以太坊（ETH）價格下跌$ 1600，鯨魚轉儲143K ETH，在Dencun升級之前

以太坊（ETH）價格在周四的1,600美元低於1,600美元，在亞洲早期會議上下跌了1％，因為鯨魚驅動的賣出壓力越來越大，鏈上的指標表示重新測試了關鍵支持水平。

* Ethereum (ETH) price dropped below $1,600 on Thursday, sliding 1% during the early Asian session, as whale-driven sell pressure increased and on-chain metrics signaled a retest of critical support levels.

*以太坊（ETH）的價格在周四下跌低於1,600美元，在亞洲早期會議上下跌了1％，隨著鯨魚驅動的賣出壓力增加，鏈上指標表示重新測試了關鍵支持水平。

* A group of Ethereum whales had sold over 143,000 ETH in the past seven days, said Ali Martinez from IntoTheBlock. This coincided with rising concerns over ETH’s value accrual model and its inability to capture fees after the March 2024 Dencun upgrade.

*來自Intotheblock的阿里·馬丁內斯（Ali Martinez）說，在過去的七天中，一群以太坊鯨魚賣出了143,000多個ETH。這是對ETH的價值應計模型的不斷上升的關注，以及在2024年3月Dencun升級後無法捕獲費用的問題。

* " $1,528.50 is a key support level," said Martinez, adding that over 2.61 million addresses had formed an 'inferno' holding around 4.82 million ETH at that price. A break below this zone could trigger further downside volatility.

*“ $ 1,528.50是一個關鍵的支持水平，”馬丁內斯說，並補充說，超過261萬個地址以該價格構成了一個'Inferno'的持有量約為482萬ETH。在該區域下方的突破可能會觸發進一步的下行波動。

* But some Ethereum developers have proposed increasing blob fees to support L1 earnings. However, Binance analysts warned that Layer-2 networks could migrate to cheaper alternatives like Celestia or EigenLayer if minimum blob costs rise.

*但是一些以太坊開發人員提議增加斑點費用以支持L1收益。但是，Binance分析師警告說，如果最低斑點成本上升，則第2層網絡可以遷移到更便宜的替代方案，例如Celestia或Eigenlayer。

* "L2s are rational businesses," they stated, suggesting a price-sensitive dynamic that could fragment the Ethereum ecosystem further.

*他們說，“ L2是理性的業務”，提出了一種對價格敏感的動態，可以進一步片段分散以太坊生態系統。

Rising L2s Put Spotlight on ETH’s Economic Model

上升的L2S將ETH的經濟模型引起了人們的關注

Scalability improved 15.95x with Ethereum’s recent Dencun upgrade, which also accelerated data availability across Layer-2 chains.

通過以太坊最近的Dencun升級，可伸縮性提高了15.95倍，這也加速了跨第2層鏈的數據可用性。

But the upgrade slashed Layer-1 (L1) fee accrual by a large margin, weakening ETH’s utility as a revenue-generating asset, said Binance Research.

Binance Research說，但是升級的第1層（L1）費用大幅度削減了，從而削弱了ETH作為創收資產的效用。

L2s now settle for a fraction of what they previously paid on L1. This finding is crucial as it impacts the sustainability of L2s in the long term.

現在，L2會適應他們以前在L1上支付的費用的一小部分。這一發現至關重要，因為從長遠來看會影響L2的可持續性。

With L2s quickly gaining traction for their low transaction costs and efficient throughput, the narrative of ETH as ‘ultrasound money’—based on burned gas fees—has lost some ground to faster-growing blockchains like Solana and BNB Chain.

隨著L2迅速獲得其低交易成本和高效吞吐量的吸引力，ETH作為“超聲波貨幣”的敘述（基於燃燒的汽油費用）失去了一定的基礎，無法更快地增長的區塊鏈，例如Solana和BNB鏈。

Some Ethereum developers have proposed increasing blob fees to support L1 earnings. However, Binance analysts noted that L2 networks could migrate to cheaper alternatives like Celestia or EigenLayer if minimum blob costs rise.

一些以太坊開發人員提議增加斑點費用以支持L1收益。但是，Binance分析師指出，如果最低斑點成本上升，L2網絡可以遷移到更便宜的替代品，例如Celestia或Eigenlayer。

“L2s are rational businesses,” they stated, suggesting a price-sensitive dynamic that could fragment the Ethereum ecosystem further.

他們說：“ L2是理性的業務，”提出了一種對價格敏感的動態，可以進一步分散以太坊生態系統。

ETH Price Approaches Historic Buy Zone As Sentiment Weakens

Eth Price接近歷史性的買入區，隨著情感削弱

Market participants are closely monitoring as ETH approaches its realized price—a level that has historically been linked with macro bottoms.

