摩根大通表示比特幣將在 2025 年搶盡風頭，原因如下

加密貨幣市場的看漲情緒很高，投資者看到比特幣以外的更廣泛領域正在發展。

Despite optimism in the cryptocurrency market and anticipation of broader tailwinds, JPMorgan believes bitcoin will remain the primary focus rather than altcoins. Here are four reasons why investors should be cautious about flocking to altcoins:

儘管加密貨幣市場持樂觀態度並預期會有更廣泛的推動力，但摩根大通認為比特幣仍將是主要焦點，而不是山寨幣。以下是投資者應謹慎投資山寨幣的四個原因：

1. Future policy is still speculative, and the timing and impact of new regulation on crypto remain uncertain. While reduced regulatory oversight may boost sentiment, there's no guarantee that enthusiasm for decentralized finance will increase.

1. 未來政策仍具有投機性，加密貨幣新監管的時機和影響仍不確定。雖然減少監管可能會提振市場情緒，但並不能保證去中心化金融的熱情會增加。

Moreover, the prospect of crypto reserves being established in the US and internationally could hinge solely on bitcoin. Some states are already considering bills to stockpile the token as a hedge against inflation, an idea that could gain traction in Trump's second term.

此外，美國和國際上建立加密貨幣儲備的前景可能完全取決於比特幣。一些州已經在考慮通過儲備代幣以對沖通貨膨脹的法案，這一想法可能會在川普的第二個任期內受到關注。

2. Bitcoin has shown clear dominance in the crypto fund space, especially regarding ETFs. Retail and institutional investors are expected to continue pouring資金 into spot bitcoin ETFs, largely due to the token's characterization as digital gold.

2. 比特幣在加密基金領域顯示出明顯的主導地位，特別是在 ETF 方面。預計散戶和機構投資者將繼續向現貨比特幣 ETF 注入資金，這主要是由於該代幣被視為數位黃金。

In December, Bernstein predicted that bitcoin will eventually replace gold as the world economy's premier store-of-value asset over the next decade.

去年 12 月，伯恩斯坦預測，比特幣最終將取代黃金，成為未來十年世界經濟首要的價值儲存資產。

According to JPMorgan, bitcoin attracted a hefty 35% share of the total $78 billion inflows into the crypto market in 2024.

根據摩根大通的數據，2024 年加密貨幣市場總流入額為 780 億美元，其中比特幣佔了 35% 的份額。

This contrasts sharply with the relatively meager flows into spot ethereum ETFs, which have only managed to accumulate around $2.4 billion since launching in July.

這與流入以太坊現貨 ETF 的相對微薄的資金形成鮮明對比，自 7 月推出以來，現貨 ETF 只累積了約 24 億美元。

The bank also anticipates limited inflows into future ETFs for altcoins, such as solana.

該銀行還預計，未來 solana 等山寨幣 ETF 的資金流入將有限。

3. The bitcoin network is evolving to compete with tokens that have more defined use cases, such as ethereum.

3. 比特幣網路正在不斷發展，以與具有更明確用例的代幣（例如以太坊）競爭。

Historically, bitcoin has been largely viewed as a buy-and-hold asset with minimal utility. However, programmers are working to expand its functionality, and new smart contract capabilities will enhance its utility.

從歷史上看，比特幣在很大程度上被視為一種效用極小的購買並持有資產。然而，程式設計師正在努力擴展其功能，新的智慧合約功能將增強其實用性。

In contrast, public blockchains like ethereum may face challenges, as large institutions could opt for private blockchains, which are developing customized solutions for institutional investors, JPMorgan notes.

摩根大通指出，相較之下，以太坊等公共區塊鏈可能面臨挑戰，因為大型機構可能會選擇私有區塊鏈，而私有區塊鏈正在為機構投資者開發客製化解決方案。

4. New altcoin projects require time to mature and demonstrate sustained value.

4. 新的山寨幣專案需要時間來成熟並展示持續價值。

Typically, decentralized initiatives experience early success driven by hype, but user activity eventually wanes, eroding a token's value.

通常情況下，去中心化計畫會在炒作的推動下取得早期成功，但用戶活動最終會減弱，從而侵蝕代幣的價值。

To achieve longevity, projects must showcase enduring application benefits, the bank highlights.

該銀行強調，為了實現長壽，該專案必須展現持久的應用優勢。

Given this dynamic, investors shouldn't expect a direct repeat of the 2021 crypto bull run, where projects largely succeeded through token distribution.

鑑於這種動態，投資者不應期望 2021 年的加密貨幣牛市會直接重演，當時的專案主要透過代幣分配取得成功。

Instead, the industry is shifting towards developing blockchain capabilities.

相反，該行業正在轉向開發區塊鏈功能。

"In this model, profits from successful projects often benefit private corporations, diverting value from crypto tokens," JPMorgan concludes.

摩根大通總結道：“在這種模式中，成功項目的利潤通常有利於私營企業，從而轉移了加密代幣的價值。”

The bank also points out that MicroStrategy is only halfway through its plan to plow $42 billion into bitcoin.

該銀行還指出，MicroStrategy 斥資 420 億美元投資比特幣的計畫僅完成一半。

The software firm has become renowned for its massive bitcoin accumulation strategy, using both equity and loan financing.

該軟體公司因其採用股權和貸款融資的大規模比特幣累積策略而聞名。

MicroStrategy's substantial purchases have been a key tailwind for the token, with the company accounting for 28% of crypto inflows last year.

MicroStrategy 的大量購買一直是該代幣的關鍵推動力，該公司佔去年加密貨幣流入的 28%。