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隨著比特幣吸引全球投資者的關注,鏈上數據分析變得更加重要。
Bitcoin has been attracting attention from investors around the globe, making on-chain data analysis even more essential. One metric that has recently gained traction is the Momentum Short-Term Holder (STH) Cap Ratio, an experimental metric created by BinhDang, a quantitative analyst at CryptoQuant.
比特幣一直吸引著全球投資者的關注,這使得鏈上數據分析變得更加重要。最近受到關注的一個指標是動量短期持有者 (STH) 上限比率,這是由 CryptoQuant 定量分析師 BinhDang 創建的實驗指標。
The Momentum STH Cap Ratio has returned to the “WARM” area, which is a positive sign that suggests Bitcoin activity is beginning to accelerate, albeit slowly.
動量 STH 上限比率已回到「溫暖」區域,這是一個積極的信號,表明比特幣活動正在開始加速,儘管速度緩慢。
What is the Momentum STH Cap Ratio?
什麼是動量 STH 上限比率?
The Momentum STH Cap Ratio is a new but relatively simple metric created by CryptoQuant analyst BinhDang. It provides a unique perspective on market direction by calculating the difference between the Market Cap and the Realized Cap. Specifically, it targets short-term holders, defined as those who have been holding tokens for six months or less.
動量 STH 上限比率是 CryptoQuant 分析師 BinhDang 創建的一個新的但相對簡單的指標。它透過計算市值和已實現市值之間的差異,提供了關於市場方向的獨特視角。具體來說,它針對的是短期持有者,即持有代幣六個月或更短的人。
The rationale behind this index is that short-term holders are sensitive to fluctuations in prices, which in turn cause fluctuations in cycles. By deriving a ratio of the Market Cap and the Realized Cap of these cohorts, analysts can gauge the shifts of the major waves and movements in the market.
該指數背後的原理是短期持有者對價格波動敏感,進而導致週期波動。透過得出這些群體的市值和已實現市值的比率,分析師可以衡量市場主要波動和走勢的變化。
How does the STH Cap Ratio work?
STH 上限比率如何運作?
The Momentum STH Cap Ratio chart provided by BinhDang showcases the movement since 2011 (STH cap ratio of Bitcoin). The metric is observed to be categorized into several phases:
BinhDang 提供的動量 STH 上限比率圖表展示了自 2011 年以來的走勢(比特幣的 STH 上限比率)。據觀察,該指標分為幾個階段:
Historically, as this ratio enters the “Hot” territory, we have seen the observation of major Bitcoin price tops. In contrast, the “Cold’ and ‘Cool’ phases depict the lower phase or the accumulation phases in the market.
從歷史上看,隨著這個比率進入「熱門」區域,我們已經觀察到了主要的比特幣價格頂部。相反,「冷」和「冷」階段描述了市場的較低階段或累積階段。
Current Market Outlook: Momentum Recovery, But Slow
當前市場前景:勢頭復甦,但緩慢
In the latest indicator, the Momentum STH Cap Ratio is seen to be returning to the “WARM” area. This is a positive indication, suggesting that activity is beginning to accelerate, albeit slowly. The chart also indicates that in previous times, the ratio entered this phase, and Bitcoin experienced an upward movement in prices.
在最新指標中,動量 STH 上限比率正在返回「溫暖」區域。這是一個積極的跡象,表明經濟活動正在開始加速,儘管速度緩慢。該圖表還表明,在先前的時期,該比率進入了這一階段,比特幣經歷了價格上漲。
Hence, the” WARM” zone implies growing bullish tones, but caution is still advised. Other factors that have been impacting market conditions include inflation concerns, geopolitical issues, and interest rate changes. Such external factors are still keeping the market from quickly bouncing back to enter the ‘HOT’ phase.
因此,「溫暖」區域意味著看漲情緒不斷增強,但仍建議謹慎。影響市場狀況的其他因素包括通膨擔憂、地緣政治問題和利率變化。這些外部因素仍然阻礙市場快速反彈進入「熱」階段。
Broader Applications Beyond Bitcoin
比特幣以外更廣泛的應用
Similar metrics can be derived for any other token that has sufficient on-chain activity to draw patterns, giving us signals about the sentiment and momentum for multiple assets. As such, tools of this kind will continue to be useful for tracking the dynamics of short-term holders and for modeling price changes in the ever-growing crypto market.
對於任何其他具有足夠鏈上活動來繪製模式的代幣,都可以得出類似的指標,從而為我們提供有關多種資產的情緒和動量的信號。因此,此類工具將繼續用於追蹤短期持有者的動態以及對不斷增長的加密市場中的價格變化進行建模。
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