分析师说，美国市场活动可能引发比特币集会。

尽管比特币（BTC）在2025年拥有最弱的第一批季度之一，但希望在下半年的市场反弹仍然如此。

A crypto analyst is looking at a U.S.-based exchange metric that could spark the next leg up for Bitcoin (BTC).

一位加密分析师正在研究一个总部位于美国的交换指标，该指标可能会激发比特币（BTC）的下一条腿。

Despite one of the weakest first quarters in recent times, Bitcoin could still be setting up for a second-half market rebound.

尽管最近最弱的季度之一，但比特币仍然可以为下半场市场的篮板做准备。

Analyst Axel Adler says that rising activity on U.S.-based crypto exchanges may be setting the stage for an upcoming bullish trend.

分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒（Axel Adler）表示，基于美国加密货币交易所的活动的上升可能正在为即将到来的看涨趋势奠定基础。

Adler says that the “US vs. Offshore Ratio” is showing signs of reversal, which could be pivotal. This metric tracks the transfer volumes between U.S. and international exchanges.

阿德勒说，“美国与海上比率”显示出逆转的迹象，这可能是关键的。这标准跟踪了我们与国际交流之间的转移量。

The ratio had been decreasing since BTC reached its all-time high in January, but it’s now moving in the opposite direction. This shift indicates that U.S. markets are regaining their dominance, a pattern observed during past bull runs.

自BTC在一月份达到历史最高水平以来，该比率一直在下降，但现在朝相反的方向移动。这种转变表明，美国市场正在重新获得统治地位，这种模式在过去的牛市中观察到。

During periods when the U.S. exchanges have a stronger presence, it suggests that users are actively trading and integrating cryptocurrencies into the mainstream financial system. Conversely, a dominance of offshore exchanges may signal a period of lower trading activity.

在美国交易所具有更强的业务期间，这表明用户正在积极交易并将加密货币整合到主流金融体系中。相反，离岸交易所的优势可能表明交易活动较低。

Furthermore, the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) has crossed above the 365-day SMA. This pattern is significant as it has previously coincided with major increases in Bitcoin’s price.

此外，为期90天的简单移动平均线（SMA）已超过365天SMA。这种模式很重要，因为它以前与比特币价格的重大上涨相吻合。

Adler notes that a similar crossover occurred when BTC was trading around $60,000, which was later followed by a substantial rally.

阿德勒（Adler）指出，当BTC交易约60,000美元时，发生了类似的跨界车，随后进行了大量集会。

However, even with this promising signal, time will ultimately determine whether this reversal marks the beginning of Bitcoin’s next upward move.

但是，即使有了这个有希望的信号，时间最终仍将确定这种逆转是否标志着比特币下一个向上移动的开始。