新研究預測，比特幣早在2027年就可能達到100萬美元

一項新的研究預測，由於液體供應超過1,000 BTC，比特幣最早可能在2027年達到100萬美元。

A new study published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management predicts that Bitcoin could hit $1 million as early as 2027.

一項發表在《風險和財務管理雜誌》上的新研究預測，比特幣早在2027年就可能達到100萬美元。

The model is based on economic fundamentals and describes a setting whereby institutional accumulation is increasing and supply is contracting quickly—driving prices at an increasingly rapid rate.

該模型基於經濟基本面，並描述了機構積累正在增加和供應迅速收縮的環境，以越來越快的速度駕駛價格。

The research paper, titled ‘A Supply and Demand Framework for Bitcoin Price Forecasting,’ uses a supply and demand equilibrium model built specifically off of Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule.

該研究論文的標題為“比特幣價格預測的供求框架”，使用了專門根據比特幣固定發行時間表建立的供求平衡模型。

Unlike traditional commodities, Bitcoin is particularly vulnerable to supply shocks because it cannot increase production to meet increasing demand. This property is critical to the stability of the Bitcoin price system in the long term.

與傳統商品不同，比特幣特別容易受到供應衝擊的影響，因為它不能增加產量以滿足日益增長的需求。從長遠來看，此屬性對於比特幣價格系統的穩定性至關重要。

“This parameterization suggests that Bitcoin will reach USD 1M prices by early 2027 for all levels of withdrawal >1000 Bitcoin per day,” the study, written by researchers from the University of Gaithersburg and the University of Reading, concluded.

這項研究得出：“這種參數化表明，到2027年初，每天提取> 1000個比特幣的比特幣將達到100萬美元的價格。”

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Bitcoin could hit $1 million by early 2027, study finds

研究發現，到2027年初，比特幣可能會達到100萬美元

The researchers explained that at the level of daily withdrawals from circulating supply greater than 1,000 BTC, the price trajectory of Bitcoin goes hyperbolic, growing away from the adoption curves by 2028 (at which time the supply shortage will tell a different story), with only the scarcity of supply mattering.

研究人員解釋說，在每天從循環供應中提取超過1,000 BTC的水平，比特幣的價格軌跡變得雙曲線，到2028年（當時供應短缺將講述一個不同的故事），而供應問題只有稀缺性。

The authors also varied the daily withdrawal rate to assess the impact on the price dynamics. At more aggressive daily withdrawal rates of 5,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC, projections over the period 2023–2033 forecast that Bitcoin would reach $2 million by 2027 and $5 million by 2031.

作者還改變了每日提款率，以評估對價格動態的影響。在2023 - 2033年期間，預測比特幣在2027年將達到200萬美元，到2031年，預測比特幣將達到200萬美元，而到2031年，預測比特幣將以5,000 BTC和10,000 BTC的更高侵略性提款率和10,000 BTC。

The researchers said such projections on the upper end of the model should not be overinterpreted. However, they added that the contextual mechanics further validate Bitcoin’s emerging position as a strategic macro-asset. As behavioral dynamics continue to move Bitcoin into long serial holders, withdrawal amounts needed for new demand will become much more price sensitive.

研究人員說，對模型上端的這種預測不應過分解釋。但是，他們補充說，上下文機械師進一步驗證了比特幣作為戰略宏觀資產的新興地位。隨著行為動態繼續將比特幣轉移到長連續持有人中，新需求所需的提款金額將變得更加敏感。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $84,523.85, with a total global cryptocurrency market cap of $2.64 trillion, as per Kraken’s price feed.

在撰寫本文時，比特幣的交易約為84,523.85美元，全球加密貨幣市值總計為2.64萬億美元，符合Kraken的價格提要。