MicroStrategy 押注 94B 美元的比特币：加密货币的波动性会阻碍吗？

比特币是世界领先的加密货币，长期以来一直以其波动性而闻名，经常经历剧烈的价格波动，这可能会让投资者离开

As Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, continues to experience dramatic price swings, the question arises: will Bitcoin’s inherent volatility stand in the way of MicroStrategy’s ambitious $94 billion goal for its Bitcoin holdings, or will the cryptocurrency ultimately prevail in helping the company reach this lofty target?

随着世界领先的加密货币比特币继续经历剧烈的价格波动，问题出现了：比特币固有的波动性是否会阻碍 MicroStrategy 实现其持有比特币 940 亿美元的雄心勃勃的目标，或者加密货币最终会帮助该公司实现这一目标吗？崇高的目标？

To understand the significance of this goal, it’s important to note that MicroStrategy, a business intelligence firm led by Michael Saylor, has become one of Bitcoin’s most vocal supporters. The company began accumulating Bitcoin in 2020 as part of its treasury reserve strategy, a move that has made MicroStrategy one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin in the world.

为了理解这一目标的重要性，值得注意的是，Michael Saylor 领导的商业智能公司 MicroStrategy 已成为比特币最直言不讳的支持者之一。该公司于 2020 年开始积累比特币，作为其财务储备战略的一部分，此举使 MicroStrategy 成为全球最大的比特币企业持有者之一。

As of 2024, MicroStrategy owns more than 130,000 BTC, with an average purchase price of roughly $29,000 per coin. At current prices, this would value MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings at approximately $32 billion. However, for the company to reach its $94 billion goal, Bitcoin would need to achieve a price of around $720,000 per coin—well beyond its current price level.

截至 2024 年，MicroStrategy 拥有超过 130,000 枚 BTC，平均购买价格约为每枚 29,000 美元。按照当前价格计算，MicroStrategy 持有的比特币估值约为 320 亿美元。然而，要使该公司实现 940 亿美元的目标，比特币的价格需要达到每枚 72 万美元左右，远远超出目前的价格水平。

Bitcoin’s volatility, however, presents a major challenge for both MicroStrategy and its investors. The cryptocurrency market is known for its extreme price fluctuations, with Bitcoin regularly experiencing sharp increases and decreases in value. These price swings, while creating opportunities for profit, also pose significant risks.

然而，比特币的波动性给 MicroStrategy 及其投资者带来了重大挑战。加密货币市场以其极端的价格波动而闻名，比特币的价值经常经历急剧的上涨和下跌。这些价格波动在创造利润机会的同时，也带来了重大风险。

In 2021, Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of nearly $70,000 before experiencing a dramatic correction, falling below $30,000 in 2022. Despite this volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term trend has been upward, with the cryptocurrency consistently reaching new highs after periods of correction.

2021 年，比特币飙升至近 70,000 美元的历史新高，随后经历了大幅回调，并于 2022 年跌破 30,000 美元。尽管存在这种波动，但比特币的长期趋势一直向上，加密货币在经过一段时间的回调后不断创出新高。

However, the volatility also raises concerns for companies like MicroStrategy that have made Bitcoin a core component of their corporate strategy. If Bitcoin’s price falls sharply, the value of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings could also drop significantly, potentially harming its balance sheet and investor confidence.

然而，比特币的波动性也引发了像 MicroStrategy 这样的公司的担忧，这些公司已将比特币作为其公司战略的核心组成部分。如果比特币价格大幅下跌，MicroStrategy 持有的比特币价值也可能大幅下跌，可能会损害其资产负债表和投资者信心。

MicroStrategy’s large Bitcoin bet has also exposed the company to market fluctuations that could impact its stock price. If Bitcoin were to face another steep decline, it could lead to pressure on the company’s stock as investors reassess the risk of holding such a volatile asset in the corporate treasury.

MicroStrategy 对比特币的大量押注也使该公司面临可能影响其股价的市场波动。如果比特币再次面临大幅下跌，可能会导致该公司股票承压，因为投资者重新评估在公司财务中持有这种波动性资产的风险。

Despite Bitcoin’s volatility, many proponents, including Saylor and other institutional investors, believe that the cryptocurrency’s long-term prospects far outweigh its short-term fluctuations. Bitcoin has increasingly been viewed as “digital gold,” a store of value and a hedge against inflation.

