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随着比特币吸引全球投资者的关注,链上数据分析变得更加重要。
Bitcoin has been attracting attention from investors around the globe, making on-chain data analysis even more essential. One metric that has recently gained traction is the Momentum Short-Term Holder (STH) Cap Ratio, an experimental metric created by BinhDang, a quantitative analyst at CryptoQuant.
比特币一直吸引着全球投资者的关注,这使得链上数据分析变得更加重要。最近受到关注的一个指标是动量短期持有者 (STH) 上限比率,这是由 CryptoQuant 定量分析师 BinhDang 创建的一项实验指标。
The Momentum STH Cap Ratio has returned to the “WARM” area, which is a positive sign that suggests Bitcoin activity is beginning to accelerate, albeit slowly.
动量 STH 上限比率已回到“温暖”区域,这是一个积极的信号,表明比特币活动正在开始加速,尽管速度缓慢。
What is the Momentum STH Cap Ratio?
什么是动量 STH 上限比率?
The Momentum STH Cap Ratio is a new but relatively simple metric created by CryptoQuant analyst BinhDang. It provides a unique perspective on market direction by calculating the difference between the Market Cap and the Realized Cap. Specifically, it targets short-term holders, defined as those who have been holding tokens for six months or less.
动量 STH 上限比率是 CryptoQuant 分析师 BinhDang 创建的一个新的但相对简单的指标。它通过计算市值和已实现市值之间的差异,提供了关于市场方向的独特视角。具体来说,它针对的是短期持有者,即持有代币六个月或更短时间的人。
The rationale behind this index is that short-term holders are sensitive to fluctuations in prices, which in turn cause fluctuations in cycles. By deriving a ratio of the Market Cap and the Realized Cap of these cohorts, analysts can gauge the shifts of the major waves and movements in the market.
该指数背后的原理是短期持有者对价格波动敏感,进而导致周期波动。通过得出这些群体的市值和已实现市值的比率,分析师可以衡量市场主要波动和走势的变化。
How does the STH Cap Ratio work?
STH 上限比率如何运作?
The Momentum STH Cap Ratio chart provided by BinhDang showcases the movement since 2011 (STH cap ratio of Bitcoin). The metric is observed to be categorized into several phases:
BinhDang 提供的动量 STH 上限比率图表展示了自 2011 年以来的走势(比特币的 STH 上限比率)。据观察,该指标分为几个阶段:
Historically, as this ratio enters the “Hot” territory, we have seen the observation of major Bitcoin price tops. In contrast, the “Cold’ and ‘Cool’ phases depict the lower phase or the accumulation phases in the market.
从历史上看,随着这个比率进入“热门”区域,我们已经观察到了主要的比特币价格顶部。相反,“冷”和“冷”阶段描述了市场的较低阶段或积累阶段。
Current Market Outlook: Momentum Recovery, But Slow
当前市场前景:势头复苏,但缓慢
In the latest indicator, the Momentum STH Cap Ratio is seen to be returning to the “WARM” area. This is a positive indication, suggesting that activity is beginning to accelerate, albeit slowly. The chart also indicates that in previous times, the ratio entered this phase, and Bitcoin experienced an upward movement in prices.
在最新指标中,动量 STH 上限比率正在回归“温暖”区域。这是一个积极的迹象,表明经济活动正在开始加速,尽管速度缓慢。该图表还表明,在之前的时期,该比率进入了这一阶段,比特币经历了价格上涨。
Hence, the” WARM” zone implies growing bullish tones, but caution is still advised. Other factors that have been impacting market conditions include inflation concerns, geopolitical issues, and interest rate changes. Such external factors are still keeping the market from quickly bouncing back to enter the ‘HOT’ phase.
因此,“温暖”区域意味着看涨情绪不断增强,但仍建议谨慎。影响市场状况的其他因素包括通胀担忧、地缘政治问题和利率变化。这些外部因素仍然阻碍市场快速反弹进入“热”阶段。
Broader Applications Beyond Bitcoin
比特币之外更广泛的应用
Similar metrics can be derived for any other token that has sufficient on-chain activity to draw patterns, giving us signals about the sentiment and momentum for multiple assets. As such, tools of this kind will continue to be useful for tracking the dynamics of short-term holders and for modeling price changes in the ever-growing crypto market.
对于任何其他具有足够链上活动来绘制模式的代币,都可以得出类似的指标,从而为我们提供有关多种资产的情绪和动量的信号。因此,此类工具将继续用于跟踪短期持有者的动态以及对不断增长的加密市场中的价格变化进行建模。
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