Paxg Gold Stablecoin（$ paxg）本週的興趣最高

Pax Gold（$ PAXG）是由Paxos發行的實物黃金支持的穩定幣。在全球貿易戰引起的不確定性的加劇之中，投資者轉向Paxg代幣

This week's report:

本週的報告：

Top Interest of the Week

本週的最高興趣

PAXG is a stablecoin backed by physical gold, issued by Paxos. As global trade war uncertainty heightened, investors turned to PAXG tokens to gain exposure to gold. Despite a downturn in the broader cryptocurrency market due to increased risks, PAXG reached a new all-time high of $3,195 on exchanges, while the PAXG/BTC trading pair also hit a four-month peak.

Paxg是由Paxos發行的實物黃金支持的穩定幣。隨著全球貿易戰不確定性的提高，投資者轉向Paxg代幣，以獲取黃金。儘管由於風險增加而導致更廣泛的加密貨幣市場下滑，但Paxg在交易所的新歷史最高高點上達到了3,195美元，而PAXG/BTC交易對也達到了四個月的高峰。

First Digital USD (FDUSD), a USD-pegged stablecoin issued by First Digital Trust, encountered negative sentiment when Justin Sun, the founder of Tron, alleged that the issuer was effectively insolvent and unable to return funds to customers. Following Sun's initial post on X, the price of $FDUSD plummeted to $0.8726 USDT. However, it gradually recovered to 0.99 USDT after the issuer addressed the allegations. Both parties held press conferences, which helped restore market confidence, leading to $FDUSD trading around the 0.9950 USDT mark.

First Digital USD（FDUSD）是由First Digital Trust發行的USD PEGGGEGGEGGECOIN，當時Tron的創始人Justin Sun聲稱發行人有效地破產並且無法將資金退還給客戶時，遇到了負面情緒。在Sun在X上發表了最初的帖子之後，FDUSD的價格下降到$ 0.8726 USDT。但是，在發行人談到指控後，它逐漸收回到0.99 USDT。雙方舉行了新聞發布會，這有助於恢復市場信心，從而導致$ fdusd的交易約為0.9950美元。

Overall Market

總體市場

The above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at the log scale.

上圖是日誌量表每日蠟燭圖中的BTC價格。

Our analysis from the previous week suggested that Bitcoin's price is expected to fluctuate between $80,000 and $90,000. We also raised concerns regarding the impending reciprocal tariffs introduced by President Trump.

我們上週的分析表明，比特幣的價格預計將波動80,000至90,000美元。我們還對特朗普總統提出的即將到來的相互關稅提出了擔憂。

Last Friday, the core PCE price index exceeded expectations, leading to market concerns about the Federal Reserve's strategy for interest rate cuts in 2025. With persistent inflation in the US and the potential effects of tariffs on prices, the market has reduced the probability of a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve this year.

上週五，核心PCE價格指數超出了預期，導致市場對美聯儲在2025年降低利率降低戰略的關注。隨著美國的持續通貨膨脹以及關稅對價格的潛在影響，市場降低了今年聯邦儲備從聯邦儲備中邁出更容易適應性的貨幣政策的可能性。

While tariffs may also affect consumer spending and indirectly decrease demand for goods and services, potentially leading to a reduction in inflation, the numerous variables involved make it difficult to ascertain the extent of their negative impact on inflation.

雖然關稅也可能影響消費者的支出，並間接減少對商品和服務的需求，這可能導致通貨膨脹率降低，但涉及的眾多變量使得難以確定其對通貨膨脹的負面影響的程度。

On Wednesday afternoon, Bitcoin ($BTC) experienced a remarkable surge, surpassing the $89,000 mark following President Trump's announcement that universal tariffs would be set at 10% instead of the previously proposed 20%. However, this upward momentum was short-lived as the market quickly reversed direction after additional information regarding reciprocal tariffs came to light. Following the press conference, BTC experienced a sharp decline, dropping below $83,000, which coincided with a more than 2% decrease in the S&P 500 index after market close.

