宏觀經濟學家林恩·奧爾登（Lyn Alden）預計比特幣將獲得2025年的價格高於目前的價格約85,000美元

宏觀經濟學家林恩·奧爾登（Lyn Alden）預計比特幣將比目前的價格高約85,000美元，儘管她說這會更高

Macroeconomist Lyn Alden expects Bitcoin (BTC) to finish 2025 higher than its current price of around $85,000, though she says it would have been much higher if not for US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement in February.

宏觀經濟學家林恩·奧爾登（Lyn Alden）預計比特幣（BTC）的2025年將高於目前的價格約為85,000美元，儘管她說，如果不是美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在2月份的宣布，那將會更高。

“Before all this tariff kerfuffle, I would have had a higher price target,” Alden told Natalie Brunell on the April 17 episode of Coin Stories. “My guess is that we end up higher at the end of the year than we are now, at least,” she added.

“在所有這些關稅Kerfuffle之前，我的目標價格更高，” Alden在4月17日的Coin Stories插曲中告訴Natalie Brunell。她補充說：“我的猜測是，至少在年底時，我們最終會比現在更高。”

Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading bolsters volatility when TradFi ‘freaking out’

比特幣的24/7貿易螺栓波斯特（Tradfi）“嚇壞”時的波動性

However, she said that a “massive liquidity unlock” could be the catalyst needed for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach more optimistic targets, similar to those before the tariffs were introduced.

但是，她說，比特幣（BTC）達到更樂觀的目標所需的催化劑可能是類似於關稅之前所需的催化劑。

For example, if the US bond market “broke” and the US Federal Reserve had to step in with measures like yield curve control or heavy quantitative easing (QE), Alden explained.

例如，如果美國債券市場“破產”，而美國的美聯儲必須採取措施，例如收益曲線控製或重度寬鬆（QE），Alden解釋說。

While Alden said that there is a “good chance” Bitcoin reclaims the $100,000 price level before the end of the year, she emphasized that market “down days” will remain a challenge for the asset, especially since Bitcoin trades 24/7, unlike traditional stock markets with trading hours.

儘管奧爾登（Alden）表示，比特幣在年底之前收回了100,000美元的價格水平，但她強調，市場“下降日”將仍然是資產的挑戰，尤其是因為比特幣交易24/7，這與傳統的股票市場不同。

“Because it trades 24/7, if people are worried about how things are going to open on Monday, some pools of capital can sell their Bitcoin on a Sunday and prepare,” she said.

她說：“因為它交易24/7，如果人們擔心週一的開放方式，那麼一些資本池可以在周日出售其比特幣並準備。”

Alden explained that crypto’s round-the-clock trading contributes to its "volatile pricing," particularly when traditional financial markets are “freaking out.”

奧爾登（Alden）解釋說，加密貨幣的全天候交易有助於其“動蕩的定價”，尤其是當傳統金融市場“嚇壞了”時。

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $84,950, according to CoinMarketCap data.

根據CoinMarketCap數據，在出版時，比特幣的交易價格為84,950美元。

However, Alden said Bitcoin can “disconnect” from the Nasdaq 100, especially in situations that “hurt Nasdaq margins” without affecting global liquidity. As an example, she pointed to a potential repeat of the five years leading up to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, which she believes could be favorable for Bitcoin.

但是，奧爾登說，比特幣可以與納斯達克100號“斷開連接”，尤其是在“損害納斯達克邊緣”而不會影響全球流動性的情況下。例如，她指出了在2008年全球金融危機之前的五年中的潛在重複，她認為這對比特幣有利。

She pointed to the 2003–2007 period, where there was a weaker US dollar cycle, and while there wasn’t a mass exodus of capital, it did flow into “emerging markets,” commodities, gold, and other assets — with US stocks not “really being the place to be.”

她指出了2003 - 2007年的時期，那裡的美元週期較弱，儘管沒有大規模的資本外流，但它確實流入了“新興市場”，商品，黃金和其他資產 - 美國股票並不是“真正的地方”。

Alden wrote in a September research report that Bitcoin moves in the direction of global M2 83% of the time in a given 12-month period.

奧爾登（Alden）在9月的一份研究報告中寫道，比特幣在給定的12個月期間在全球M2的方向上移動了83％。

The research, termed “Bitcoin a Global Liquidity Barometer,” compared Bitcoin to other major asset classes such as SPX, gold and VT, and BTC topped the correlation index concerning global liquidity.

這項研究稱為“比特幣全球流動性晴雨表”，將比特幣與SPX，Gold和VT等其他主要資產類別進行了比較，而BTC則超過了有關全球流動性的相關指數。