Jurrien Timmer在股價下跌後修訂了市場前景

蒂默（Timmer）介紹了一張圖表，說明了在總統任期的不同階段，標準普爾500指數的平均回報。

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's director of global macro, has revised his market outlook following a widespread decline in stock prices. In a presentation on Monday, Timmer presented a chart showcasing the average returns of the S&P 500 during various stages of presidential terms.

富達全球宏觀總監Jurrien Timmer在股票價格廣泛下降後修改了他的市場前景。在周一的演講中，蒂默（Timmer）介紹了一張圖表，展示了總統條款各個階段中標準普爾500指數的平均回報。

The data indicates that the index is largely following historical trends, suggesting that the current downturn could be concluding by mid-year.

數據表明該指數在很大程度上遵循歷史趨勢，表明當前的衰退可能在年中結束。

While cautioning against placing too much emphasis on this pattern, Timmer observed that the cycle's mid-term year (2022) has played out as expected, considering the strong performance of the S&P 500 during the first year of the presidential cycle and the unfolding macroeconomic backdrop.

蒂默（Timmer）警告不要過分強調這種模式，但考慮到週期的中期年（2022年）已經按照預期的方式進行，考慮到總統週期的第一年中標準普爾500指數的出色表現以及不斷發展的宏觀經濟背景。

"Perhaps we're nearing the end of this presidential cycle pattern, at least for this time around," Timmer stated.

蒂默說：“也許至少在這段時間裡，我們已經快要結束了這種總統週期的模式了。”

Currently in the "fifth year" of the presidential cycle, which typically sees declines in the first half and a rally in the second half, Timmer anticipates the market to experience a mild, extended correction. He highlighted that the presidential cycle's fifth year usually witnesses a decline in the first half and a rally in the second half, leading to a mild, extended correction.

目前，總統週期的“第五年”，通常在上半場下降，下半場的集會下降，Timmer預計市場會經歷輕度，擴展的更正。他強調，總統週期的第五年通常見證上半場下半場的下降，下半場的集會下降，導致了輕度，更長的更正。

Moreover, Timmer provided a closer look at 26 S&P 500 corrections dating back to 1906, noting that the ongoing pullback closely resembles the 2018 market dip both in terms of magnitude and speed.

此外，蒂默（Timmer）仔細觀察了26個標準普爾500校正，可追溯到1906年，並指出，持續的回調在數量級和速度方面都與2018年的市場非常相似。

"We're currently tracking the 2018 correction closely, which serves as a useful benchmark for the present downturn," he added.

他補充說：“我們目前正在密切跟踪2018年的更正，這是當前低迷的有用基準。”

Examining the average lows reached during S&P 500 corrections, Timmer predicts that the index might bottom out near the 4,900 level. This prediction aligns with the lows reached by the Nasdaq 100 last week. After a brief recovery last week, he noted that markets remain in a 10% correction, leaving them in a no-man's-land where the next phase could see either a rise or fall.

蒂默（Timmer）檢查標準普爾500指更正期間達到的平均低谷，預測該指數可能會在4,900級接近4,900級。該預測與上周納斯達克100達到的低點相吻合。在上週短暫恢復後，他指出，市場保持了10％的糾正，使他們處於無人的土地上，下一階段可以看到上升或下降。