MicroStrategy 押注 94B 美元的比特幣：加密貨幣的波動性會阻礙嗎？

比特幣是世界領先的加密貨幣，長期以來一直以其波動性而聞名，經常經歷劇烈的價格波動，這可能會讓投資者離開

As Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, continues to experience dramatic price swings, the question arises: will Bitcoin’s inherent volatility stand in the way of MicroStrategy’s ambitious $94 billion goal for its Bitcoin holdings, or will the cryptocurrency ultimately prevail in helping the company reach this lofty target?

隨著世界領先的加密貨幣比特幣繼續經歷劇烈的價格波動，問題出現了：比特幣固有的波動性是否會阻礙MicroStrategy 實現其持有比特幣940 億美元的雄心勃勃的目標，或者加密貨幣最終會幫助該公司實現這一目標嗎？

To understand the significance of this goal, it’s important to note that MicroStrategy, a business intelligence firm led by Michael Saylor, has become one of Bitcoin’s most vocal supporters. The company began accumulating Bitcoin in 2020 as part of its treasury reserve strategy, a move that has made MicroStrategy one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin in the world.

為了理解這一目標的重要性，值得注意的是，Michael Saylor 領導的商業智慧公司 MicroStrategy 已成為比特幣最直言不諱的支持者之一。該公司於 2020 年開始累積比特幣，作為其財務儲備策略的一部分，此舉使 MicroStrategy 成為全球最大的比特幣企業持有者之一。

As of 2024, MicroStrategy owns more than 130,000 BTC, with an average purchase price of roughly $29,000 per coin. At current prices, this would value MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings at approximately $32 billion. However, for the company to reach its $94 billion goal, Bitcoin would need to achieve a price of around $720,000 per coin—well beyond its current price level.

截至 2024 年，MicroStrategy 擁有超過 13 萬枚 BTC，平均購買價格約為每枚 29,000 美元。以目前價格計算，MicroStrategy 持有的比特幣估值約為 320 億美元。然而，要使該公司實現 940 億美元的目標，比特幣的價格需要達到每枚 72 萬美元左右，遠遠超出目前的價格水平。

Bitcoin’s volatility, however, presents a major challenge for both MicroStrategy and its investors. The cryptocurrency market is known for its extreme price fluctuations, with Bitcoin regularly experiencing sharp increases and decreases in value. These price swings, while creating opportunities for profit, also pose significant risks.

然而，比特幣的波動性為 MicroStrategy 及其投資者帶來了重大挑戰。加密貨幣市場以其極端的價格波動而聞名，比特幣的價值經常經歷急劇的上漲和下跌。這些價格波動在創造利潤機會的同時，也帶來了重大風險。

In 2021, Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of nearly $70,000 before experiencing a dramatic correction, falling below $30,000 in 2022. Despite this volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term trend has been upward, with the cryptocurrency consistently reaching new highs after periods of correction.

2021 年，比特幣飆升至近70,000 美元的歷史新高，隨後經歷了大幅回調，並於2022 年跌破30,000 美元。回調後不斷創出新高。

However, the volatility also raises concerns for companies like MicroStrategy that have made Bitcoin a core component of their corporate strategy. If Bitcoin’s price falls sharply, the value of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings could also drop significantly, potentially harming its balance sheet and investor confidence.

然而，比特幣的波動性也引發了像 MicroStrategy 這樣的公司的擔憂，這些公司已將比特幣作為其公司策略的核心組成部分。如果比特幣價格大幅下跌，MicroStrategy 持有的比特幣價值也可能大幅下跌，可能會損害其資產負債表和投資者信心。

MicroStrategy’s large Bitcoin bet has also exposed the company to market fluctuations that could impact its stock price. If Bitcoin were to face another steep decline, it could lead to pressure on the company’s stock as investors reassess the risk of holding such a volatile asset in the corporate treasury.

MicroStrategy 對比特幣的大量押注也使該公司面臨可能影響其股價的市場波動。如果比特幣再次面臨大幅下跌，可能會導致該公司股票承壓，因為投資者重新評估在公司財務中持有這種波動性資產的風險。

Despite Bitcoin’s volatility, many proponents, including Saylor and other institutional investors, believe that the cryptocurrency’s long-term prospects far outweigh its short-term fluctuations. Bitcoin has increasingly been viewed as “digital gold,” a store of value and a hedge against inflation.

