US Market Activity Could Spark Bitcoin Rally, Analyst Says

Despite Bitcoin (BTC) having one of its weakest first quarters in 2025, hopes remain for a market rebound in the second half of the year.

A crypto analyst is looking at a U.S.-based exchange metric that could spark the next leg up for Bitcoin (BTC).

Despite one of the weakest first quarters in recent times, Bitcoin could still be setting up for a second-half market rebound.

Analyst Axel Adler says that rising activity on U.S.-based crypto exchanges may be setting the stage for an upcoming bullish trend.

Adler says that the “US vs. Offshore Ratio” is showing signs of reversal, which could be pivotal. This metric tracks the transfer volumes between U.S. and international exchanges.

The ratio had been decreasing since BTC reached its all-time high in January, but it’s now moving in the opposite direction. This shift indicates that U.S. markets are regaining their dominance, a pattern observed during past bull runs.

During periods when the U.S. exchanges have a stronger presence, it suggests that users are actively trading and integrating cryptocurrencies into the mainstream financial system. Conversely, a dominance of offshore exchanges may signal a period of lower trading activity.

Furthermore, the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) has crossed above the 365-day SMA. This pattern is significant as it has previously coincided with major increases in Bitcoin’s price.

Adler notes that a similar crossover occurred when BTC was trading around $60,000, which was later followed by a substantial rally.

However, even with this promising signal, time will ultimately determine whether this reversal marks the beginning of Bitcoin’s next upward move.