新研究预测，比特币早在2027年就可能达到100万美元

一项新的研究预测，由于液体供应超过1,000 BTC，比特币最早可能在2027年达到100万美元。

A new study published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management predicts that Bitcoin could hit $1 million as early as 2027.

一项发表在《风险和财务管理杂志》上的新研究预测，比特币早在2027年就可能达到100万美元。

The model is based on economic fundamentals and describes a setting whereby institutional accumulation is increasing and supply is contracting quickly—driving prices at an increasingly rapid rate.

该模型基于经济基本面，并描述了机构积累正在增加和供应迅速收缩的环境，以越来越快的速度驾驶价格。

The research paper, titled ‘A Supply and Demand Framework for Bitcoin Price Forecasting,’ uses a supply and demand equilibrium model built specifically off of Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule.

该研究论文的标题为“比特币价格预测的供求框架”，使用了专门根据比特币固定发行时间表建立的供求平衡模型。

Unlike traditional commodities, Bitcoin is particularly vulnerable to supply shocks because it cannot increase production to meet increasing demand. This property is critical to the stability of the Bitcoin price system in the long term.

与传统商品不同，比特币特别容易受到供应冲击的影响，因为它不能增加产量以满足日益增长的需求。从长远来看，此属性对于比特币价格系统的稳定性至关重要。

“This parameterization suggests that Bitcoin will reach USD 1M prices by early 2027 for all levels of withdrawal >1000 Bitcoin per day,” the study, written by researchers from the University of Gaithersburg and the University of Reading, concluded.

这项研究得出：“这种参数化表明，到2027年初，每天提取> 1000个比特币的比特币将达到100万美元的价格。”

Apple CEO had a surprising way to deal with Trump's tariff policy

苹果首席执行官有一种令人惊讶的方式来处理特朗普的关税政策

Trump reportedly discussed firing Fed chair Powell, eyes ex-Fed governor Kevin Warsh

据报道，特朗普讨论了鲍威尔开枪射击主席，目光前州长凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）

Bitcoin could hit $1 million by early 2027, study finds

研究发现，到2027年初，比特币可能会达到100万美元

The researchers explained that at the level of daily withdrawals from circulating supply greater than 1,000 BTC, the price trajectory of Bitcoin goes hyperbolic, growing away from the adoption curves by 2028 (at which time the supply shortage will tell a different story), with only the scarcity of supply mattering.

研究人员解释说，在每天从循环供应中提取超过1,000 BTC的水平，比特币的价格轨迹变得双曲线，到2028年（当时供应短缺将讲述一个不同的故事），而供应问题只有稀缺性。

The authors also varied the daily withdrawal rate to assess the impact on the price dynamics. At more aggressive daily withdrawal rates of 5,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC, projections over the period 2023–2033 forecast that Bitcoin would reach $2 million by 2027 and $5 million by 2031.

作者还改变了每日提款率，以评估对价格动态的影响。在2023 - 2033年期间，预测比特币在2027年将达到200万美元，到2031年，预测比特币将达到200万美元，而到2031年，预测比特币将以5,000 BTC和10,000 BTC的更高侵略性提款率和10,000 BTC。

The researchers said such projections on the upper end of the model should not be overinterpreted. However, they added that the contextual mechanics further validate Bitcoin’s emerging position as a strategic macro-asset. As behavioral dynamics continue to move Bitcoin into long serial holders, withdrawal amounts needed for new demand will become much more price sensitive.

研究人员说，对模型上端的这种预测不应过分解释。但是，他们补充说，上下文机械师进一步验证了比特币作为战略宏观资产的新兴地位。随着行为动态继续将比特币转移到长连续持有人中，新需求所需的提款金额将变得更加敏感。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $84,523.85, with a total global cryptocurrency market cap of $2.64 trillion, as per Kraken’s price feed.

在撰写本文时，比特币的交易约为84,523.85美元，全球加密货币市值总计为2.64万亿美元，符合Kraken的价格提要。