宏观经济学家林恩·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）预计比特币将获得2025年的价格高于目前的价格约85,000美元

宏观经济学家林恩·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）预计比特币将比目前的价格高约85,000美元，尽管她说这会更高

Macroeconomist Lyn Alden expects Bitcoin (BTC) to finish 2025 higher than its current price of around $85,000, though she says it would have been much higher if not for US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement in February.

宏观经济学家林恩·奥尔登（Lyn Alden）预计比特币（BTC）的2025年将高于目前的价格约为85,000美元，尽管她说，如果不是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在2月份的宣布，那将会更高。

“Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” Alden told Natalie Brunell on the April 17 episode of Coin Stories. “My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least,” she added.

“在所有这些关税Kerfuffle之前，我的目标价格更高，” Alden在4月17日的Coin Stories插曲中告诉Natalie Brunell。她补充说：“我的猜测是，至少在年底时，我们最终会比现在更高。”

Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading bolsters volatility when TradFi ‘freaking out’

比特币的24/7贸易螺栓波斯特（Tradfi）“吓坏”时的波动性

However, she said that a “massive liquidity unlock” could be the catalyst needed for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach more optimistic targets, similar to those before the tariffs were introduced.

但是，她说，比特币（BTC）达到更乐观的目标所需的催化剂可能是类似于关税之前所需的催化剂。

For example, if the US bond market “broke” and the US Federal Reserve had to step in with measures like yield curve control or heavy quantitative easing (QE), Alden explained.

例如，如果美国债券市场“破产”，而美国的美联储必须采取措施，例如收益曲线控制或重度宽松（QE），Alden解释说。

While Alden said that there is a “good chance” Bitcoin reclaims the $100,000 price level before the end of the year, she emphasized that market “down days” will remain a challenge for the asset, especially since Bitcoin trades 24/7, unlike traditional stock markets with trading hours.

尽管奥尔登（Alden）表示，比特币在年底之前收回了100,000美元的价格水平，但她强调，市场“下降日”将仍然是资产的挑战，尤其是因为比特币交易24/7，这与传统的股票市场不同。

“Because it trades 24/7, if people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare,” she said.

她说：“因为它交易24/7，如果人们担心周一的开放方式，那么一些资本池可以在周日出售其比特币并准备。”

Alden explained that crypto’s round-the-clock trading contributes to its "volatile pricing," particularly when traditional financial markets are “freaking out.”

奥尔登（Alden）解释说，加密货币的全天候交易有助于其“动荡的定价”，尤其是当传统金融市场“吓坏了”时。

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $84,950, according to CoinMarketCap data.

根据CoinMarketCap数据，在出版时，比特币的交易价格为84,950美元。

However, Alden said Bitcoin can “disconnect” from the Nasdaq 100, especially in situations that “hurt Nasdaq margins” without affecting global liquidity. As an example, she pointed to a potential repeat of the five years leading up to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, which she believes could be favorable for Bitcoin.

但是，奥尔登说，比特币可以与纳斯达克100号“断开连接”，尤其是在“损害纳斯达克边缘”而不会影响全球流动性的情况下。例如，她指出了在2008年全球金融危机之前的五年中的潜在重复，她认为这对比特币有利。

She pointed to the 2003–2007 period, where there was a weaker US dollar cycle, and while there wasn’t a mass exodus of capital, it did flow into “emerging markets,” commodities, gold, and other assets — with US stocks not “really being the place to be.”

她指出了2003 - 2007年的时期，那里的美元周期较弱，尽管没有大规模的资本外流，但它确实流入了“新兴市场”，商品，黄金和其他资产 - 美国股票并不是“真正的地方”。

Alden wrote in a September research report that Bitcoin moves in the direction of global M2 83% of the time in a given 12-month period.

奥尔登（Alden）在9月的一份研究报告中写道，比特币在给定的12个月期间在全球M2的方向上移动了83％。

The research, termed “Bitcoin a Global Liquidity Barometer,” compared Bitcoin to other major asset classes such as SPX, gold and VT, and BTC topped the correlation index concerning global liquidity.

这项研究称为“比特币全球流动性晴雨表”，将比特币与SPX，Gold和VT等其他主要资产类别进行了比较，而BTC则超过了有关全球流动性的相关指数。