儘管比特幣波動較大，但包括塞勒和其他機構投資者在內的許多支持者認為，這種加密貨幣的長期前景遠遠超過其短期波動。比特幣越來越被視為「數位黃金」、一種價值儲存手段和對沖通膨的手段。

As institutional adoption continues to rise, Bitcoin’s price could be supported by greater demand, with more companies, hedge funds, and financial institutions seeking exposure to the asset. In addition, Bitcoin’s scarcity is a key factor that drives its appeal. With a maximum supply of only 21 million coins, Bitcoin’s fixed supply could create upward price pressure as demand increases.

隨著機構採用率持續上升，比特幣的價格可能會受到更大需求的支撐，更多公司、對沖基金和金融機構尋求投資該資產。此外，比特幣的稀缺性是推動其吸引力的關鍵因素。由於比特幣的最大供應量僅為 2,100 萬枚，隨著需求的增加，比特幣的固定供應量可能會產生價格上漲的壓力。

The cryptocurrency’s decentralized nature and potential to disrupt traditional financial systems also continue to attract both individual and institutional investors, further fueling the bullish sentiment.

加密貨幣的去中心化性質和顛覆傳統金融體系的潛力也持續吸引個人和機構投資者，進一步助長看漲情緒。

Bitcoin has already demonstrated the ability to rebound from market downturns. For example, after the crash in early 2022, Bitcoin recovered and experienced another bull run in 2023, with some analysts predicting that the next major rally could push Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

比特幣已經展現出了從市場低迷中反彈的能力。例如，比特幣在 2022 年初崩盤後復甦，並在 2023 年經歷了另一場牛市，一些分析師預測，下一次大幅反彈可能會推動比特幣創下歷史新高。

If Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition continues to hold true, MicroStrategy’s $94 billion goal could still be achievable, even if the cryptocurrency faces short-term volatility.

如果比特幣的長期價值主張繼續成立，即使加密貨幣面臨短期波動，MicroStrategy 的 940 億美元目標仍然可以實現。

One of the key factors working in MicroStrategy’s favor is its resilience and commitment to its Bitcoin strategy. Saylor, who stepped down as CEO in 2022 but remains executive chairman, has been unwavering in his belief that Bitcoin will play a pivotal role in the future of finance.

對 MicroStrategy 有利的關鍵因素之一是其韌性和對比特幣策略的承諾。塞勒於 2022 年辭去執行長職務，但仍擔任執行董事長，他始終堅定不移地相信比特幣將在未來金融中發揮關鍵作用。

This conviction has influenced the company’s strategy, and despite Bitcoin’s volatile nature, MicroStrategy has continued to accumulate Bitcoin whenever the price dips, further reinforcing its position as a long-term holder.

這一信念影響了該公司的策略，儘管比特幣具有波動性，但只要價格下跌，MicroStrategy 就會繼續累積比特幣，進一步鞏固其作為長期持有者的地位。

Moreover, MicroStrategy has managed its Bitcoin acquisitions with a clear understanding of the potential risks. By utilizing leverage and taking a long-term perspective, the company has weathered short-term downturns without liquidating its holdings.

此外，MicroStrategy 在管理其比特幣收購時，對潛在風險有清晰的認識。透過利用槓桿並著眼長遠，該公司在沒有清算所持股份的情況下度過了短期低迷期。

This approach suggests that MicroStrategy is not overly reliant on short-term price movements and is willing to ride out volatility in pursuit of its $94 billion goal.

這種方法表明 MicroStrategy 並不過度依賴短期價格趨勢，並且願意克服波動來實現 940 億美元的目標。

MicroStrategy’s $94 billion target for its Bitcoin holdings is undoubtedly ambitious, especially considering Bitcoin’s volatile price history. The road to such a valuation would require Bitcoin to experience significant appreciation over time, and there are certainly risks involved, including market fluctuations and regulatory uncertainty.

MicroStrategy 設定的 940 億美元比特幣持有目標無疑是雄心勃勃的，特別是考慮到比特幣價格波動的歷史。實現這樣的估值之路需要比特幣隨著時間的推移經歷大幅升值，並且肯定會涉及風險，包括市場波動和監管不確定性。

However, if Bitcoin’s long-term growth trajectory continues, MicroStrategy could see its holdings appreciate substantially, helping the company achieve its goal.

然而，如果比特幣的長期成長軌跡持續下去，MicroStrategy 可能會看到其持有的比特幣大幅升值，從而幫助該公司實現其目標。

Ultimately,

最終，