週三下午，比特幣（$ BTC）經歷了驚人的激增，在特朗普總統宣布將普遍關稅設定為10％而不是先前提議的20％之後，比特幣超過了89,000美元。但是，這種向上的勢頭是短暫的，因為在揭露了有關相互關稅的其他信息之後，市場迅速扭轉了方向。新聞發布會後，BTC的下降急劇下降，低於83,000美元，這與市場關閉後的標準普爾500指數下降了2％以上。

Our analysis suggests that the market's initial reaction to the decline in risk assets was expected. We anticipate that this downward trend will continue for an extended period as other countries develop their responses to the tariffs imposed by the United States.

我們的分析表明，市場對風險資產下降的最初反應預計。我們預計，隨著其他國家對美國征收的關稅的反應，這種下降趨勢將持續很長時間。

Historically, the United States has employed tariffs to shield domestic industries from foreign competition, a strategy prominently utilized during the early years of the Great Depression. A defining example is the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which dramatically increased tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods. Signed into law by President Herbert Hoover, this legislation aimed to protect American farmers and manufacturers struggling amid the economic downturn that began with the stock market crash of 1929. However, the policy backfired spectacularly. Rather than bolstering the U.S. economy, it provoked swift retaliation from 25 trading partners, including Canada and several European nations, who imposed their own tariffs on American goods. This tit-for-tat escalation triggered a severe contraction in international trade, with global trade plummeting by approximately 66% between 1929 and 1934.

從歷史上看，美國已經採取了關稅來保護國內工業免受外國競爭的影響，這一戰略在大蕭條的早期就可以使用。一個定義的例子是1930年的《史密斯·霍利關稅法》，該法案對超過20,000件進口商品的關稅大大提高了關稅。這項立法旨在保護美國農民和製造商在1929年股票市場崩潰的情況下掙扎的美國農民和製造商簽署的法律。但是，這項政策非常適合。它沒有加強美國經濟，而是引起了25個貿易夥伴的迅速報復，包括加拿大和幾個歐洲國家，他們對美國商品徵收關稅。這次tit-for-Tat升級引發了國際貿易的嚴重收縮，在1929年至1934年之間，全球貿易暴跌了約66％。

According to our analysis, we expect that other nations will initially respond to the newly imposed U.S. tariffs by implementing their own tariffs on American products. This is likely to initiate a negotiation phase between the United States and these countries. Through this process, the U.S. has the opportunity to redefine the global trade landscape and enhance its position within it.

根據我們的分析，我們希望其他國家最初通過對美國產品的關稅實施自己的關稅來應對新強加的美國關稅。這很可能會在美國與這些國家之間啟動談判階段。通過這一過程，美國有機會重新定義全球貿易景觀並提高其在其中的地位。

If negotiations proceed favorably and the U.S. secures its objectives, we anticipate a shift in market sentiment towards a more risk-on attitude. However, this process may take several months and could potentially reverse. Currently, our outlook remains bearish for the near term, with a shift to a bullish stance anticipated only after the Federal Reserve intervenes and announces interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy.

如果談判得以實現，並且美國確保了其目標，我們預計市場情緒會向更風險的態度轉變。但是，這個過程可能需要幾個月的時間，並且可能會扭轉。目前，我們的前景在短期內仍然是看跌的，只有在美聯儲干預並宣布降低利率以刺激經濟的情況下，就會向看漲的立場轉變。

Macro at a glance

一眼宏觀

Last Thursday (25-03-27)

上週四（25-03-27）

In the fourth quarter of 2024, core PCE prices in the United States increased by 2.6%, which is slightly below the anticipated 2.7% but an increase from the 2.2% recorded in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve implemented a 50 basis point rate cut last September, followed by two rate cuts of 25 basis points each after.

在2024年的第四季度，美國的核心PCE價格上漲了2.6％，略低於預期的2.7％，但比第三季度記錄的2.2％增加。美聯儲於去年9月實施了50個基點率，隨後削減了25個基點25個基點。

The US GDP experienced a quarterly

美國GDP經歷了季度