Jurrien Timmer在股价下跌后修订了市场前景

蒂默（Timmer）介绍了一张图表，说明了在总统任期的不同阶段，标准普尔500指数的平均回报。

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's director of global macro, has revised his market outlook following a widespread decline in stock prices. In a presentation on Monday, Timmer presented a chart showcasing the average returns of the S&P 500 during various stages of presidential terms.

富达全球宏观总监Jurrien Timmer在股票价格广泛下降后修改了他的市场前景。在周一的演讲中，蒂默（Timmer）介绍了一张图表，展示了总统条款各个阶段中标准普尔500指数的平均回报。

The data indicates that the index is largely following historical trends, suggesting that the current downturn could be concluding by mid-year.

数据表明该指数在很大程度上遵循历史趋势，表明当前的衰退可能在年中结束。

While cautioning against placing too much emphasis on this pattern, Timmer observed that the cycle's mid-term year (2022) has played out as expected, considering the strong performance of the S&P 500 during the first year of the presidential cycle and the unfolding macroeconomic backdrop.

蒂默（Timmer）警告不要过分强调这种模式，但考虑到周期的中期年（2022年）已经按照预期的方式进行，考虑到总统周期的第一年中标准普尔500指数的出色表现以及不断发展的宏观经济背景。

"Perhaps we're nearing the end of this presidential cycle pattern, at least for this time around," Timmer stated.

蒂默说：“也许至少在这段时间里，我们已经快要结束了这种总统周期的模式了。”

Currently in the "fifth year" of the presidential cycle, which typically sees declines in the first half and a rally in the second half, Timmer anticipates the market to experience a mild, extended correction. He highlighted that the presidential cycle's fifth year usually witnesses a decline in the first half and a rally in the second half, leading to a mild, extended correction.

目前，总统周期的“第五年”，通常在上半场下降，下半场的集会下降，Timmer预计市场会经历轻度，扩展的更正。他强调，总统周期的第五年通常见证上半场下半场的下降，下半场的集会下降，导致了轻度，更长的更正。

Moreover, Timmer provided a closer look at 26 S&P 500 corrections dating back to 1906, noting that the ongoing pullback closely resembles the 2018 market dip both in terms of magnitude and speed.

此外，蒂默（Timmer）仔细观察了26个标准普尔500校正，可追溯到1906年，并指出，持续的回调在数量级和速度方面都与2018年的市场非常相似。

"We're currently tracking the 2018 correction closely, which serves as a useful benchmark for the present downturn," he added.

他补充说：“我们目前正在密切跟踪2018年的更正，这是当前低迷的有用基准。”

Examining the average lows reached during S&P 500 corrections, Timmer predicts that the index might bottom out near the 4,900 level. This prediction aligns with the lows reached by the Nasdaq 100 last week. After a brief recovery last week, he noted that markets remain in a 10% correction, leaving them in a no-man's-land where the next phase could see either a rise or fall.

蒂默（Timmer）检查标准普尔500指更正期间达到的平均低谷，预测该指数可能会在4,900级接近4,900级。该预测与上周纳斯达克100达到的低点相吻合。在上周短暂恢复后，他指出，市场保持了10％的纠正，使他们处于无人的土地上，下一阶段可以看到上升或下降。