Paxg Gold Stablecoin（$ paxg）本周的兴趣最高

Pax Gold（$ PAXG）是由Paxos发行的实物黄金支持的稳定币。在全球贸易战引起的不确定性的加剧之中，投资者转向Paxg代币

This week's report:

本周的报告：

Top Interest of the Week

本周的最高兴趣

PAXG is a stablecoin backed by physical gold, issued by Paxos. As global trade war uncertainty heightened, investors turned to PAXG tokens to gain exposure to gold. Despite a downturn in the broader cryptocurrency market due to increased risks, PAXG reached a new all-time high of $3,195 on exchanges, while the PAXG/BTC trading pair also hit a four-month peak.

Paxg是由Paxos发行的实物黄金支持的稳定币。随着全球贸易战不确定性的提高，投资者转向Paxg代币，以获取黄金。尽管由于风险增加而导致更广泛的加密货币市场下滑，但Paxg在交易所的新历史最高高点上达到了3,195美元，而PAXG/BTC交易对也达到了四个月的高峰。

First Digital USD (FDUSD), a USD-pegged stablecoin issued by First Digital Trust, encountered negative sentiment when Justin Sun, the founder of Tron, alleged that the issuer was effectively insolvent and unable to return funds to customers. Following Sun's initial post on X, the price of $FDUSD plummeted to $0.8726 USDT. However, it gradually recovered to 0.99 USDT after the issuer addressed the allegations. Both parties held press conferences, which helped restore market confidence, leading to $FDUSD trading around the 0.9950 USDT mark.

First Digital USD（FDUSD）是由First Digital Trust发行的USD PEGGGEGGEGGECOIN，当时Tron的创始人Justin Sun声称发行人有效地破产并且无法将资金退还给客户时，遇到了负面情绪。在Sun在X上发表了最初的帖子之后，FDUSD的价格下降到$ 0.8726 USDT。但是，在发行人谈到指控后，它逐渐收回到0.99 USDT。双方举行了新闻发布会，这有助于恢复市场信心，从而导致$ fdusd的交易约为0.9950美元。

Overall Market

总体市场

The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at the log scale.

上图是日志量表每日蜡烛图中的BTC价格。

Our analysis from the previous week suggested that Bitcoin's price is expected to fluctuate between $80,000 and $90,000. We also raised concerns regarding the impending reciprocal tariffs introduced by President Trump.

我们上周的分析表明，比特币的价格预计将波动80,000至90,000美元。我们还对特朗普总统提出的即将到来的相互关税提出了担忧。

Last Friday, the core PCE price index exceeded expectations, leading to market concerns about the Federal Reserve's strategy for interest rate cuts in 2025. With persistent inflation in the US and the potential effects of tariffs on prices, the market has reduced the probability of a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve this year.

上周五，核心PCE价格指数超出了预期，导致市场对美联储在2025年降低利率降低战略的关注。随着美国的持续通货膨胀以及关税对价格的潜在影响，市场降低了今年联邦储备从联邦储备中迈出更容易适应性的货币政策的可能性。

While tariffs may also affect consumer spending and indirectly decrease demand for goods and services, potentially leading to a reduction in inflation, the numerous variables involved make it difficult to ascertain the extent of their negative impact on inflation.

虽然关税也可能影响消费者的支出，并间接减少对商品和服务的需求，这可能导致通货膨胀率降低，但涉及的众多变量使得难以确定其对通货膨胀的负面影响的程度。

On Wednesday afternoon, Bitcoin ($BTC) experienced a remarkable surge, surpassing the $89,000 mark following President Trump's announcement that universal tariffs would be set at 10% instead of the previously proposed 20%. However, this upward momentum was short-lived as the market quickly reversed direction after additional information regarding reciprocal tariffs came to light. Following the press conference, BTC experienced a sharp decline, dropping below $83,000, which coincided with a more than 2% decrease in the S&P 500 index after market close.

