摩根大通分析师预测比特币在减半前下跌

摩根大通分析师预测，在 4 月份减半事件之前，比特币 (BTC) 价格将进一步下跌。他们将此归因于市场超买、ETF 现货流入量下降以及投资者获利了结。分析师表示，减半后比特币价格可能会跌至 42,000 美元，因为挖矿奖励的减少将降低生产成本。

Bitcoin's Slide to Continue Ahead of Halving, JP Morgan Analysts Say

摩根大通分析师表示，比特币减半前将继续下滑

In the wake of Bitcoin's recent descent from its early-month highs, JP Morgan analysts are sounding the alarm, predicting further price declines.

在比特币最近从月初高点下跌之后，摩根大通分析师拉响了警报，预测价格将进一步下跌。

Is Bitcoin Overbought?

比特币是否超买？

JP Morgan analysts have been keeping a keen eye on the futures market, and they believe Bitcoin is currently overbought. They point to the premium of futures prices over spot prices and the high level of positioning in futures markets as evidence of this overbought condition.

摩根大通分析师一直密切关注期货市场，他们认为比特币目前已经超买。他们指出，期货价格相对于现货价格的溢价以及期货市场的高仓位是这种超买状况的证据。

Outflows From Bitcoin ETFs

比特币 ETF 资金流出

Another factor supporting their bearish view is the decline in Bitcoin spot ETFs. Since March 18, there have been net outflows from BTC ETFs, with the largest single-day net outflow of $320 million occurring on March 19.

支持他们看跌观点的另一个因素是比特币现货 ETF 的下跌。自3月18日以来，BTC ETF出现净流出，其中最大单日净流出发生在3月19日，达3.2亿美元。

Halving Jitters

紧张感减半

Adding fuel to the fire is the upcoming Bitcoin halving event scheduled for April 2024. Halving events have historically been associated with increased price volatility and speculation. Analysts believe that investors who have profited from the recent surge are likely to cash out ahead of the halving, further driving down the price.

定于 2024 年 4 月举行的比特币减半事件将火上浇油。从历史上看，减半事件与价格波动和投机加剧有关。分析师认为，从近期飙升中获利的投资者可能会在减半之前套现，从而进一步压低价格。

Target Price of $42,000

目标价 42,000 美元

JP Morgan analysts have gone so far as to predict that BTC prices could drop to $42,000 after the halving. This forecast is based on their analysis of Bitcoin's production costs, also known as mining costs.

摩根大通分析师甚至预测减半后 BTC 价格可能会跌至 42,000 美元。这一预测基于他们对比特币生产成本（也称为挖矿成本）的分析。

Production Costs as a Floor

生产成本作为底线

Analysts have observed that the production cost of Bitcoin has historically served as a lower bound for its price. In other words, BTC's price tends to remain above the cost incurred by miners in producing new coins.

分析师观察到，比特币的生产成本历来是其价格的下限。换句话说，比特币的价格往往保持在矿工生产新币的成本之上。

Halving to Lower Costs

减半以降低成本

With the halving reducing mining rewards, analysts estimate that the cost of producing Bitcoin will fall to around $42,000. This analysis suggests that BTC's price could decline to this level and represent the new lower bound based on mining costs.

随着挖矿奖励减半，分析师估计比特币的生产成本将降至 42,000 美元左右。该分析表明，比特币的价格可能会跌至这一水平，并代表基于采矿成本的新下限。

Conclusion

结论

While Bitcoin's future is always uncertain, JP Morgan analysts are betting on further price declines. The overbought condition, outflows from BTC ETFs, and the upcoming halving event are all factors that they believe will continue to weigh on the cryptocurrency's value.

尽管比特币的未来始终不确定，但摩根大通分析师押注价格将进一步下跌。他们认为，超买状况、BTC ETF 资金流出以及即将到来的减半事件将继续影响加密货币的价值。