尽管比特币波动较大，但包括塞勒和其他机构投资者在内的许多支持者认为，这种加密货币的长期前景远远超过其短期波动。比特币越来越被视为“数字黄金”、一种价值储存手段和对冲通胀的手段。

As institutional adoption continues to rise, Bitcoin’s price could be supported by greater demand, with more companies, hedge funds, and financial institutions seeking exposure to the asset. In addition, Bitcoin’s scarcity is a key factor that drives its appeal. With a maximum supply of only 21 million coins, Bitcoin’s fixed supply could create upward price pressure as demand increases.

随着机构采用率持续上升，比特币的价格可能会受到更大需求的支撑，更多公司、对冲基金和金融机构寻求投资该资产。此外，比特币的稀缺性是推动其吸引力的关键因素。比特币的最大供应量仅为 2100 万枚，随着需求的增加，比特币的固定供应量可能会造成价格上涨的压力。

The cryptocurrency’s decentralized nature and potential to disrupt traditional financial systems also continue to attract both individual and institutional investors, further fueling the bullish sentiment.

加密货币的去中心化性质和颠覆传统金融体系的潜力也继续吸引个人和机构投资者，进一步助长看涨情绪。

Bitcoin has already demonstrated the ability to rebound from market downturns. For example, after the crash in early 2022, Bitcoin recovered and experienced another bull run in 2023, with some analysts predicting that the next major rally could push Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

比特币已经展现出了从市场低迷中反弹的能力。例如，比特币在 2022 年初崩盘后复苏，并在 2023 年经历了另一场牛市，一些分析师预测，下一次大幅反弹可能会推动比特币创下历史新高。

If Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition continues to hold true, MicroStrategy’s $94 billion goal could still be achievable, even if the cryptocurrency faces short-term volatility.

如果比特币的长期价值主张继续成立，即使加密货币面临短期波动，MicroStrategy 的 940 亿美元目标仍然可以实现。

One of the key factors working in MicroStrategy’s favor is its resilience and commitment to its Bitcoin strategy. Saylor, who stepped down as CEO in 2022 but remains executive chairman, has been unwavering in his belief that Bitcoin will play a pivotal role in the future of finance.

对 MicroStrategy 有利的关键因素之一是其韧性和对比特币战略的承诺。塞勒于 2022 年辞去首席执行官一职，但仍担任执行董事长，他一直坚定不移地相信比特币将在未来的金融中发挥关键作用。

This conviction has influenced the company’s strategy, and despite Bitcoin’s volatile nature, MicroStrategy has continued to accumulate Bitcoin whenever the price dips, further reinforcing its position as a long-term holder.

这一信念影响了该公司的战略，尽管比特币具有波动性，但只要价格下跌，MicroStrategy 就会继续积累比特币，进一步巩固其作为长期持有者的地位。

Moreover, MicroStrategy has managed its Bitcoin acquisitions with a clear understanding of the potential risks. By utilizing leverage and taking a long-term perspective, the company has weathered short-term downturns without liquidating its holdings.

此外，MicroStrategy 在管理其比特币收购时，对潜在风险有清晰的认识。通过利用杠杆并着眼长远，该公司在没有清算所持股份的情况下度过了短期低迷期。

This approach suggests that MicroStrategy is not overly reliant on short-term price movements and is willing to ride out volatility in pursuit of its $94 billion goal.

这种方法表明 MicroStrategy 并不过分依赖短期价格走势，并且愿意克服波动来实现 940 亿美元的目标。

MicroStrategy’s $94 billion target for its Bitcoin holdings is undoubtedly ambitious, especially considering Bitcoin’s volatile price history. The road to such a valuation would require Bitcoin to experience significant appreciation over time, and there are certainly risks involved, including market fluctuations and regulatory uncertainty.

MicroStrategy 设定的 940 亿美元比特币持有目标无疑是雄心勃勃的，特别是考虑到比特币价格波动的历史。实现这样的估值之路需要比特币随着时间的推移经历大幅升值，并且肯定会涉及风险，包括市场波动和监管不确定性。

However, if Bitcoin’s long-term growth trajectory continues, MicroStrategy could see its holdings appreciate substantially, helping the company achieve its goal.

然而，如果比特币的长期增长轨迹持续下去，MicroStrategy 可能会看到其持有的比特币大幅升值，从而帮助该公司实现其目标。

Ultimately,

最终，