隨著ETH接近實現的價格，市場參與者正在密切監視，這一水平與宏觀底部有關。

Analyst Abramchart highlighted that each major Ethereum bull cycle has begun near or below the lower Bollinger Band, toward which ETH is now heading.

分析師Abramchart強調說，每個主要的以太坊牛週期都始於下Bollinger頻段附近或下方，ETH現在正在向其前進。

"If the trend continues downward, it could signal deep-value accumulation," abramchart stated. However, they noted that a clean break below the band could indicate further weakness in the market.

艾布拉姆查特說：“如果趨勢持續下降，它可能會向深價值積累。”但是，他們指出，在樂隊下方的干淨突破可能表明市場上的弱點。

As ETH trades closer to or below this metric, sentiment typically turns neutral or bearish, setting the stage for potential recovery or capitulation.

隨著ETH更接近或以下該指標，情緒通常會變成中性或看跌，為潛在的恢復或投降奠定了基礎。

ETH Price Caution Urged Amid ‘Buy The Dip’ Fatigue

ETH PRISE警告敦促在“購買”蘸醬中

Short-term traders are still in a difficult position, with several popular X accounts, such as IncomeSharks, detailing personal losses from mistimed entries.

短期交易者仍然處於困難的位置，其中有幾個流行的X帳戶，例如輸入式標記，詳細介紹了誤入條目中的個人損失。

"A good example of why taking some profits is important and why you can't keep buying every single dip," they wrote.

他們寫道：“一個很好的例子說明為什麼要獲得一些利潤很重要，以及為什麼您不能繼續購買每一個蘸醬。”

The comment highlights broader market fatigue after multiple attempts to bounce failed, leaving traders skeptical of any sustained recovery, especially as bulls struggle to maintain momentum.

該評論重點介紹了多次反彈嘗試失敗後更廣泛的市場疲勞，使交易者懷疑任何持續的康復，尤其是當公牛努力維持動力時。

Volume has quickly dried up on most exchanges, and speculative buying activity has largely cooled. But historical data favors patient accumulation during these drawdowns—provided prices manage to hold above key zones.

在大多數交流中，數量很快就乾燥了，投機性購買活動在很大程度上也得到了冷卻。但是，歷史數據有利於患者在這些縮減期間的積累 - 預定的價格設法保持在關鍵區域之上。

Any decisive break below $1,528.50 could alter the trend structure significantly, as it's a level that has been crucial in past cycles due to the massive inferno of addresses formed around that price.

任何低於$ 1,528.50的決定性中斷都可能會大大改變趨勢結構，因為由於該價格圍繞該價格圍繞地址的大量地獄，這對於過去的周期至關重要。

ETH Still Outpaces Competitors In Network Security

ETH仍然超過網絡安全中的競爭對手

Despite the challenges, Ethereum still outpaces competitors in network security, having maintained over 1 million validators, in stark contrast to Celestia (100) and EigenDA (170). But the debate around value accrual remains largely unresolved.

儘管面臨挑戰，但以太坊仍在網絡安全方面的競爭對手超過100萬個驗證者，與Celestia（100）和Eigenda（170）形成鮮明對比。但是，圍繞價值應計的辯論在很大程度上尚未解決。

Binance Research highlighted "based rollups" like Taiko, which contributed more L1 fees to Ethereum than the top three L2s combined over the past year. However, upcoming upgrades—Pectra and Fusaka—do not prioritize this model, which may delay a complete solution.

Binance Research強調了Taiko之類的“基於匯總”，該研究對以太坊的L1費用比過去一年中排名前三的L2貢獻了更多。但是，即將進行的升級（Precra和Fusaka）沒有優先考慮此模型，這可能會延遲完整的解決方案。

Ethereum’s next major protocol change is due on May 7, with another one scheduled for Q4. Whether these updates will sufficiently address the current economic concerns remains to be seen.

以太坊的下一個主要協議更改將於5月7日舉行，另一項計劃為第四季度。這些更新是否會充分解決當前的經濟問題，還有待觀察。

Overall, Ethereum’s price action, on-chain behavior, and structural limitations converge at a pivotal moment. While historical indicators suggest a potential long-term bottom, whale exits and the difficulties in capturing fees paint a more cautious picture.

總體而言，以太坊的價格行動，鍊鍊行為和結構限制在關鍵時刻匯聚在一起。雖然歷史指標表明潛在的長期底部，但鯨魚的出口和捕獲費用的困難描繪了更謹慎的情況。

The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether $1,52

接下來的幾週對於確定1,52美元是否至關重要