入下注。在2024年美國總統選舉週期中，它的出色表現得以準確地預測唐納德·特朗普的上升。

Polymarket users have assigned a 100% probability that the Fed will end quantitative tightening in the coming months. Source: Polymarket

Polmoarket用戶分配了100％的概率，即美聯儲在未來幾個月內結束定量收緊。資料來源：Polymarket

Quantitative tightening is a monetary policy tool used by the Fed to draw money out of the economy by letting the bonds on its balance sheet mature. It’s the opposite of quantitative easing or the balance sheet expansion that the central bank embarked on following the 2008 financial crisis.

定量收緊是美聯儲用來使資產負債表上的債券成熟的債券用來從經濟中抽出貨幣的貨幣政策工具。這是量化寬鬆或中央銀行在2008年金融危機之後開始的資產負債表擴展的對立面。

The Fed’s current QT regime has been ongoing since June 2022 as a complement to other inflation-reducing policies. In addition to raising short-term interest rates, the Fed uses QT to raise long-term rates and drain excess liquidity from the market.

自2022年6月以來，美聯儲目前的QT政權一直在進行，作為對其他減少通貨膨脹政策的補充。除了提高短期利率外，美聯儲還利用QT提高長期利率並消耗市場流動性。

Although the start of QT didn’t prevent stocks and crypto prices from rallying — these markets are coming off back-to-back years of impressive growth — it has become a bottleneck due to the recent macroeconomic shocks stemming from the Trump administration.

儘管QT的開始並不能阻止股票和加密價格集會 - 這些市場正在背靠背的增長後期增長 - 由於最近來自特朗普政府引起的宏觀經濟衝擊，它已成為瓶頸。

This was predicted in 2022 by Cambridge Associates senior investment director TJ Scavone, who said the negative side effects of QT would be felt once “something breaks”:

劍橋大學高級投資總監TJ Scavone在2022年預測這一點，他說，一旦“某些事情破裂”，就會感覺到QT的負面影響：

“The question isn’t whether the Fed can pivot quickly. The question is what will break first to force the Fed’s hand.”

“問題不是美聯儲是否可以迅速轉移。問題是什麼將首先突然迫使美聯儲的手。”

QT and crypto

QT和加密

Crypto’s strong correlation with traditional markets exposed the asset class to extreme volatility in February. By March, the S&P 500 Index was officially in correction territory — and Bitcoin (BTC) was down roughly 30% from its January peak.

加密與傳統市場的密切相關性在2月將資產類別暴露於極端波動。到3月，標準普爾500指數已正式在更正領域中 - 比特幣（BTC）比1月份的峰值下降了約30％。

The growing belief that the Fed is ready to wind down QT is seen by many as a bullish catalyst for crypto, as more liquidity will eventually trickle down into risk assets. Combined with rate cuts in the second half of the year, there may be enough policy drivers to reverse the crypto market’s multimonth downtrend.

越來越多的信念，即美聯儲準備降低QT，這被許多人視為代表加密的看漲催化劑，因為更多的流動性最終會滴入風險資產中。結合下半年的降低速度，可能有足夠的政策驅動因素扭轉加密貨幣市場的多個月下降趨勢。

This general playbook is supported by crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, who believes the end of QT will be followed by a broad market rally.

該通用劇本得到了加密分析師本傑明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）的支持，他認為QT的結束將得到廣泛的市場集會。

According to the minutes of the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting, some officials were concerned about balance sheet reductions impacting the government’s debt ceiling debate.

根據一月份聯邦公開市場委員會會議的紀要，一些官員擔心減少資產負債表，影響政府的債務上限辯論。

The persistence of inflation above the Fed’s 2% target was also a concern among officials. However, the lack of substantial employment weakness despite the central bank’s seven consecutive rate hikes was viewed positively.

在美聯儲2％的目標之上，通貨膨脹的持續存在也是官員的關注點。但是，儘管中央銀行連續七次加息，但缺乏實質性就業弱點。

According to the summary of economic projections, officials anticipate the U.S. economy to grow by 0.5% in 2024 and maintain an unemployment rate of 4.6% by the end of the year.

根據經濟預測摘要，官員們預計，2024年，美國經濟將增長0.5％，並在今年年底之前保持失業率為4.6％。

During the last two crypto market cycles, Bitcoin’s peak coincided with the top of the business cycle, as expressed by the manufacturing PMI.

在過去兩個加密市場週期中，比特幣的峰值與製造業PMI表示的商業周期的頂部相吻合。

As of March, the U.S. Manufacturing PMI has been in expansion mode for two consecutive months, marking a turning point after more than two years of contraction.

截至3月，美國製造PMI連續兩個月一直處於擴展模式，這標誌著兩年多的收縮後的轉折點。

This shift in the PMI trend is usually a lagging indicator, suggesting that the downturn in the business cycle may have already bottomed out.

PMI趨勢的這種轉變通常是一個滯後指標，這表明商業周期的低迷可能已經觸底了。

After a period of turbulence in February, cryptocurrency prices have remained relatively stable in March.

經過一段時間2月的動盪，三月的加密貨幣價格保持相對穩定。

If the manufacturing PMI continues to rise in the coming months, it could potentially coincide with a new bull market high for Bitcoin, which aligns with the historical pattern observed during previous cycles.

如果製造PMI在未來幾個月內繼續增加，它可能與比特幣的新牛市高度相吻合，該市場與以前的周期中觀察到的歷史模式相吻合。

If the PMI remains in expansionary territory for two consecutive quarters, it would technically indicate that the U.S. economy has entered a recession. However, if the PMI rebounds quickly from the downturn, it could indicate that the recession was mild and short-lived.

如果PMI連續兩個季度仍在擴展領域，這將在技術上表明美國經濟已經進入了經濟衰退。但是，如果PMI從經濟低迷中迅速反彈，則可能表明經濟衰退是溫和而短暫的。

Moreover, if the Fed pivots its monetary policy stance by cutting interest rates later this year, it could further support a recovery in crypto prices.

此外，如果美聯儲今年晚些時候降低利率通過降低利率，它可以進一步支持加密價格的回收率。

Overall, the current economic indicators and policy trends suggest that the worst of the macroeconomic downturn may be behind and a recovery is on the horizon.

總體而言，當前的經濟指標和政策趨勢表明，宏觀經濟低迷的最差可能落後，並且正在恢復。

This analysis suggests that the crypto market could experience a rebound in the second half of 2024, which aligns with the common prediction among crypto analysts.

該分析表明，加密貨幣市場可能會在2024年下半年經歷反彈，這與加密分析師之間的共同預測一致。

However, it’s important to note that there are still uncertainties regarding the timing and magnitude of the Fed’s policy pivots, which could influence the market’s recovery trajectory.

但是，重要的是要注意，關於美聯儲政策樞紐的時機和幅度仍然存在不確定性，這可能會影響市場的恢復軌跡。

According to a recent report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by

根據美國勞工統計局的最新報告，消費者價格指數（CPI）上升