摩根大通表示比特币将在 2025 年抢尽风头，原因如下

加密货币市场的看涨情绪很高，投资者看到比特币以外的更广泛领域正在发展。

Despite optimism in the cryptocurrency market and anticipation of broader tailwinds, JPMorgan believes bitcoin will remain the primary focus rather than altcoins. Here are four reasons why investors should be cautious about flocking to altcoins:

尽管加密货币市场持乐观态度并预期会有更广泛的推动力，但摩根大通认为比特币仍将是主要焦点，而不是山寨币。以下是投资者应谨慎投资山寨币的四个原因：

1. Future policy is still speculative, and the timing and impact of new regulation on crypto remain uncertain. While reduced regulatory oversight may boost sentiment, there's no guarantee that enthusiasm for decentralized finance will increase.

1. 未来政策仍具有投机性，加密货币新监管的时机和影响仍不确定。虽然减少监管可能会提振市场情绪，但并不能保证去中心化金融的热情会增加。

Moreover, the prospect of crypto reserves being established in the US and internationally could hinge solely on bitcoin. Some states are already considering bills to stockpile the token as a hedge against inflation, an idea that could gain traction in Trump's second term.

此外，美国和国际上建立加密货币储备的前景可能完全取决于比特币。一些州已经在考虑通过储备代币以对冲通胀的法案，这一想法可能会在特朗普的第二个任期内受到关注。

2. Bitcoin has shown clear dominance in the crypto fund space, especially regarding ETFs. Retail and institutional investors are expected to continue pouring資金 into spot bitcoin ETFs, largely due to the token's characterization as digital gold.

2. 比特币在加密基金领域显示出明显的主导地位，特别是在 ETF 方面。预计散户和机构投资者将继续向现货比特币 ETF 注入资金，这主要是由于该代币被视为数字黄金。

In December, Bernstein predicted that bitcoin will eventually replace gold as the world economy's premier store-of-value asset over the next decade.

去年 12 月，伯恩斯坦预测，比特币最终将取代黄金，成为未来十年世界经济首要的价值储存资产。

According to JPMorgan, bitcoin attracted a hefty 35% share of the total $78 billion inflows into the crypto market in 2024.

根据摩根大通的数据，2024 年加密市场总资金流入 780 亿美元中，比特币占据了 35% 的份额。

This contrasts sharply with the relatively meager flows into spot ethereum ETFs, which have only managed to accumulate around $2.4 billion since launching in July.

这与流入以太坊现货 ETF 的相对微薄的资金形成鲜明对比，自 7 月推出以来，现货 ETF 只积累了约 24 亿美元。

The bank also anticipates limited inflows into future ETFs for altcoins, such as solana.

该银行还预计，未来 solana 等山寨币 ETF 的资金流入将有限。

3. The bitcoin network is evolving to compete with tokens that have more defined use cases, such as ethereum.

3. 比特币网络正在不断发展，以与具有更明确用例的代币（例如以太坊）竞争。

Historically, bitcoin has been largely viewed as a buy-and-hold asset with minimal utility. However, programmers are working to expand its functionality, and new smart contract capabilities will enhance its utility.

从历史上看，比特币在很大程度上被视为一种效用极小的购买并持有资产。然而，程序员正在努力扩展其功能，新的智能合约功能将增强其实用性。

In contrast, public blockchains like ethereum may face challenges, as large institutions could opt for private blockchains, which are developing customized solutions for institutional investors, JPMorgan notes.

摩根大通指出，相比之下，以太坊等公共区块链可能面临挑战，因为大型机构可能会选择私有区块链，而私有区块链正在为机构投资者开发定制解决方案。

4. New altcoin projects require time to mature and demonstrate sustained value.

4. 新的山寨币项目需要时间来成熟并展示持续价值。

Typically, decentralized initiatives experience early success driven by hype, but user activity eventually wanes, eroding a token's value.

通常情况下，去中心化计划会在炒作的推动下取得早期成功，但用户活动最终会减弱，从而侵蚀代币的价值。

To achieve longevity, projects must showcase enduring application benefits, the bank highlights.

该银行强调，为了实现长寿，项目必须展示持久的应用优势。

Given this dynamic, investors shouldn't expect a direct repeat of the 2021 crypto bull run, where projects largely succeeded through token distribution.

鉴于这种动态，投资者不应期望 2021 年的加密货币牛市会直接重演，当时的项目主要通过代币分配取得成功。

Instead, the industry is shifting towards developing blockchain capabilities.

相反，该行业正在转向开发区块链功能。

"In this model, profits from successful projects often benefit private corporations, diverting value from crypto tokens," JPMorgan concludes.

摩根大通总结道：“在这种模式中，成功项目的利润通常有利于私营企业，从而转移了加密代币的价值。”

The bank also points out that MicroStrategy is only halfway through its plan to plow $42 billion into bitcoin.

该银行还指出，MicroStrategy 斥资 420 亿美元投资比特币的计划仅完成一半。

The software firm has become renowned for its massive bitcoin accumulation strategy, using both equity and loan financing.

该软件公司因其采用股权和贷款融资的大规模比特币积累策略而闻名。

MicroStrategy's substantial purchases have been a key tailwind for the token, with the company accounting for 28% of crypto inflows last year.

MicroStrategy 的大量购买一直是该代币的关键推动力，该公司占去年加密货币流入的​​ 28%。