周三下午，比特币（$ BTC）经历了惊人的激增，在特朗普总统宣布将普遍关税设定为10％而不是先前提议的20％之后，比特币超过了89,000美元。但是，这种向上的势头是短暂的，因为在揭露了有关相互关税的其他信息之后，市场迅速扭转了方向。新闻发布会后，BTC的下降急剧下降，低于83,000美元，这与市场关闭后的标准普尔500指数下降了2％以上。

Our analysis suggests that the market's initial reaction to the decline in risk assets was expected. We anticipate that this downward trend will continue for an extended period as other countries develop their responses to the tariffs imposed by the United States.

我们的分析表明，市场对风险资产下降的最初反应预计。我们预计，随着其他国家对美国征收的关税的反应，这种下降趋势将持续很长时间。

Historically, the United States has employed tariffs to shield domestic industries from foreign competition, a strategy prominently utilized during the early years of the Great Depression. A defining example is the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which dramatically increased tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods. Signed into law by President Herbert Hoover, this legislation aimed to protect American farmers and manufacturers struggling amid the economic downturn that began with the stock market crash of 1929. However, the policy backfired spectacularly. Rather than bolstering the U.S. economy, it provoked swift retaliation from 25 trading partners, including Canada and several European nations, who imposed their own tariffs on American goods. This tit-for-tat escalation triggered a severe contraction in international trade, with global trade plummeting by approximately 66% between 1929 and 1934.

从历史上看，美国已经采取了关税来保护国内工业免受外国竞争的影响，这一战略在大萧条的早期就可以使用。一个定义的例子是1930年的《史密斯·霍利关税法》，该法案对超过20,000件进口商品的关税大大提高了关税。这项立法旨在保护美国农民和制造商在1929年股票市场崩溃的情况下挣扎的美国农民和制造商签署的法律。但是，这项政策非常适合。它没有加强美国经济，而是引起了25个贸易伙伴的迅速报复，包括加拿大和几个欧洲国家，他们对美国商品征收关税。这次tit-for-Tat升级引发了国际贸易的严重收缩，在1929年至1934年之间，全球贸易暴跌了约66％。

According to our analysis, we expect that other nations will initially respond to the newly imposed U.S. tariffs by implementing their own tariffs on American products. This is likely to initiate a negotiation phase between the United States and these countries. Through this process, the U.S. has the opportunity to redefine the global trade landscape and enhance its position within it.

根据我们的分析，我们希望其他国家最初通过对美国产品的关税实施自己的关税来应对新强加的美国关税。这很可能会在美国与这些国家之间启动谈判阶段。通过这一过程，美国有机会重新定义全球贸易景观并提高其在其中的地位。

If negotiations proceed favorably and the U.S. secures its objectives, we anticipate a shift in market sentiment towards a more risk-on attitude. However, this process may take several months and could potentially reverse. Currently, our outlook remains bearish for the near term, with a shift to a bullish stance anticipated only after the Federal Reserve intervenes and announces interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy.

如果谈判得以实现，并且美国确保了其目标，我们预计市场情绪会向更风险的态度转变。但是，这个过程可能需要几个月的时间，并且可能会扭转。目前，我们的前景在短期内仍然是看跌的，只有在美联储干预并宣布降低利率以刺激经济的情况下，就会向看涨的立场转变。

Macro at a glance

一眼宏观

Last Thursday (25-03-27)

上周四（25-03-27）

In the fourth quarter of 2024, core PCE prices in the United States increased by 2.6%, which is slightly below the anticipated 2.7% but an increase from the 2.2% recorded in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve implemented a 50 basis point rate cut last September, followed by two rate cuts of 25 basis points each after.

在2024年的第四季度，美国的核心PCE价格上涨了2.6％，略低于预期的2.7％，但比第三季度记录的2.2％增加。美联储于去年9月实施了50个基点率，随后削减了25个基点25个基点。

The US GDP experienced a quarterly

美国GDP经历了季度